MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections

[MrSportstips]

Hi All, I started a blog on here that didn't go to well :wall but i have made big improvements to it and will now give you a run down of what i'm doing. If its successful i don't yet know as its hard to back date test it. The rating system is run over 15 leagues (Austria,Blue square,Championship,Dutch,Premier League,France 1,Germany 1 & 2,Italy 1,League 1 & 2, Mexico 1, Scottish Prem , Spain 1, Turkey) Let me go into more detail Here is ratings for Germany 1 :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157513826/in/photostream as you can see the table shows the avg number of Shots S.O.T Poss Corners and S.R x 2 Shots = Shots at Goal , S.O.T = Shots at Goal , Poss = Possession Corners= Corners lol and S.R = Strike Rate Strike rate is the number of goals scored from the number of shots on target taken The photo is of the overall avg stats here are the home and away :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157517336/in/photostream Home http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157485091/in/photostream Away on the left side is the attacking rating on the right is the defensive rating (this updates when i add in all the week/midweeks results and stats) Now we will take Hamburg Vs Bayern We would add up Hamburg's attack ratings and Bayern defensive rating to get a rating for Hamburg for this match then the same for Bayern. When we have added up the ratings for both team we then take away the home rating from the away rating like in this photo:- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157487149/in/photostream Now after i have done this it will give me a rating for this game - 56.99 which means the away team Bayern are 56.99 pts better then Hamburg for a home win i like the rating to be 40 +(green) and away around -45 (green) between 39.99 and - 44.99 ( Yellow) is given a draw prediction/ No Bet have are some results since start of October :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157489315/in/photostream and http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157612768/in/photostream as you can see the home wins are doing fine but the away wins are not also he is an example of some of my work each one of Shots,SOT,Corners poss and strike rate has one of these :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157499207/in/photostream also http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8157533562/in/photostream All of the above you have seen each league has one if you have any questions or you have done something like this or you wanna know anymore then plz ask away all prices are from Bet365 some profit on home wins would/could of been more but i find it easier for system results if i just use one bookies odds I will post up all green selections wish me luck :)

[Datapunter]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Good luck indeed. The totals for a team are based on how many past matches ?

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Hi Datapunter, Its done on all matches that have been played this season in all the leagues so far.

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Here are the ratings for tonight games top is overall rating (H&A) the bottom one is home rating Vs away rating :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8158483182/in/photostream so with the overall rating there is no clear bet yet with the other rating system it has selected 2 home wins now i have not used the H against A rating as i have only just added that. But i will be testing this to. I will use the same rules staking wise as i did on my last blog 500 pts 10pts per bet level stakes. I will use 500pts per section so 500pts for Overall Rating home wins and 500pts for away wins , 500pts for H vs A rating (home wins) 500 pts for H vs A rating Away win , I will also add in an over 1.5 goals and total corners and corner match bet. So in all 9 different markets i will be playing mainly to see which work and which don't if anything is unclear please ask away

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections home vs away match rating selections (home wins) Start 500 pts 10pts per selection 1) West Brom (194.02) Vs Southampton (137.76) +56.26 Selection West Brom to win @ 1.83 for 10pts 2) Kaiserslautern (165.36) Vs Erzgebirge Aue (120.05) +45.31 Selection Kaiserslautern to win @ 1.53 for 10 pts all prices are with bet365 for this blog as off 5 mins ago so a bigger price maybe around

[Chris 10b]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Very interesting Mr Sportstips and I hope it all goes well for you. I like to look at shots and corners as a pointer for games but can you tell me where you get your stats for possession and any stats for shots corners for the lower leagues. Good luck with this.

