Jump racing ~ Thursday 13th December

[NeilM]

15:20 Taunton An interesting little Class 3 handicap, featuring a couple of horses that could be considered for the notebook. Its over 16.5 furlongs/2 miles-and-a-bit and apparently the going is soft. Depending on how cold the ground is it could be slightly firmer. Marshal Zhukov did OK at Ascot LTO when finishing third. He opened his chasing account the time before at Chepstow when tongue tied with similar ground. Caroline Keevil won this last year so will no doubt be keen to grab the renewal. HIs earlier efforts- including a third to Harry the Viking- can be forgiven. Lightly raced and looks to be improving- there are no ground concerns but will he adapt to the shorter distance given that he has won and done OK over longer? One to consider for a place I suspect. Elenika has plenty of form in France and scored after some effort for Paul Nicholls and Daryl Jacob the time before last at Huntingdon but was entered in a Newbury handicap LTO and came in fourth. However, a tongue tie is fitted today which may have some impact and with Nicholls in the news viewers at home could fancy a flutter on name recognition. A good possibility for a place. Tatispout for Charlie Longsden and Noel Fehily won at Southwell over 16 furlongs time before last but got hammered in a Class 3 at Newbury by Ulck du Lin and appears an erratic performer to say the least. Wasn't in the mix LTO and refused to race twice last year. Wester Ross is in blinkers rather than a visor but has much to prove: will be a shock if it gets a place. Likewise The Chazer although he can't be ruled out entirely: opened his chasing account back in May and wasn't wholly disgraced in two starts since but may prefer heavier ground. With Tom Scudamore riding, he may be thereabouts or just behind. However, CICERON gets the vote- Venetia Williams and Aiden Coleman are a great combination at the smaller tracks and both have an appealing strike rate at Taunton this season. He did well at Leicester last time out and would have got very close to Act of Kalanisi if he'd not been hampered. With the best record over hurdles and previous perfomances in listed races suggesting he has some class, he can do OK chasing. We can take him to open his account over fences here. Suggestion 1pt win Ciceron (9/4 365, Paddy's both BOG). Marshal Zhukov and Elenika for a place.

[ExpectTheUnexpected]

Re: Jump racing ~ Thursday 13th December 1.50 Taunton seems an interesting race today, namely the prospects of Changing Times An in-form yard, and crucially, an in-form horse. An 11 length third in October behind Rival d'Estruval's been franked by the latter's convincing win lto, and the next in the betting in the ep market, Bally Legend receives only 3lbs despite being 14l behind Changing Times in the same race at level weights. I'm not entirely convinced by Carrigmorna King's ability to travel under the top weight and deliver in a field of relative quality. Radjani Express finished a length behind Elenika over a shorter trip, who in my opinion has a tendency to fade. As such, i'd have to question RE's ability over a sharp,albeit slightly longer, trip like today. This leaves two other contenders, Theatrical Star and Jump City. Theatrical Star lto struck me as more of a stayer than a quick chaser, and i'm counting on this playing into the selection's hands. That said, if allowed a lead, it won't tire too quickly. As such, i'd credit it my next best. Jump City struggled in a higher quality contest over a shorter trip, and again, i'm not convinced extending it is going to be beneficial. Having said as much, it has won against equal opposition and as such, merits respect. Wouldn't be surprised to see it come home. Changing Times available at best price 7/2 Betfred, 365, Skybet, around 3/1 elsewhere. Edit reason - Typo