NBA: Boxing Day Picks

[valuepunter]

Not sure what the protocol is on making threads so sorry if I'm stepping on any toes but didn't see a suitable thread for tonight picks. So let's get to it: NO Hornets @ ORL Magic Magic -2.5 @ 1.88 - 1 unit Simple pick here, the Hornets are on an 11 game losing streak, and even blew a 22 point lead at home vs Indiana on saturday. They don't look capable of finishing games strongly and although the stats have this game close, I fully expect Orlando to cover this line. MIA Heat @ CHA Bobcats MIA Heat HT/FT @ 1.5 - 1 unit The Heat are deservedly big faves here, and I find myself in the annoying spot of wanting to back them but not being comfortable with a 10 point handicap. Miami should win and should do it comfortably, I'm just not a fan of backing faves on big handicaps, so I'll take them HF/FT. Some first half stats: Miami average 52.6 1H this season, 50.6 away, 53 in last 3 games Charlotte average 46.9 1H this season, 47.4 home, 47 in last 3 games Miami allow 50.4 1H this season, 50.8 away, 44.3 in last 3 games Charlotte allow 54 1H this season, 52.4 home, 62 in last 3 games NY Knicks @ Phoenix Suns Knicks -2 @ 1.91 - 2 units HOU Rockets @ MIN Timberwolves Rockets +5.5 @ 2 - 2 units This line feels like a gift, Rockets are averaging 106 PPG vs MIN's 95.5, and although Timberwolves have a strong home defense I can't see them holding Houston back enough to get the win, let alone cover the -5.5. Houston are also coming off a nice 4 streak, winning by 20+ points in 3 of those games, and are certainly the team with the momentum right now. LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Under 214.5 @ 1.91 - 1 unit Lakers +3.5 @ 1.99 - 1 unit Lakers are the better team IMO, and with Nash coming back to join the ranks they've got a certain spring in their step, and always looked like they were going to snatch a tight win despite trailing for most of the game vs the Knicks. Expect another big game from Kobe and Metta and the Lakers to outscore them on 3 pointers by a good margin. Unders is too high. Cavaliers @ Wizards Cavaliers Win 1st Quarter @2.1 - 1 unit Crazy line, Cavs should be fave here as far as I'm concerned and the stats point towards a 25-20ish win. Cleveland average 24.2 Q1, 25.4 away, 22.3 in last 3 games Washington average 20.1 Q1, 21.1 home, 17.7 in last 3 games OPP POINTS SCORED Cleveland allow 24.7, 25.6 away, 23.0 in last 3 Washington allow 25.8, 25.8 home, 26 in last 3

[valuepunter]

Re: NBA: Boxing Day Picks

Cavaliers @ Wizards Cavaliers Win 1st Quarter @2.1 - 1 unit :(

Disappointing start. Wizards came out strong, Cavs were creating chances and forcing turnovers but couldn't find the net, hitting the rim repeatedly on easy layups and 2 fouls not called. Still think there was value in the bet, Wizards just overperformed while Cavs screwed up.