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over 1.5 goals Start 500pts 10pts per Selection 1) Getafe (1.85 goals) Vs Betis (1.53 goals) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.35 for 10 pts This is how i got to to the figure for goals right i take the avg shots of each team Getafe home stats and Betis away stats so here goes :- Getafe Home (12.20 shots, 5.6 S.O.T, Strike rate 0.35) Avg attacking stats Betis Away (8 Shots , 3.8 S.O.T, Strike rate 0.40) Avg attacking stats Getafe Home (12 shots , 5.5 S.O.T , Strike Rate 0.27) Avg defensive stats Betis Away (14.8 shots , 6 S.O.T , Strike Rate 0.29) Avg defensive stats Now i add up Getafe attacking stats and Betis defensive stats so :- 12.20 + 14.8 Shots = 27 , 5.6 + 6 S.O.T = 11.60 , 0.35 +0.29 Strike Rate = 0.64 now / by 2 so now we have Shots 13.5, S.O.T 5.8 , Strike rate 0.32 so for the match i predict Getafe will have around 13 to 14 shots around 5 to 6 on target so i multiply the 5.8 (shots on Target ) by 0.32 (strike rate) = 1.85 i do the same for betis which gave me 1.53 now i understand you cant get 1.85 goals or 1.53 goals lol but to me it tells me going on past matches they should at least score 1 each again any question plz ask away

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Hi Chris 10b, i have to pop out for 30 mins or so but as soon as i get back i will answer your question please bear with me thanks

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections i get alot of my stats from http://www.football-data.co.uk for lower league possession stats i use bbc sport website for other league i use many many websites some of the better one are http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer and http://www.espn.co.uk/ i look high and low for all stats lol even use my i phone for some i hope some of the sites help.

[Datapunter]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections So you just add up all the numbers regardless of the strength of the opponant ?

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections

So you just add up all the numbers regardless of the strength of the opponant ?

Hi Datapunter, yes thats what i do as its to hard to tell how strong each opponent is for example Man United Vs Wigan now do United have there first team out if not how do you rate how strong they were ? do you go on rep ? it would be to hard and take so much time to workout (not that i have not look into it lol) . This is the team that started against Wigan :- 13 A. Lindegaard 5 R. Ferdinand 15 N. Vidić 28 A. Büttner 2 Rafael 16 M. Carrick 11 R. Giggs 22 P. Scholes 17 Nani 19 D. Welbeck 14 J. Hernández Now that is a strong team but how do you rate how strong ? it brought up so many more questions then i had answers for. But if it can be done and someone out there can help and is willing to share with me that would be great :).

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections home vs away match rating Results (home wins) Start 500 pts 10pts per selection 1) West Brom (194.02) Vs Southampton (137.76) +56.26 Selection West Brom to win @ 1.83 for 10pts (WON) +8.30pts Score 2-0 2) Kaiserslautern (165.36) Vs Erzgebirge Aue (120.05) +45.31 Selection Kaiserslautern to win @ 1.53 for 10 pts (WON) + 5.30pts Score 4-1 Bank :- 500pts Daily P/L + 13.60 Strike Rate 2/2 ROI 13.60% Yield 68% New Bank 513.60pts Overall Profit 13.60pts

[Datapunter]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Right, so you know you got a problem there, but as you don't know how to solve it you.... simply ignore it :unsure I do hope you realise that until you find some way of dealing with that aspect the excercise is pretty much pointless as any result you get is down to randomness. Specifically the randomness of the playing schedule and not the result of your rating. I'll elaborate if you want.

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over 1.5 goals Start 500pts 10pts per Results 1) Getafe (1.85 goals) Vs Betis (1.53 goals) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.35 for 10 pts WON + 3.50 Score 2-3 Bank :- 500pts Daily P/L + 3.50 Strike Rate 1/1 ROI 3.50% Yield 35% New Bank 503.50pts Overall Profit 3.50pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections

Right, so you know you got a problem there, but as you don't know how to solve it you.... simply ignore it :unsure I do hope you realise that until you find some way of dealing with that aspect the excercise is pretty much pointless as any result you get is down to randomness. Specifically the randomness of the playing schedule and not the result of your rating. I'll elaborate if you want.

