Flat Racing 7th October

[BKI Punter]

12:55 Longchamp Mayson 1.5pt win - 9/2 (WH) Wizz Kid 1pt win - 10/1 (WH) Mayson now has his ideal conditions, if he gets away quickly we could see a repeat of the July Cup in which he was very impressive. Wizz Kid also has the ability to handle soft ground and deserves a win in a race like this having consistently run well in top company. 2:05 Longchamp Olympic Glory 2.5pt win - 5/2 (Lads) I don't think this is a vintage 2yo field and Olympic Glory has impressed when not having the run of the race. Shuffled back badly at Goodwood but still managed to get up late, beating subsequent winner Ghurair in the process. I'm not sure the French filly should be so short. The worry would have to be the ground but hopefully class will account for that. I don't see anything forcing him off the bridle and would be hopeful he can run his race regardless. 2:40 Longchamp Galikova 1pt EW - 11/2 (WH) She hasn't been seen to best effect this year but clearly still retains her ability. I think she is a great EW bet in this race. She'll enjoy the conditions and ran a good race in the Vermeille despite a little bad luck in running. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a horse like this regain form for the big race. 3:25 Longchamp Saonois 2pt win - 9/1 (WH) St Nic 0.5pt win - 12/1 (B365) Unlike some principles in the race, Saonois has been trained for this race in particular and has the profile of an Arc winner. When he got into the clear in the French Derby he ran on strongly and cleared away despite the bunch finish, he was then saved for the Prix Neil in which he travelled strongly and quickened smartly to win a slowly run race in quite dominant fashion. That should bring him on nicely for the Arc, and although conditions haven't obviously turned in his favour, he's still a major player. Camelot's been thrown in here after losing the Leger, he's good enough to win an average Arc which this is, but not had an ideal prep and 7/2 is not value. Orfevre has the draw of death and is hard to weigh up anyway. I have to wonder why, if Great Heavens was good enough to win an Arc, was she not entered along with Nathaniel? I think ehr form is overrated anyway and she was visually deceptive last time out. Not sure she'll have the pace. Sea Moon's best performance this year was against a bunch of slowboats. Shareta is admirable but seems like a good group one horse, not an Arc winner in waiting. St Nic always finds one or two too good but would be my main danger here, given he's been off since the Irish Champion and got close to two horses who'd be battling favouritism here. He has to be worth a saver at the price. Masterstroke struggled to beat Gatewood lto and I think that says it all. Meandre is just about a group one horse and was easily brushed aside by Orfevre lto. The rest don't seem good enough.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing 7th October 12:55 Longchamp: Cay Verde 1pt win 25/1 Bet365 Its been a long while since a two year old won this (1978), however Cay Verde won very well on the soft at Chantilly and that form has been franked with Bailey's Jubilee running well at Newmarket recently. And this looks likely to be about how well the runners handle the conditions. British trainers also have a good record in the race and with Martin Harley again in the plate Cay Verde could go very close if reproducing his last run in France. 3:25 Longchamp: Saonois 1pt win 9/1 William Hill & Bayrir 1pt win 25/1 Skybet Saonois has shown a fine turn of foot the last twice to win Group races at Longchamp and Chantilly. If the ground does not numb that he looks a very dangerous contender. Added to his ability to quicken in top class races Saonois is still relatively lightly raced and there is a chance of further improvement. Course and distance form is a bonus. At a much bigger price Bayrir could outrun his odds. He was beaten by Saonois in the Prix Niel however his trainer is reported as saying he will come on for that. His Highness the Aga Khan has a magnificent breeding operation and Bayrir certainly could improve having only seen the course six times so far.