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live in play possession stats


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Re: live in play possession stats It tells only a small part of the story. The only info I have is the anecdotal evidence of using possession stats in various models and none of them being particularly effective. Barcelona are an outlier IMO

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Re: live in play possession stats There are two types of possession statistics, Opta's and the PA's. Opta's is calculated by dividing the amount of passes team A has completed by the total passes in the match. For example if Barca were playing Real Madrid and there were a total of 1200 passes in the game, with Barca having 800 of them, the possession would be 66.6% Barca, 33.3% Real. The Press Association's method is using a stop clock and timing how long each team is holding onto the ball for. I had a link to Opta's live possession stats for Euro 2012 in the Summer, but don't have one for all of their other matches. The BBC use the PA's statistics. Can possession statistics be meaningless? Not entirely no, but just because a team is having much less possession that the opposition, does not mean that they're more likely to win. What I will is that if a team is having an 'unusual' amount of possession, relative to what they would normally have against a given team, then they are probably having the better of the play, or at least doing better than they normally would. For example you would often see teams have a 5-10 min spell of 70+% possession in a match that their total possession would be close to 50%. This generally means that they are piling on pressure. But an example of a scenario where the stat is pretty meaningless can be seen from this season. Stoke at home to Swansea. Stoke are known for their long balls and don't mind losing possession, Swansea are the opposite and like to take care of the ball. According to the PA, Swansea had 74% of the ball, Stoke having 26%. But Stoke won the game 2-0, and had 10 shots (5 on target) whereas Swansea only had 8 shots (0 on target). I think it was clear enough to see that Swansea's possession in this instance was not giving them an advantage.

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