I'm not here to fight you have every right to have your say on it. I'm not a know it all and I'm always open to new ideas if you would like to share some tips with me please do

[Datapunter]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Not looking for a fight either but knowing you got a problem and just ignoring it is a bit strange. Using the Spanisch top league as example. Pretty well known the league is dominated by Barcelona and Real Madrid with Valencia a decent third. There's also a team called Getafe, been in the Primera Division since 2004/2005 so it's now their 7th season in the top leage and in those seasons they have been good enough not to relegate back but not good enough to get into the top 5. So on that basis i conclude it's an 'average' team, within the context of the Primera Division. Let's make an assesment of Getafe's next match in this situation: Round 1 : Getafe vs X Round 2 : Getafe vs Barcelona Round 3 : Getafe vs X Round 4 : Getafe vs Valencia Round 5 : Getafe vs X Round 6 : Getafe vs Real Madrid Round 7 : Getafe vs X Considering they have played the top 3 teams there probably won't be much stats to add up indicating a 'weak' team. Now how about this situation with a different playing schedule, equally possible as the schedule is a lottery. Round 1 : Getafe vs X Round 2 : Getafe vs Espanyol Round 3 : Getafe vs X Round 4 : Getafe vs Granada Round 5 : Getafe vs X Round 6 : Getafe vs Osasuna Round 7 : Getafe vs X Considering they have played the 3 teams currently bottom of the league they must have put up a decent performance, plenty of stats to add up indicating a 'strong' team. The problem is that it's exactly the same 'average' team showing up as 'weak' or 'strong' simply because of a different playing order of opponants. Randomness. Unless this is somehow adressed there can be no consistency from league to league or season to season. Results are dependend on the playing schediule, not team strengths. One possible way of dealing with this is to use the bookmaker's odds as a measure of relative strength. In the given example odds against the top teams will have been pretty high so performance against those teams can be 'balanced' against that. 10 shots on goal are worth more against Barcelona than against Osasuna. It's certainly not ideal and in itself it won't generate any spectacular results but it's a start.

its to hard to tell how strong each opponent is

I agree

it would be to hard

well, it is the challenge we all face

take so much time to workout

this is the easy part, let the computer do the work for you. Ok, easier said than done but if you don't have the DB and programming skills yourself team up with someone who has. It really is the only way to go, at some point, and you're pretty close to it, you'll hit the limits of what you can do with excel.

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Hi Datapunter, Thanks for your help and detailed answer this is the reason i wanna run it on a forum so i can get peoples input so if anyone else out there who has anything else to add please get in touch. I wanna run the system as it is for the time being not because I'm a know it all lol but just to see how it performs. Its early days and of course i will be looking to add to it as i go along.

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections There is no Match result selections today as none of them where +40 for Home or -45 for away here the ratings for Overall and H vs A http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8161235898/in/photostream - Overall http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8161207163/in/photostream - H Vs A only one that came close was Grimsby Away at Hyde I will post up some over 1.5 goal bets soon

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over 1.5 goals Start 500pts 10pts per Selection 2) Watford (1.57) vs Millwall (1.64) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.225 for 10pts 3) Burnley (1.99) Vs Leeds (1.56) Back over 1.5 @ 1.20 for 10 pts 4) Port Vale (2.28) vs Rochdale (1.50) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 for 10pts 5) Morecombe (1.57) Vs Accrington (1.64) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.25 for 10 pts 6) Stockport (1.68) Vs Barrow (1.56) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 for 10pts 7) Hereford (1.62) Vs Luton (1.62) Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.24 for 10 pts all odds are with bet365 for this blog odds maybe higher else where

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Corner Betting Start 500pts 10pts per selection 1) Burnley Vs Leeds Back over 11.5 corners @ 2.10 for 10pts 2) Sheff Wed Vs Blackpool Back over 11.5 corners @ 1.90 for 10pts 3) Coventry Vs Crawley Back over 11.5 corners @ 2.00 for 10 pts all odds are with bet365 for this blog odds maybe higher else where

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over 1.5 goals Start 500pts 10pts per Results 2) Watford (1.57) vs Millwall (1.64) 0-0 Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.225 for 10pts Lost 3) Burnley (1.99) Vs Leeds (1.56) 1-0 Lost Back over 1.5 @ 1.20 for 10 pts 4) Port Vale (2.28) vs Rochdale (1.50) 2-2 Won Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 for 10pts 5) Morecombe (1.57) Vs Accrington (1.64)0-0 Lost Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.25 for 10 pts 6) Stockport (1.68) Vs Barrow (1.56) 3-1Won Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 for 10pts 7) Hereford (1.62) Vs Luton (1.62) 1-0 Lost Back over 1.5 goals @ 1.24 for 10 pts Bank :- 503.50pts Daily P/L -35.4pts Strike Rate 3/7 (42%) ROI -31.90% Yield -45.57% New Bank 468.10pts Overall Profit/Loss -31.90pts No more over 1.5 goals blog will be changed to Over/Under 2.5 goals

