valuepunter Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Don't want to clutter up the forum too much so I'll be putting my picks in here unless there's another thread. Record: 10W-13L-1P -2.63 units Just realized I'm 0-8 on over/unders so probably best to fade me on those lol. On the positive side I'm 10-5 on spread and ml picks so will look to keep that up tonight. Fri 04/01 Picks: Houston -1.5 @ 2.1 - 2 units Indiana +2.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units Indiana -4 @ 3.25 - 1 unit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Houston -1.5 @ 2.1 - 2 units :D Indiana +2.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units :eyes Indiana -4 @ 3.25 - 1 unit :eyes Clippers -4.5 @ 1.95 - 1 unit :D (posted here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/136654-NBA-4th-of-January) Todays record: 2W-2L +0.15 units Updated record: 12W-15L-1P -2.48 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Sat 05/01 Picks BOS Celtics @ ATL Hawks Hawks -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units The Celtics put on an impressive defensive performance last night against the Pacers, but the Pacers horrible shooting percentages on the night made the scoreline a bit flattering. But the Celtics are an aging team on the second leg of a b2b and are a very different proposition on the road with a 5-11 away record (Atlanta are 11-5 at home this season). In the previous 4 games before beating the Pacers, the Celtics were allowing 104.5 PPG and averaging only 84.8 themselves, and I expect a return to similar form here. The Celtics record ATS as an away dog is 2-7-1. HOU Rockets @ CLE Cavaliers Rockets -6 @ 1.91 - 2 units Rockets -10.5 @ 2.88 - 1 unit I'll preface this by saying I may be a little biased here, but the Rockets are flying at the moment (ba dum dum tshhh). They've won 8 of their last 10, only losing to top 3 sides SA Spurs and OKC Thunder, and have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10. Their average PPG seems to increase every time I look at it, and they're the highest scoring team in the NBA with 106.1PPG (Cleveland average 94.2 overall, 93.3 at home). The Rockets defense, for the most part, is horrible. Absolutely atrocious, as shown in the 2nd quarter last night against the Bucks, where they allowed 37 points in the second quarter. But then we witnessed what happens when a top scoring team actually pays attention to playing defense, and they pulled out a 30-14 shutout in the 3rd quarter, turning an 11 point deficit into a 5 point lead which the Bucks could never recover from. No doubt the Rockets will be on a high after that performance and hopefully they can take away a lesson on the importance of defense. One thing that's in no doubt - the Rockets pace will be as relentless as always. They like to play fast and put up big points, but if they can also show even glimpses of the defensive performance they put on in the 3rd quarter last night they could absolutely destroy Cleveland who have a 3-11 home record this year.[TABLE=class: sortable] [TR=class: div_311 team_358] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: sortable] [TR=class: div_311 team_358] [TD=align: right][/TD] [TD=align: right][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: POR TBlazers @ MIN TWolves Portland +6.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Love was questionable but now expected to be out for the TWolves after news he has refractured his right hand. Rubio still out. This will be a tough test for Minnesota without their leading scorer Love, and the line has only moved from 7.5 to 6.5 since news got out he isn't playing. Happy to take the 6.5 points on Portland here after just beating the Grizzlies and Knicks away in their last 3 games and when MIN is without Love. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks BOS Celtics @ ATL Hawks Hawks -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Hawks had a nice 15 point lead at half time and threw it away in spectacular fashion in the 3rd quarter. HOU Rockets @ CLE Cavaliers Rockets -6 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Rockets -10.5 @ 2.88 - 1 unit :eyes Close, Houston won by 8. Feel like Cleveland's impressive free throw % is the only reason this didn't come in. Not sure what the end % was but at one point they were 100% with 17/17 and their first free throw miss was in the final minute of the game! POR TBlazers @ MIN TWolves Portland +6.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit :D Todays record: 2W-2L -0.27 units Updated record: 14W-17L-1P -2.75 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Sunday 07/01 Picks CHA Bobcats @ DET Pistons Under 194.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Bobcats +9 @ 1.8 - 2 units MEM Grizzlies @ PHE Suns Suns + 4.5 @ 2.00 - 2 units Under 185.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks CHA Bobcats @ DET Pistons Under 194.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :@ Bobcats +9 @ 1.8 - 2 units :D I fancied the bobcats to keep it close, but they kept it too bloody close and tied it up at 96-96 (192 points) at the end of regular time, taking it to overtime and leaving my under 194.5 bet with blue balls... so close MEM Grizzlies @ PHE Suns Suns + 4.5 @ 2.00 - 2 units :eyes Under 185.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Today's record: 2W-2L -0.38 units Updated record: 16W-19L-1P -3.13 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Monday 07/01 Picks SA Spurs @ NO Hornets Spurs -7.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units This line has already moved to -8 most places but paddypower still has the 7.5 so I'm jumping on this before it moves. I'm expecting it to move to -8.5/-9 throughout the day. Hornets average 87.4 PPG at home Spurs average 104.7 PPG away Spurs are 22-13-1 ATS and 13-7 SU on the road Hornets are 16-17 ATS and 3-12 SU at home DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz Jazz -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Also leaning towards the grizzlies and bulls on gut instinct but still need to crunch some numbers. Should have at least one more bet posted later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Monday 07/01 Picks SA Spurs @ NO Hornets Spurs -7.