zbrochu Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Key of my method is that I do keep track of real form of the team. Sometimes one team play a decent game but lose the game in some mysterious unlucky accident. Bookmakers are not sophisticated enough when they make lines for this hundreds of bets every week. They take rather widely available stats and set up odds. Because I keep track of more detailed stats, and I watch the games and I track progress of teams very closely, I think I have a chance to get some advantage over bookmakers and to select most undervalued teams. Rules: 1) Football Underdogs ODDS > 3.00 2) Only most popular leagues 3) Stake: flat 10/10 for each bet 4) Bookmakers: mainly Pinn, sometimes Bet365 5) Selecting "unlucky" teams that are likely to show good performance. The ones that "should" and deserve to be higher in league position. More about strategy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PwoZMfLVoY It is very stressful to put this video here on British forum, because of my accent - I am not an english speaker :$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Some of this odds might be lower now as I placed them on Monday GETAFE 6.47 TROYES 9.32 LEYTON ORIENT 4.03 BURNLEY 3.25 PETERBOROUGH 3.78 NORWICH 4.21 SUNDERLAND 3.94 BARNSLEY 5.57 EVIAN 5.31 SOCHAUX 7.65 WIMBLEDON 5.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy How do you work out if a team is 'unlucky'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I run a rating system for teams, I watch plenty of games, I follow information. If I know a team perform well but keep losing or keep having draws, we could say they are "unlucky". It is simple question you asked theonepunter , but we have no space nor time to discuss it in details I am afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy It looks like in Valencia - Getafe game, the hosts are attracting 92% of money while my team - Getafe only 5%. But I still like this pick a lot. Of course Valencia is favourite here but I would not give them anything lower than 2.15. But the biggest value for me this weekend is Wimbledon in League Two. It is a pleasure to see odds dropped 5.80 - 4.56 since I took it. As far as Premiership is concerned I have just read nice reviews on Eurosport site. It would be good if at least one of my EPL underdogs (Norwich & Sunderland) have managed to win: "Six of the last seven meetings between West Brom and Norwich in all competitions have ended as away wins, including the last four in a row. Norwich are unbeaten in their last 10 league games. They last went on a longer run within a single top-flight season in March 1987 (15 games)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikesth Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Excellent video, your English is fine so well done + keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Thanks for feedback mikesth! Next picks (26.12): HARTLEPOOL AWAY 4.40 SHEFFIELD W AWAY 4.97 PETERBROUGH AWAY 4.85 SOUTHAMPTON AWAY 4.48 ST. MIRREN AWAY 4.50 WYCOMBE AWAY 4.33 WALSALL AWAY 7.63 SCUNTHORPE AWAY 6.24 TELFORD AWAY 7.50 Last weekend (+43 units) GETAFE 6.47 TROYES 9.32 BURNLEY 3.25 PETERBOROUGH 3.78 NORWICH 4.21 SUNDERLAND 3.94 BARNSLEY 5.57 EVIAN 5.31 SOCHAUX 7.65 Postponed games: LEYTON ORIENT 4.03 WIMBLEDON 5.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notoriouspunter Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy great stuff. how big.is.the part of watching games? for me biggest info is coming from watching games.. seeing teams who have motivation but are unlucky is probably a big edge.vs the bookie and the field.. touhg i never thought.playing these big odd outsiders cause of the probable big variance. I wouldnt bet myself on teams i did not watch playing oh and how important is for you the other team? would it make sense to select against teams that are too lucky..? lucky team vs unlucky team.