Kithanga Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hope we've got a maths genius out there who can help me out. I'm trying to calculate the range of profits I might make from a year of betting based on my average profit, average bets and average strike rate. I assuming it's got something to do with Standard Deviations? The reason is that I want to understand what the 'normal' level of deviation I can expect as I think it'll help my confidence if I can see how bad a 'bad year' might be within an overall profitable set of numbers. Hope that explains it. The numbers I would like modelling are 200 bets, 19% strike rate & 25% ROI. Hope someone can help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hope we've got a maths genius out there who can help me out. I'm trying to calculate the range of profits I might make from a year of betting based on my average profit, average bets and average strike rate. I assuming it's got something to do with Standard Deviations? The reason is that I want to understand what the 'normal' level of deviation I can expect as I think it'll help my confidence if I can see how bad a 'bad year' might be within an overall profitable set of numbers. Hope that explains it. The numbers I would like modelling are 200 bets, 19% strike rate & 25% ROI. Hope someone can help You could use something called a Monte Carlo simulation which is used in Business forecasting. My understanding is that it gives a range of results that could occur but I think it involves your own manual input as to what a good, bad, average year could be. You might be better off running an 'Archie' Score on your selections which would certainly give you the likelihood of how random your selections may or may not be and also provide u with a guide to the likelihood of future profitability. From that you could probably decide what parameters are reasonable when deciding on the upper and lower levels of your forecasting? Do you kno the average odds of your selections? EG 4/1 = 5.0 - BSP average would create the most accurate result imho. Can mail you Ar'chi'e info and a chart that'll calculate it for you if that's of any interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns I think its Binomial distribution which answers your question with the variables given. Bets = 200 SR = 19% ROI = 25% (assuming actual ROI not yield) Therefore profit @ 1pt stakes = bets *ROI = 200*0.25 = 50pts Therefore average winning odds = bets + profit /total winning bets(200*0.19%) = 250/38 = 6.58 ave odds If you were to bet in exactly the same way/circumstances as the previous season (very unlikely but you did asked) with similar results you would have a range between.......... Expected negative return chance of 0.01% or return of 125 = loss of 75pts Expected Positive return chance of 0.01% or return of 388 = profit of 188pts All being the similar to the previous year you would have a 12%-88% split negative to positive eg 12% chance of losing or 88% chance of profiting :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns The maths genius on here is called Slapdash but he's mainly in the systems section. Give him a nudge and ask him to have a look at this for you. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Thanks guys, I've pm'd Slapdash too. Yes please Saint, average odds were about 6.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Wilson Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Standard Deviation is just the square root of the variance which in turn just squares the differences from the mean, not sure what you'd use it for in the context you're implying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns I just want to understand what percentage chance I've got of getting certain returns so maybe the title is wrong. I'm not that good at maths. The sample is from class 1 and 2 races but only a few bets (200) and a small strike rate (19%) so I'm expecting that in any one year the variation of returns could be significant. I'm trying to understand how significant. Something along the lines of.... I've got a 50% likelihood of landing between +30 and +100 in any one year, etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns I just want to understand what percentage chance I've got of getting certain returns so maybe the title is wrong. I'm not that good at maths. The sample is from class 1 and 2 races but only a few bets (200) and a small strike rate (19%) so I'm expecting that in any one year the variation of returns could be significant. I'm trying to understand how significant. Something along the lines of.... I've got a 50% likelihood of landing between +30 and +100 in any one year' date=' etc[/quote'] post 3 tells you that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns post 3 tells you that Yes thanks, I got that. It's not that I don't believe it and not being ungrateful. Just curious if there's another way to view it as you seemed to indicate that the outcomes would be very unlikely as the average odds was unlikely to be the same in any following year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Yes thanks' date=' I got that. It's not that I don't believe it and not being ungrateful. Just curious if there's another way to view it as [b']you seemed to indicate that the outcomes would be very unlikely as the average odds was unlikely to be the same in any following year. Correct any prediction of the future is very unlikely to be the same as the previous year as you can only make an estimation,as it is impossible to exactly replicate 1 bet let alone 200. On only 200 bets you would expect a MoE (Margin of Error) of around 7%. worse case scenario given 7% MoE would be approx..... Total bets 200*1.07 = 214 Adjusted SR% = 38/214 = 18% Adjusted ROI = (50-(214-200))/214 = 17% Expected LLR = 29 Expected LWR = 3 It would still be possible to lose every bet (highly unlikely but still possible). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Thanks guys, I've pm'd Slapdash too. Yes please Saint, average odds were about 6.50 Sorry mate - stupidly busy - Archie score based on average exchange odds is just over 2.0 which to my understanding means there is only a 15% chance that the results are random. Based on the figures your expected winners would be 30.77 and you achieved 38 so that augers well too. There is a way to predict future results too but that escapes me at the moment... http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html With regards to the win/ew disscussion we had the other week - although my ROI is smashed EW betting, I am once again considering it. Without opening the spreadsheet something like 3 of the last 16 bets have won with 10 being placed!!!! Another thing I am working on is having my full stake on the win and then laying it off at half the odds - which is effectively what I am doing backing EW - kind of - you'll get my drift. At the moment - over 400+ bets it beats Each Way hands down. The battle to keep a focussed mind through a long run of near misses is tough - I am starting to think it is not worth the decrease in overall profits for the easier ride of going EW or laying off! If fear of losing your bank grips or just losing money in general and staking goes ary or a bet that you like is ignored - it may win and that will compound the phychological damage further. This is making perfect sense to me - probably not anyone else though!!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Thanks guys, I've pm'd Slapdash too. Yes please Saint, average odds were about 6.50 With the given information, and assuming level stakes and that the odds don't vary much, Machine's calculation in post 3 looks right to me. (Well, except that 31 wins would actually make a slight profit, so the chance of a losing year is about 8.5%. But anyway, round about 10% chance of a losing year.) One thing that could make a difference is that if the odds varied significantly, then a binomial distribution wouldn't be as good a model. If you were making bets varying between evens and 50/1, say, but averaging 6.58, and if a lot of your profit came from the long odds bets, then that would increase the variance a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns Sorry mate - stupidly busy - Archie score based on average exchange odds is just over 2.0 which to my understanding means there is only a 15% chance that the results are random. Based on the figures your expected winners would be 30.77 and you achieved 38 so that augers well too. There is a way to predict future results too but that escapes me at the moment... http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html With regards to the win/ew disscussion we had the other week - although my ROI is smashed EW betting, I am once again considering it. Without opening the spreadsheet something like 3 of the last 16 bets have won with 10 being placed!!!! Another thing I am working on is having my full stake on the win and then laying it off at half the odds - which is effectively what I am doing backing EW - kind of - you'll get my drift. At the moment - over 400+ bets it beats Each Way hands down. The battle to keep a focussed mind through a long run of near misses is tough - I am starting to think it is not worth the decrease in overall profits for the easier ride of going EW or laying off! If fear of losing your bank grips or just losing money in general and staking goes ary or a bet that you like is ignored - it may win and that will compound the phychological damage further. This is making perfect sense to me - probably not anyone else though!!:lol I understand! I've looked over thousands of bets now and e/w just doesn't stack up. I've also checked treating it as a separate bank (1 point win or 1 point ew rather than 1/2 point ew). The win element is unchanged obviously but the place bets show a small profit. Interestingly it struck me that all I'd be doing is adding another betting bank to get frustrated about, with a higher chance of it returning frustrating results (small profit or actual loss). It's got to be win only. The staking level and the bank aren't a problem for me, the bigger problem is all the effort involved and the fact that you can go weeks (and a lot of work) before a decent run and big return that puts you back ahead and that can be draining emotionally. How I get over that I'm not sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Go Each-Way?! ;) The maths don't stack up I agree. Trouble is, if I'm 12 losers in and then can't bet effectively because of it that's arguably gonna be more harmful... If only winners came along on a constant basis!! Am gonna put a spreadsheet together that lays off at half odds, 40%, 30%, 20% and downwards to see if that goes anywhere! Would not have had a doubt all turf season but this last month has been ridiculous for hitting placed efforts.... As long as I am sorted by 2013!!! Chopping and changing is a sure fire way to the poor house! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kithanga Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns lol. Just be careful on the laying off as the amounts matched can be really low at the odds they quote. I know because I've had some partly matched in the past. Good luck with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Re: Standard deviation of returns lol. Just be careful on the laying off as the amounts matched can be really low at the odds they quote. I know because I've had some partly matched in the past. Good luck with it Generally, I get to watch the racing live so always check the amounts as soon as the race finishes - thanks. Do you think someone is trying to tell me something when my only bet of the day, I secure an average of 5.75 over Lucky Mark, he goes off around 2.5, trades at 1.05 for £1,000s and gets beat for 2nd?! F****** game this is at times!:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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