theonepunter Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (37 bets + 2.5% yield) Fixture: Stake: Odds: York vs Exeter £5.28 2.28 (FT: 1:2) Alfreton vs Dartford £5.28 2.39 (FT: 3:2) Profit: +£2.06 Overall: Bank: £107.75 Profit: +£7.75 Yield: 3.3% As their were only 2 fixtures as selections today it meant that if one didn't win than profits were going to be quite low for the system. The next selections will include much more selections though as it will include matches from the PL, championship and league 1 as well as league 2 and the conference that were included today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) This is selections for the Tuesday mid-week and NOT the weekend selections: Fixture: Stake: Odds: Morecambe vs Dagenham & Red. £5.39 2.38 I was waiting for the odds to come up on pinnacle as I want to be consistent in what site I use to collect odds but I would of hoped they would of done it by now but they haven't so I used Bet365. I doubt pinnacle would of given odds more than 2.4 on this is the selection as the odds range was about 2.3-2.38 for this match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 why Morecambe ? Morecambe vs Dagenham & Red 1. The odds for this game in pinnacle is 2.50 2 . I'm confused!! goal priority of Morecambe's 6 home matchs and Dagenham's 6 away matchs is (6) and it isn't in your range (-2 to +2). so why you select that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) Morecambe: 0-0 , 1-1 , 3-1 , 4-1 , 0-0 , 1-1 --->5 Dagenham & Red : 0-2 , 3-1 , 0-1 , 2-1 , 3-2 , 2-3 -->0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: why Morecambe ? 1. The odds for this game in pinnacle is 2.50 2 . I'm confused!! goal priority of Morecambe's 6 home matchs and Dagenham's 6 away matchs is not in your range. so why you select that? There is different ways to obtain the ratings for the two teams playing each other. It depends on what you count as the last number of fixtures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) I can't edit my previous post (because my total post is less than 20 post!!!). so correct it: Morecambe: 0-0 , 1-1 , 3-1 , 4-1 , 0-0 , 1-0 --->6 **** Dagenham & Red : 0-2 , 3-1 , 0-1 , 2-1 , 3-2 , 2-3 -->0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) For this system I am doing it the last 6 games as one set of ratings and then the last 6 home and away games as another set of games' date=' which both seem to be working at the moment. If the games crossover into both set of ratings than only one bet will still be placed as opposed to two. I hope that has cleared up any confusion.[/quote'] But here you say that only matchs that cover 2 ways, will be select. so what is your final method? The last 6 match (home and away together for team A & B ) or last 6 match that Team A played in home and Team B played in away? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (12 bets + 44% yield) But here you say that only matchs that cover 2 ways' date=' will be select. so what is your final method? The last 6 match (home and away together for team A & B ) or last 6 match that Team A played in home and Team B played in away?[/quote'] They only have to cover 1 method to be selected and both methods will be continued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) So in your system, if one of these ways will be ok, we should select the match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 7, 2013 Author Share Posted January 7, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) So in your system' date=' if one of these ways will be ok, we should select the match?[/quote'] Thats correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 8, 2013 Author Share Posted January 8, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (39 bets + 3.3% yield) Fixture: Stake: Odds: Morecambe vs Dagenham & Red. £5.39 2.38 (FT: 2:1) Profit: +£7.44 Overall: Bank: £115.19 Profit: £15.19 Yield: 6.4% The price for Morecambe in this game did drop on pinnacle from 2.5 - 2.38 which is quite a big drop and therefore would of been with in my odds limit. I think the reason for the price moving down so much is because their was free entry to the ground and therefore and assumption of given more of a home advantage due to the bigger crowd. Selections for the weekends will be not be on as early as they usually will be due to having to wait for the 1x2 odds to be released for League 2 and the conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (40 bets + 6.4% yield) Selections for the weekend Fixture: Stake: Odds: Sunderland vs West Ham £5.76 2.33 M'boro vs Watford £5.76 2.06 Colchester vs Scunthorpe £5.76 2.16 Leyton Orient vs Crewe £5.76 2.37 Preston vs Walsall* £5.76 2.15 Burton vs Torquay £5.76 2.18 Gillingham vs Port Vale £5.76 2.05 Hereford vs Alfreton £5.76 2.05 Woking vs Ebbsfleet* £5.76 2.06 *These game take place on sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (40 bets + 6.4% yield) Do you change system, or add other leagues only? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks (40 bets + 6.4% yield) Fixture: Stake: Odds: Sunderland vs West Ham £5.76 2.33 M'boro vs Watford £5.76 2.06 Colchester vs Scunthorpe £5.76 2.16 Leyton Orient vs Crewe £5.76 2.37 Preston vs Walsall* £5.76 2.15 Burton vs Torquay £5.76 2.18 Gillingham vs Port Vale £5.76 2.05 Hereford vs Alfreton £5.76 2.05 Woking vs Ebbsfleet* £5.76 2.06 Profit: -£14.00 Overall: Bank: £101.19 Profit: £1.19 What this set of games have helped me to do is to set a lower odds limit as the games below 2.10 really lost money. Odds of 2.05-2.08 wouldn't normally be in the selections but I had to see how they did and contemplate if they could ever be picked. Anyway with a lower odds limit it still would of been a loss and this is really due to the lack of home wins through out the leagues, in league 1 on saturday there was only 1 home win and in the conference only 1 home win on the saturday. For the next selections I will include more leagues from Europe that have been doing well under this system. These are Portugal, Spain and Scotland . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks Fixture: Stake: Odds: West Ham vs QPR £5 2.11 Wigan vs Sunderland £5 2.11 Derby vs N'Forest £5 2.24 York vs Aldershot £5 2.15 Raith vs Hamilton £5 2.32 (Scotland) Granada vs Rayo'V £5 2.31 (Spain) Almeria vs Barca B £5 2.19 (Spain) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senator69 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks You don't should change the system or leagues. only must be increase stake on the previous system. I don't see your tips from tonight... sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks Fixture: Stake: Odds: West Ham vs QPR £5 2.11 Wigan vs Sunderland £5 2.11 Derby vs N'Forest £5 2.24 York vs Aldershot £5 2.15 Raith vs Hamilton £5 2.32 (Scotland) Granada vs Rayo'V £5 2.31 (Spain) Almeria vs Barca B £5 2.19 (Spain) Profit: -£23.45 Overall: Bank: £77.74 Profit: £22.26 That was just a terrible weekend. I will go back to the original 3 league (PL, CH + L1) however I still want to keep Spain as that league stayed profitable this week. Next selections will be up soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonepunter Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Value Home Picks Fixture: Stake: Odds: Charlton vs Shef Wed £3.89 2.34 Carlisle vs Scunthorpe £3.89 2.19 I want to monitor to Spanish games instead of putting them on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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