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Hi there, interesting questions! As I said in the video, watching games is good but having stats and knowing how to use them properly is second best thing. I am inclined to say that it is best when both of these is coupled. Because if you watch the games and do not use any "numbers" you might get too biased, too subjective and bring too much importance to recent results. On the other if you use stats but do not follow teams and TV games, you will have one model for games. But every league differs, has own dynamics and characteristics. Therefore I believe sports-betting (or my particular strategy) must be mix of art of science. Of course the other team is important. Equaly important. Taking unlucky teams is only one side of the coin. The other is taking "TOO LUCKY" teams. Sometimes very weak teams happen to be in top part of the table, not only in early part of the season! So best three variations are: UNLUCKY TEAM VS AVERAGE TEAM (then we take unlucky) TOO LUCKY VS AVERAGE TEAM (then we take average) UNLUCKY TEAM VS TOO LUCKY TEAM (then we take unlucky, and it is best scenario obviously) Or we could name them over/under PRICED or over/under VALUED instead of "LUCKY" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy HARTLEPOOL AWAY 4.40 SHEFFIELD W AWAY 4.97 PETERBROUGH AWAY 4.85 SOUTHAMPTON AWAY 4.48 ST. MIRREN AWAY 4.50 WYCOMBE AWAY 4.33 WALSALL AWAY 7.63 SCUNTHORPE AWAY 6.24 TELFORD AWAY 7.50 Yay! :clap +85 units today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bustmaster Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy 70,7% ROI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy SOUTHAMPTON 5.25 BRISTOL R 5.70 NORWICH 6.81 SHEFFIELD W 3.19 SCUNTHORPE 4.50 BARNET 4.50 HARTLEPOOL 10.60 QPR 4.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notoriouspunter Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy please delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notoriouspunter Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I really like your ideas cause it works against public opinion thus ending up many times on the value side.. I think a big factor with lucky unlucky teams is how they react when not getting results they deserved Some drop in confidence and their style/form is affected. Some just carry on. Identifying them them might gibe some percentage to the hitrate. I hope its ok for you when I drop some thoughts in... Im sure that this is not about luck/unlucky but about how teams(and specially coaches) cope with it. I know it doesnt look that fancy but have you thought about backing these teams on not to loose? ---- edit: and please just explain how you took hartlepool(congrats):-) just odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I am glad you like my ideas NP! Appreciate your thoughts. "I know it doesnt look that fancy but have you thought about backing these teams on not to loose?" I guess, it would still be profitable but with much lower yield. I am tweaking my asian handicap method now. As far as H'pool is concerned - there's been no magic I am afraid - I just gave them ~12% to win and was lucky enough to hit this one, this time. I was especially cheering for Southampton this week - they seemed so secure at 1-3 away win in 70 minute! Anyway, lets see the results: SOUTHAMPTON 5.25 BRISTOL R 5.70 NORWICH 6.81 SHEFFIELD W 3.19 SCUNTHORPE 4.50 BARNET 4.50 QPR 4.30 HARTLEPOOL 10.60 Profits: Picks 96 Correct Picks 30.2% Average Odds 5.32 Stakes Total 960 Total Return 1555.1 Profit +595.1 Yield (ROI) +62% This week: AFC Wimbledon 5.00 Osasuna 6.00 Southampton 5.18 Birmingham 3.71 Wigan 7.00 Granada 3.50 La Coruna 3.30 Carlisle 4.09 Bristol City 5.50 Good luck and enjoy the celebrations today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy AFC Wimbledon 5.00 Southampton 5.18 Birmingham 3.71 Wigan 7.00 Carlisle 4.09 Bristol City 5.50 Picks: 102 Correct Picks: 29.4% Average Odds: 5.30 Profit +585.1 Yield (ROI) +57.4% This week: Osasuna 6.00 Granada 3.50 La Coruna 3.30 Wimbledon 4.58 Plymouth 5.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy You can't put picks on your yield nor shown on here you have 40 picks I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Picks: 102 Correct Picks: 29.4% zrochu, I like your picks, but as anaconda69 says, you haven't put 102 picks on this thread - counting the results in green and red, I make it 32. Unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v3rn0n Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I make it: Picks: 32 Correct Picks: 8 (25% strike rate) Profit +£143.40 Yield (ROI) +44.81% Which is a great start..