WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 13, 2005 Share Posted February 13, 2005 I was given this idea after the thread on the Racing Post Ratings. The stats showed there were certain races that produced a significant loss when backed. Using simple logic, I decided to see how you would do from laying these selections rather than backing them. Below are the rules for qualification. 1) Race must be a handicap or a 3yo selling race. 2) Horse must be top rated using the Racing Post Ratings. If there are joint top rated horses then no selection is made. 3) Selection must be able to be layed at 11.0 or lower. Im going to start with rule 3 as it is but it may end up being changed depending on results. Ive been papertesting this since Sun 6th Feb(8 days) and these are the results so far. These are recorded as a fixed stake (to lose) of 5pts. All figures are shown as after commission(5%). Bets: 36 Successful Lays: 35 SR: 97.22% Stakes: 180 Profit: 44.46 Yield: 24.70% Average odds: 5.38 I will start to post up selections in this thread. Most selections will be posted before the start of racing with prices available at that time. If a horse qualifies on all rules except price, it may be added later if I notice the price becomes acceptable. All selections will be staked to lose 5pts as I feel laying this way gives you more control of your bank. Prices will be stated as per Betfair but profits will be stated post commission. Let's hope that last week wasn't just a fluke and the results carry on being kind. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted February 13, 2005 Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Excellent trial period mate, good luck :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackg99 Posted February 14, 2005 Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post WORKING do you consider the number of runners in your races or bet on all i am wary of small fields when laying especially over the jumps as you can be in trouble if you have a couple of fallers especially if they are among the more fancied runners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post I have been tracking the number of runners but as the results have only thrown up one winning horse so far obviously theres nothing that can be concluded yet. I am keeping my eye on things though to see if any patterns do emerge. Selections 14th Feb 3.30 Plu - Pardishar 3.3 4.00 Plu - Sweet Oona 2.9 4.50 Wol - Waterloo Corner 8.6 Possibles 3.50 Wol - Treasure Trail 4.20 Wol - Red Swan The possibles are the horses that fit the rules but are too large a price at present. They should be laid if they drop below 11.0. Each horse is laid to lose 5pts. Starting Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 3.30 Plu - Pardishar 3.3 - 2nd Profit: 2.07pts 4.00 Plu - Sweet Oona 2.9 - 2nd Profit: 2.50pts 4.50 Wol - Waterloo Corner 8.6 - UP Profit: 0.62pts Possibles 3.50 Wol - Treasure Trail - VOID - UP 4.20 Wol - Red Swan - VOID - UP Stakes: 15 pts Profit: 5.19pts New Bank: 105.19pts UPDATE Current Bank:105.19pts Profit:5.19pts Staked:15pts Yield:34.60% Bets:3 Wins:3 Strikerate:100% Av.Odds Laid:4.93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Selections 15th Feb 3.40 New - Lauderdale 3.55 3.50 Folk - See You Around 6.4 4.10 New - General Gossip 2.72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjo Posted February 15, 2005 Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Hello working, what was the price of the horse that let you down during your trial, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Welcome to the Punters Lounge Jonjo. The horse that let me down in the trial was Bill Brown in a 5 horse race @ 2.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 3.40 New - Lauderdale 3.55 - 1st Profit: -5.00pts :( 3.50 Folk - See You Around 6.4 - UP Profit: 0.88pts 4.10 New - General Gossip 2.72 - 1st Profit: -5.00pts :( Stakes: 15 pts Profit: -9.12pts New Bank: 96.07pts UPDATE Current Bank:96.07pts Profit:-3.93pts Staked:30pts Yield:-13.10% Bets:6 Wins:4 Strikerate:66.67% Av.Odds Laid:4.58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
