BBOTD Saturday 5th

[cpo]

3.40 Sandown Alfie Spinner 0.5pt EW @ 7/1 paddypower Connections have chosen the easier option for this horse and he certainly does look to have an excellent opportunity of getting his 2nd win over fences. He has taken well to fences despite just winning once and has filled the places on 4 occasions. He fell the first time in his career last time out in the Hennessy but before that he ran a good race in grade 3 company at Ascot to finish 3rd on his reappearance. He was entitled to need that run but never got any further than the 2nd fence at Newbury. If none the worse for that fall I would expect him to at least make the places here. He is very consistent and will handle the ground. There are no stamina concerns for him as he proved when finishing 5th in the 4 miler at Cheltenham last year. This will only be his 2nd start in a handicap if you don't count his run last time out and I feel he is well handicapped off 138 and there is certainly room to manoeuvre. His last 9 runs have come at 3m+ so I think he is by far best equipped for this race. Noel Fehily gets the leg up on this horse for the first time but I see that as a positive as he is the top jockey at Sandown if you take Barry Geraghty out of the equation. I would much rather take a chance on Alfie Spinner than either of the current joint favourites in Johns Spirit and Royal Charm who are yet to prove themselves at the distance. This will be a real slog in the conditions and I would rather have a proven ground and distance horse on my side. Fruity O Rooney is a horse I like but I feel the trainer isn't in the best of form. Hey Big Spender certainly will get this trip but again I don't think the yard is in the best of form. Plus that one was pulled up last time out and has to prove his well being. Katenko is very interesting for Venetia Williams on only his 2nd start for the yard. He put up a big effort last time out behind Wyck Hill at Ascot but that only came 2 weeks ago and both horses finished extremely tired. I think Alfie Spinner is by far the most reliable of this lot to give his running. Conditions are fine for him and the trainer obviously sees this as a winnable race so for me he is the bet.

[gstomlinson]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 5th 3.20 Chepstow - Welsh National - Triggerman Going to go for a big outsider here, as there doesn't seem to be much value at the top of the market for such a competitive race (Teaforthree is a nice sort but is way overpriced in my opinion). Triggerman won twice during 2010/11 in two competitive handicaps, and followed that up with a respectable 4th in the Bet365 Gold Cup run over this distance in April 2011. The horse made his return at Cheltenham in November, and shaped with much promise when finishing 6/14. If he can kick on from that run, then he should have a much better chance here than the market suggests. Top jockey in Richard Johnson on board, the ground might be a bit of an unknown quantity for the horse but, if he takes to it well, he could have an great chance here. 50/1 represents cracking value. ​1pt win @ 50/1 Bet365