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Corner Betting Start 500pts 10pts per Results 1) Burnley Vs Leeds 10 corners (Lost) Back over 11.5 corners @ 2.10 for 10pts 2) Sheff Wed Vs Blackpool 7 Corners (Lost) Back over 11.5 corners @ 1.90 for 10pts 3) Coventry Vs Crawley 8 Corners (Lost) Back over 11.5 corners @ 2.00 for 10 pts Bank :- 500 pts Daily P/L -30 Strike Rate 0/3 (0%) ROI -30% Yield -1% New Bank 470.00pts Overall Profit/Loss -30.00pts This will remain but with new Rating system plus i forgot to add Over/Under 2.5 now has a new rating System

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections In this photo is the new rating system for corners and over/under 2.5 goals:- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/ Green = Overs Yellow = No Bet Red = Unders for corners its over 11.5 or under 11.5 a rating of 120 or above is for Over 11.5 corners as overs between 119.99 and 100 is no bet and 99.99 and under is for under 11.5 For goals the rating is as followed 26 and above over 2.5 goals 25.99-18.01 No bet 18 or below is Under 2.5

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over/Under 2.5 Start 500pts 10pts per selection:- 1) Alfreton Town Vs Newport Rating for match (120) Back over 2.5 goals at 1.72 for 10 pts 2) Koln Vs Duisburg Rating for Match (99) Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 for 10pts all odds are with >Bet365 for this blog odds maybe higher else where

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Corner Betting Start 500pts 10pts per Results (currently - 30pts overall) 4) Koln Vs Duisburg Corner rating (17.16) Back under 11 corners @ 1.53 for 10 pts 17.83 5) Sandhausen Vs Hertha Corner rating (17.83) Back under 11 corners @ 1.53 for 10 pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections home vs away match rating Results (home wins) Start 500 pts 10pts per selection (Currently +13.60pts) 3) Mainz (174.18) Vs Nurnberg (117.85) +56.33 Back Mainz to win @ 1.80 for 10pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections there was a mistake on the Betis game now they qualify for over 2.5 goals :- http://www.flickr.com/photos/85636332@N06/8169430249/in/photostream Over/Under 2.5 Start 500pts 10pts per selection:- 3) Betis Vs Granada Rating (124) Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 for 10pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Over/Under 2.5 Start 500pts 10pts per Results:- 1) Alfreton Town Vs Newport Rating for match (120) Back over 2.5 goals at 1.72 for 10 pts (Won) +7.20pts Score 4-3 2) Koln Vs Duisburg Rating for Match (99) Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 for 10pts (WON) +10pts Score 0-0 3) Betis Vs Granada Rating (124) Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 for 10pts (Won) + 9.50 Score 2-1 Bank :- 500pts Daily P/L :- +26.70 Strike Rate 3/3 (100%) ROI +26.70% Yield 89% New Bank 526.70pts Overall Profit/Loss +26.70pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections Corner Betting Start 500pts 10pts per Results 4) Koln Vs Duisburg Corner rating (17.16) Back under 11 corners @ 1.53 for 10 pts (Won) +5.30 5) Sandhausen Vs Hertha Corner rating (17.83) Back under 11 corners @ 1.53 for 10 pts (WON) +5.30 Bank :- 470 pts Daily P/L +10.60 Strike Rate 2/5 (40%) ROI -19.40% Yield -38% New Bank 480.60pts Overall Profit/Loss -19.40pts

[MrSportstips]

Re: MrSportsTips Rating System including how i come to my selections home vs away match rating Results (home wins) Start 500 pts 10pts Results 3) Mainz (174.18) Vs Nurnberg (117.85) +56.33 Back Mainz to win @ 1.80 for 10pts (WON) +8.00 Bank :- 513.60pts Daily P/L + 8.00 Strike Rate 3/3 ROI 21.60% Yield 72% New Bank 521.60pts Overall Profit +21.60pts