achilles Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post I think thats wrong Lauderdale won at 9/4 & See You Around was unplaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post You're absolutly right Achilles. Now corrected, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Selections 16th Feb 2.00 Mus - Muckle Flugga 9.2 2.10 Lei - El Bandito 4.3 2.30 Mus - Themanfromcarlisle 3.85 3.10 Lei - Why The Big Paws 2.7 3.40 Lei - Heidi Iii - 4.0 4.20 LIn - Southern Bazaar 5.9 Possibles 4.00 Mus - Bodfari Signet 4.50 Lin - Tamora Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 2.00 Mus - Muckle Flugga 9.2 - UP Profit: 0.58pts 2.10 Lei - El Bandito 4.3 - 2nd Profit: 1.44pts 2.30 Mus - Themanfromcarlisle 3.85 - UP Profit: 1.66pts 3.10 Lei - Why The Big Paws 2.7 - UP Profit: 2.79pts 3.40 Lei - Heidi Iii - 4.0 - 3rd Profit: 1.58pts 4.20 LIn - Southern Bazaar 5.9 - UP Profit: 0.97pts Possibles 4.00 Mus - Bodfari Signet - VOID - UP 4.50 Lin - Tamora - VOID - UP Stakes: 30 pts Profit: 9.02pts New Bank: 105.09pts UPDATE Current Bank:105.09pts Profit:5.09pts Staked:60pts Yield:8.48% Bets:12 Wins:10 Strikerate:83.33% Av.Odds Laid:4.79 Av.Odds Successful Lay:5.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
achilles Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Good day, well done! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Thanks Achilles. A real test for the system today as it picks out a odds-on Pipe/Murphy combo that's also one of Ralphie's Quick System picks. :( Selections 17th Feb 2.35 San - New Maker 3.45 4.10 Tau - Caliban 8.4 5.10 Tau - Tanterari 1.65 Possibles 2.15 Sou - Royal Windmill 4.50 San - Starlight Express Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor Posted February 17, 2005 Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post WFTE, Intriguing idea, holding up well so far. Should be interesting to see what kind of price ranges this system works bets with in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 17, 2005 Author Share Posted February 17, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Maybe it was too much asking for one of Ralphie's picks to get beaten. Results 17th Feb 2.35 San - New Maker 3.45 - UP Profit: 1.94pts 4.10 Tau - Caliban 8.4 - UP Profit: 0.64pts 5.10 Tau - Tanterari 1.65 - 1st Profit: -5.00pts :( Possibles 2.15 Sou - Royal Windmill - VOID - UP 4.50 San - Starlight Express - VOID - UP Stakes: 15 pts Profit: -2.42pts New Bank: 102.67pts UPDATE Current Bank:102.67pts Profit:2.67pts Staked:75pts Yield:3.56% Bets:15 Wins:12 Strikerate:80% Av.Odds Laid:4.73 Av.Odds Successful Lay:5.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 18, 2005 Author Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post One quick one for now 1.25 Wol - Stellite 4.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 18, 2005 Author Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Right, now for today's selections in full. Selections 17th Feb 1.25 Wol - Stellite 4.2 2.15 Fak - Jayed 3.4 3.10 San - Supreme Developer 6.8 3.40 San - Phar Out Phavorite 4.3 4.15 San - Leith Hill Star 9.8 Possibles 3.50 Fak - Knightsbridge King Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstrike Posted February 18, 2005 Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Very interesting thread WFTE. Thanks for all your hardwork. Will view with much interest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 18, 2005 Author Share Posted February 18, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 17th Feb 1.25 Wol - Stellite 4.2 - UP Profit: 1.48pts 2.15 Fak - Jayed 3.4 - 1st Profit: -5.00pts :( 3.10 San - Supreme Developer 6.8 - 2nd Profit: 0.82pts 3.40 San - Phar Out Phavorite 4.3 - 2nd Profit: 1.44pts 4.15 San - Leith Hill Star 9.8 - UP Profit: 0.54pts Possibles 3.50 Fak - Knightsbridge King - VOID - UP Stakes: 25 pts Profit: -0.72pts New Bank: 101.95pts UPDATE Current Bank:101.95pts Profit:1.95pts Staked:100pts Yield:1.95% Bets:20 Wins:16 Strikerate:80% Av.Odds Laid:4.97 Av.Odds Successful Lay:5.51 Ive decided to try these with a second staking system as well. The second system will be staked for a fixed profit of 1pt.(0.95pts after commission) This is how it would look so far. Current Bank:107.88 Profit:7.88pts Liabilities:79.42pts Yield:9.92% As from now I will record both staking systems with the original 5pt loss as the first and the new 1pt profit second in blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 19, 2005 Author Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Selections 19th Feb 1.45 Wol - Asharon 2.74 2.20 Utt - Blushing Bull 4.2 2.25 Hay - Baron Windrush 4.3 2.35 Win - Almost Broke 3.85 3.10 Lin - Commanche Jim 4.6 3.25 Hay - Island Faith 2.7 3.40 Lin - Ken Scott 4.4 3.45 Wol - Dovedon Hero 7.8 3.50 Utt - Silence Reigns 9.2 4.05 Win - Blue Business 4.5 4.25 Utt - Howaya Pet 4.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 19, 2005 Author Share Posted February 19, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 19th Feb 1.45 Wol - Asharon 2.74 - 3rd Profit: 2.73 0.95 2.20 Utt - Blushing Bull 4.2 - UP Profit: 1.48 0.95 2.25 Hay - Baron Windrush 4.3 - UP Profit: 1.44 0.95 2.35 Win - Almost Broke 3.85 - 1st Profit: -5.00 -2.85 3.10 Lin - Commanche Jim 4.6 - UP Profit: 1.32 0.95 3.25 Hay - Island Faith 2.7 - UP Profit: 2.79 0.95 3.40 Lin - Ken Scott 4.4 - UP Profit: 1.38 0.95 3.45 Wol - Dovedon Hero 7.8 - UP Profit: 0.70 0.95 3.50 Utt - Silence Reigns 9.2 - UP Profit: 0.58 0.95 4.05 Win - Blue Business 4.5 - 1st Profit: -5.00 -3.5 4.25 Utt - Howaya Pet 4.8 - 3rd Profit: 1.25 0.95 Stakes: 55 pts 42.09 Profit: 3.67pts 2.20 New Bank: 105.62pts 110.08 UPDATE Current Bank:105.62pts Profit:5.62pts Staked:155pts Yield:3.63% Bets:31 Wins:25 Strikerate:80.65% Av.Odds Laid:4.92 Av.Odds Successful Lay:5.32 Current Bank:110.08 Profit:10.08pts Liabilities:121.51pts Yield:8.30% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 20, 2005 Author Share Posted February 20, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Selections 20th Feb 2.10 Tow - Abzuson 3.95 3.10 Tow - Happy Hussar 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 20, 2005 Author Share Posted February 20, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 20th Feb 2.10 Tow - Abzuson 3.95 - UP Profit: 1.61 0.95 3.10 Tow - Happy Hussar 5.5 - UP Profit: 1.05 0.95 Stakes: 10 pts 7.45 Profit: 2.66pts 1.90 New Bank: 108.28pts 111.98 UPDATE Current Bank:108.28pts Profit:8.28pts Staked:165pts Yield:5.02% Bets:33 Wins:27 Strikerate:81.82% Av.Odds Laid:4.91 Av.Odds Successful Lays:5.28 Av.Odds Unsuccessful Lays:3.28 Current Bank:111.98 Profit:11.98pts Liabilities:128.96pts Yield:9.29% After the first week and we have a nice little profit so far. Not quite as good as the unposted trial period but I think that would have been very optimistic to expect those kind of results to continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 21, 2005 Author Share Posted February 21, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Sorry about no selections today. Internet problems meant I couldnt get online until halfway through the day. Hopefully normal service will resume tommorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 22, 2005 Author Share Posted February 22, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post With Cheese n Biscuits a non runner there's just the one selection for today. Selections 22nd Feb 3.10 Lin - Green Pirate 4.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 22, 2005 Author Share Posted February 22, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 22nd Feb 3.10 Lin - Green Pirate 4.9 - UP Profit: 1.22 0.95 Stakes: 5 pts 3.9 Profit: 1.22pts 0.95 New Bank: 109.50pts 112.90 UPDATE Current Bank:109.50pts Profit:9.50pts Staked:170pts Yield:5.59% Bets:34 Wins:28 Strikerate:82.35% Av.Odds Laid:4.91 Av.Odds Successful Lays:5.27 Av.Odds Unsuccessful Lays:3.28 Current Bank:112.90 Profit:12.90pts Liabilities:132.86pts Yield:9.71% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 23, 2005 Author Share Posted February 23, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Only two survivors after the weather knocked out Doncaster and Ludlow :( Selections 23rd Feb 4.45 Lin - Bridge Loan 2.28 5.15 Lin - Taipan Tommy 4.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted February 23, 2005 Author Share Posted February 23, 2005 Re: Lay the Racing Post Results 23rd Feb 4.45 Lin - Bridge Loan 2.28 - 1st Profit: -5.00 -1.28 5.15 Lin - Taipan Tommy 4.2 - 2nd Profit: 1.48 0.95 Stakes: 10 pts 4.48 Profit: -3.52pts -0.33 New Bank: 105.98pts 112.57 UPDATE Current Bank:105.98pts Profit:5.98pts Staked:180pts Yield:3.32% Bets:36 Wins:29 Strikerate:80.56% Av.Odds Laid:4.82 Av.Odds Successful Lays:5.23 Av.Odds Unsuccessful Lays:3.14 Current Bank:112.57 Profit:12.57pts Liabilities:137.34pts Yield:9.15% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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