Neil M's US Racing System

[NeilM]

I've thought for some time that the US racing market could provide value for UK punters. This is mainly driven by my experience in the industry and the fairly decent Tote returns you can get on a win (and even on the show). The sheer amount of free statistical information gathered by various US publications as well as the characteristics typical of how races are run/managed means that a system can easily be developed, the focus on sectional times being one example. Most horses run at only one or two venues, the surfaces are nearly all artificial, tracks are all left handed (apparently some aren't but I can't find where), and horses generally run regularly so there is less worry about 'goes well fresh' etc. That said, I like the view that it's the third run after a lay off that is the most significant rather than the first. I've been looking for a system for a while now and have found one which I've tweaked to suit me (and hopefully a few others if it ends up being decent) and which with these changes can be applied to racing in the UK. Method: The system I've gone for is based on allocating points and taking them off once another element is factored in. I'm only rating the last three runs and assigning points for first, second, third and fourth. Win = 35 Place = 25 Show = 15 Fourth = 10 I'm adding the total number together and then subtracting this figure from the weight to be carried. For example, a horse with a score of 60 that is carrying 118lbs will have a rating of 58. The lowest rated horse will be the selection. After a lot of consideration and messing around with various sets of figures I'm including fourth place as it adds in another element without being an unnecessary factor. I may take it out in future and additionally I may only include runs at that course, distance or both- at the moment neither is not a factor. Because of the amount of racing across the pond, it could take hours to make a selection: tomorrow there are 16 meetings each with at least 8 races and some with ten. I'll be picking from the race meetings listed in the Timeform US SmartPlays but not those races. They have at most three and usually two. I'll be rating as many races as possible but only having three bets which I'll just pick at random to reduce the number of bets. How I will be betting: I'm a bit dubious about Tote bets as I like taking a price. Betfair have priced markets available but because of the lack of liquidity in them, prices only tend to become attractive a short time before the race, rather like the greyhound markets. I'm not going to wait for money to start moving especially given the time of day so will be taking BSP where possible. This also reduces the hassle of rounding up and down etc if placing the bets via a UK bookmaker and makes calculating returns a lot easier. Bets will be 1pt win at BSP but I am considering introducing an element for place betting if this system produces a lot of places or shows. Risks: I expect the system to produce a lot of short prices as horses with a good rating will be the better ones. I'd generally avoid short priced favs in the UK but because of the nature of the system and taking BSP I accept that I'm exposed to this. Consequently, a large number of bets may result in only a small relative profit with the risk that even a short losing run will wipe out gains. Possible future developments: Inclusion of a place element to the bet- we know that short priced and especially odds on favs place regularly so this could be introduced to iron out returns. There is no BSP available for this so would be taking a price. If I go down this road I'll review whether I need to keep fourth place or bin it: early thoughts are that I'd keep it in as a lot of fourths could indicate that a horse stands a decent chance of at least getting a show next time. I may also go for course, distance or C&D results only when I'm more used to the system but at the moment want to keep it simple. Also that approach could result in a massive drop in potential selections and could make it practically impossible to rate a race. I'm also considering adding in an element for trainer and jockey booking but wonder if this would be moving away. too much from what is meant to be only about numbers: the advantage is that it could help develop my knowledge of who is a course specialist etc. Finally and most importantly, I think this is the kind of system that could work well on our AW racing and especially Southwell as we know that there are a number of course specialists there so once the flood damage is sorted I'm going to consider applying this method at that track. I'm concerned that it would only be possible to apply ratings in races where all the runners have Southwell form so may include a numerical element to iron that out so every runner could be given a score or only take AW runs regardless of surface. Even an 8 race card could be done fairly quickly. Selections start tomorrow and if anyone has suggestions on how I can tweak or adapt the system I'd be more than happy to hear them. System Amendments 4th January 2013 OK, so barely a day in and I'm going for a substantial change: I'll be focussing on Aqueduct only and races where every single horse has had at least four runs. This should reduce the amount of time I need to spend and also help to refine the system further for use in the UK. I am also tempted to trial it at Meydan but as racing there isn't on every day, I'm likely to leave it for now while things bed in.

[jayalexander]

Re: Neil M's US Racing System Good luck, Neil :ok