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz Jazz -5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D Also leaning towards the grizzlies and bulls on gut instinct but still need to crunch some numbers. Should have at least one more bet posted later. Never pulled the trigger on the grizzlies or bulls, so of course both covered the spread lol, sod's law. Could've been a 3-1 day Today's record: 1W-1L -0.18 units Updated NBA record: 17W-20L-1P -3.31 units Tues 08/01 Picks Getting this one in early, Miami are about to start a 6 game road stretch and I think they'll want to start it off strong and send a message here. They've had a couple of days rest since their last game, and although the Pacers have overperformed at home that run won't last forever, and the Heat are more than capable of winning what they will see as a key game for morale going into that road stretch. MIA Heat @ IND Pacers Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: ATL Hawks @ MIN Timberwolves Hawks +1 @ 1.91 - 2 units Under 188.5 @ 1.90 - 2 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks MIA Heat @ IND Pacers Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes ATL Hawks @ MIN Timberwolves Hawks +1 @ 1.91 - 2 units :eyes Under 188.5 @ 1.90 - 2 units :eyes Worst night since I started this on boxing day, put a lot less time into researching these so lesson learned. Anyone looking for a winning strategy should seriously just go the opposite of my over/under bets, now 1-10 on those lol. Todays record: 0W-3L -6 units Updated NBA record: 17W-23L-1P -9.31 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Wed 09/01 Picks PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors Raptors -4 @ 1.91 - 2 units 76ers PPG: 92.8 away 91.1 Raptors PPG: 96.7 home: 98.6 76ers allow: 96.9 away: 96.2 Raptors allow: 99.5 home 95.7 76ers played 5 games since new year, 4 on the road. Raptors played 3 games since new year, all at home. 76ers have 3 wins in last 10 games Raptors have 7 wins in last 10 games. 76ers are 6-10 ATS as an away dog Raptors are 5-3 ATS as home fave 76ers coach talking about their last game's loss to Brooklyn: "I thought we were an incredibly tired team, I think we played that way," coach Doug Collins said. "No rest for the weary. Got to get on a plane and go to Toronto." They don't sound up for the game. They will be looking forward to their upcoming 2 days break and then 4 straight home games, and 11 out of 12 of their next games are at home, so this is a game they will just want to get out of the way after playing 8 straight road games before their most recent loss to Brooklyn. Raptors are the much fresher team and they have the revenge factor as they lost their last 2 straight to philly. But the raptors have been much better from december while the 76ers have been in a real slump and struggling with their hectic road schedule, going 5-15 since the start of december and 2-11 on the road. I expect the 76ers to really struggle here and I don't see much fight in them at the moment with a dismal performance against the Nets last game. The Raptors aren't exactly setting the world alight but they've been strong at home recently and should have enough to dispatch a tired, sick-of-travelling 76ers team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks Added: MEM Grizzlies @ GS Warriors Warriors -1.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units Grizzlies PPG: 94.8 96.4 away Warriors PPG: 101.4 102.6 home Grizzlies allow: 89.1 91.9 away Warriors allow: 99.1 96.8 home Grizzlies are 9-6 away Warriors are 11-4 home Grizzlies are 3-3 ATS as away dog Warriors are 8-2 ATS as home fave Grizzlies toughest road opponent since XMas was @Pacers, where they lost 88-83 Warriors toughest home opponent since XMas was vs Clippers, where they won 115-94. Grizzlies have played 4 games since new years, 3 of them on the road. This will be their 3rd road game in 4 nights. Warriors have played 2 games since new years, 1 on the road. Warriors have the revenge factor after losing their season opening home game to the Grizzlies. This should be a close game and a big factor will be how the Grizzlies perform on defense, but with the odds virtually a "pick em", the Warriors with home advantage and confident after just beating the Clippers in their last home game and the Grizzlies on their 3rd road game in 4 days, this looks like a good spot for the Warriors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 9, 2013 Author Share Posted January 9, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks 3rd bet for today, have a couple more leans but I really like all 3 of these bets so may leave it like this. Houston Rockets @ NO Hornets Rockets -2.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units Rockets PPG: 106.8 away: 104.0 Hornets PPG: 91.8 home: 87.8 Rockets allow: 103.7 away: 104.8 Hornets allow: 97.3, home: 94.5 Rockets won their last 4 straight road games and are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. Hornets are 1-3 in their last 4 home games, and 4-6 in their last 10 overall. Rockets have scored over 100 points in 8 of their last 10, over 110 in 7 of their last 10, and over 120 in 4 of their last 10. Hornets last scored over 100 points 13 games ago, and have only scored 100+ in regular time 4 times in 34 games. I won't go more into the stats because this is more a game of styles than stats. The Hornets just put up a brilliant defensive performance against the Spurs, and made the game really frustrating for them (and me, because I was backing spurs). Some of the best defensive play I've seen from any team this season, which is pretty shocking considering the Hornets are 9-25 and 4-13 at home. But they're playing the Rockets who I've been in love with this season, and right now they just don't look like losing to anyone outside the top 6 or so teams. When they go behind they always seem to have an extra gear to switch into, and they haven't struggled at all against strong defensive teams - they beat Memphis (#1 defense) by 25 points just before christmas and went to Chicago (#3 defense) and beat them by 23 on christmas day. So while the Hornets defense has looked good I still can't see them really holding Houston back much, especially with the form Harden is in. And although the Rockets defense is virtually non-existent, they can outscore just about anyone and with the Hornets averaging just 87.8PPG at home , they will have to overperform at both ends of the court to keep this close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors Raptors -4 @ 1.91 - 2 units :D MEM Grizzlies @ GS Warriors Warriors -1.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units :( Houston Rockets @ NO Hornets Rockets -2.5 @ 2.04 - 2 units :( Todays record: 1W-2L -2.18 units Updated NBA record: 18W-25L-1P -11.49 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valuepunter Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Re: VP's NBA Picks I haven't given up on this, just had a couple of bad nights so took a couple of days off betting and just watched the games. Sun 14 Jan Picks OKC Thunder @ POR TBlazers Thunder -4.5 @ 1.98 - 2 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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