Standard deviation of returns

[Kithanga]

Hope we've got a maths genius out there who can help me out. I'm trying to calculate the range of profits I might make from a year of betting based on my average profit, average bets and average strike rate. I assuming it's got something to do with Standard Deviations? The reason is that I want to understand what the 'normal' level of deviation I can expect as I think it'll help my confidence if I can see how bad a 'bad year' might be within an overall profitable set of numbers. Hope that explains it. The numbers I would like modelling are 200 bets, 19% strike rate & 25% ROI. Hope someone can help

[The Saint]

Hope we've got a maths genius out there who can help me out. I'm trying to calculate the range of profits I might make from a year of betting based on my average profit, average bets and average strike rate. I assuming it's got something to do with Standard Deviations? The reason is that I want to understand what the 'normal' level of deviation I can expect as I think it'll help my confidence if I can see how bad a 'bad year' might be within an overall profitable set of numbers. Hope that explains it. The numbers I would like modelling are 200 bets, 19% strike rate & 25% ROI. Hope someone can help

You could use something called a Monte Carlo simulation which is used in Business forecasting. My understanding is that it gives a range of results that could occur but I think it involves your own manual input as to what a good, bad, average year could be. You might be better off running an 'Archie' Score on your selections which would certainly give you the likelihood of how random your selections may or may not be and also provide u with a guide to the likelihood of future profitability. From that you could probably decide what parameters are reasonable when deciding on the upper and lower levels of your forecasting? Do you kno the average odds of your selections? EG 4/1 = 5.0 - BSP average would create the most accurate result imho. Can mail you Ar'chi'e info and a chart that'll calculate it for you if that's of any interest.