Flat Racing Wednesday 9th January

[nickf88]

4:10 Kempton - Mr Optimistic - 2pts Win 12/1, Bet365 Looks a fair bit of value in this race despite it being a class 7 as this horse was rated as high as 81 in it's reappearance from a 199 day break in May 2012. Since then it's gone all down hill from there with that handicap mark of 80 dropping to tomorrow's 49! However, this is only it's second run for Paul Howling after being trained for P G Murphy and it's first run for Howling showed enough promise to consider this horse a decent bet for tomorrow, finishing 4 and 3/4 lengths off the winner despite finishing 8th. It's run though looked a lot better than it's shown in the recent past, as it turned for home at Lingfield it looked to be in control despite coming around the bend the longest way but didn't pick up as maybe expected. This horse may well be a bit of a monkey but considering the huge drop in weights and it's past wins coming over 5 furlongs on AW tracks tomorrow may be the day a much better showing is expected (6 furlongs at Lingfield last time).

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 9th January 1.30 Lingfield Desperate selling handicap but one sticks out like a sore thumb as above standard for this grade. The Noble Ord is a reasonable sort who usually races in over shorter and has enough to prove over this sort of trip. Kings Road ran a much better race last time out in a selling handicap hurdle race but this trip looks a bare minimum even if putting best foot forward. Temuco has been well backed and does have the form to be competitive in a race like this but the trip is a worry having done very little over trips like this in the past and despite the yard going very well and jockey a very strong booking has enough to prove. Fairy Mist ran one of her better races last time out when getting much closer over 7f at Lingfield but is another that hasn’t showed much over trips like this. Percythepinto is a much better horse than many of these, he looked a Southwell specialist last year but proved himself effective on the polytrack around here on penultimate start winning over a mile trip travelling well and running on strongly. He too hasn’t ever raced over this sort of trip but does shape as if the step up wouldn’t be a problem. Effort last time out was extremely disappointing although easy enough to excuse because he did travel strongly as is his trademark before being outpaced and that was over 7f so this step up should suit him much better. 2pt win Percythepinto 7/2 hills 3.45 Lingfield Another race that doesn’t look particularly strong. Novebridge won nicely last time out running on well but a 6lb penalty leaves him looking vunerable given he has never been on a mark this high and always struggled off marks in the high 60’s. Charming was behind Novabridge last time out and a 6lb turnaround in the weights should mean she gets a lot closer, she is 4lb below her winning mark at Folkestone in the summer and will be interesting to see if she can back that effort up now with the hood needing to work again. Molly Jones was behind Novabridge and Charming last time out and will need to find more to turn it around with those 2 although is much better drawn now. Fathom Five isn’t the force of old but he does retain some ability and does appear to be getting closer, he is 26lb below his last winning mark. Went off to hard last time out but still only beaten 2l and tries the visor for the first time now and is defenetily interesting in this field. 2pt win Fathom Five 10/3 Betfred