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes, I apologize guys! Of course there have not been 102 picks! And thanks Vernon for quick sum-up, I will carry on with this stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes' date=' I apologize guys! Of course there have not been 102 picks! And thanks Vernon for quick sum-up, I will carry on with this stats.[/quote'] Thanks zbrochu - great start at 44%+ yield :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Your english is great zbrochu, as a beginner I learned a lot from the vid :-) I will try some of your suggestions, keep it up :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jd_fortune Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy You can definitely make some money in soccer betting. Probably not by backing but by laying you can. Say you lay 50 to 1 shots and you do enough research on stats that you hardly ever lose. You're bringing in money every time you bet but you don't ever give it back because the unlikely event never, or very rarely, actually occurs. I've been doing that for a while. Aside from a few hits, on bets I really shouldn't have made but didn't know the teams that well at the time, I just never pay out. My only problem was I got cocky because I was winning all the time and I raised the lay bet to $50 once on a Tottenham game. Bad idea. Cost me $500. So happened I made a couple other bad bets and had 3 or 4 hits against me in one day. Set me back from about $2100 to about $1200. Now I'm back up to about $1800. I initially only put $800 in so I'm still doubled up even after that cluster of hits in one day. I got back to $1800 by flat lay betting $10 per game. I didn't want to risk another big hit. I'm a lot more particular about what games I will bet on now too. I'll usually wait until a game goes to HT with no goals before I will lay AUQ. Very few teams can make 4 goals in one half. That's like making 8 goals in a whole game. How many teams can do that? I just watch out for any teams that are actually capable of doing that, like Man U or Arsenal in the EPL, and now Tottenham after they did exactly that and cost me the $50 lay bet. You get to know which teams are dangerous and just avoid them. Isn't too likely a game between two low level teams will have either of them scoring 4 goals in the 2nd half, no matter what the prices are that are available on BF. Of course, you have to have nerves of steel to risk something like $500 to make $10, but it seems to be paying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes, good points jd_fortune, however we would need to consult with betfair expert. Anyway, lets see results from the weekend: Osasuna 6.00 Granada 3.50 La Coruna 3.30 Wimbledon 4.58 Plymouth 5.15 Picks: 37 Correct Picks: 10 (27% strike rate) Profit +£172.20 Yield (ROI) +46.5% Next picks: on Friday or Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Hi guys, here we go: BRISTOL R 5.75 LEVANTE 4.30 SEVILLA 3.82 VALLADOID 4.27 WIGAN 4.00 SHEFFIELD W 6.20 PETERBROUGH 4.75 HARTLEPOOL 4.75 TROYES 4.40 NANCY 4.45 LA CORUNA 4.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St.dom Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Morning bud, are you sure your pick is Valladoid and not Mallorca BRISTOL R 5.75 LEVANTE 4.30 SEVILLA 3.82 VALLADOID 4.27 WIGAN 4.00 SHEFFIELD W 6.20 PETERBROUGH 4.75 HARTLEPOOL 4.75 TROYES 4.40 NANCY 4.45 LA CORUNA 4.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy It is Mallorca 4.27 , sorry for mistake :) BRISTOL R 5.75 LEVANTE 4.30 SEVILLA 3.82 MALLORCA 4.27 WIGAN 4.00 SHEFFIELD W 6.20 PETERBROUGH 4.75 HARTLEPOOL 4.75 TROYES 4.40 NANCY 4.45 LA CORUNA 4.34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy SHEFFIELD W 6.20 BRISTOL R 5.75 LEVANTE 4.30 SEVILLA 3.82 MALLORCA 4.27 WIGAN 4.00 PETERBROUGH 4.75 HARTLEPOOL 4.75 TROYES 4.40 NANCY 4.45 LA CORUNA 4.34 Picks: 48 Correct Picks: 12 (25% strike rate) Profit +£181.70 Yield (ROI) +37.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinkisntwell Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Key of my method is that I do keep track of real form of the team. Sometimes one team play a decent game but lose the game in some mysterious unlucky accident. Bookmakers are not sophisticated enough when they make lines for this hundreds of bets every week. They take rather widely available stats and set up odds. Bookmakers don't set up odds, the public does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts