servecold Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 hi been a while but ive been busy reading up on betting an how the odds are compiled an stumbled upon a few scientific papers covering optimal betting odds an the FLB favourite long shot bias not sure i have it the right way round in excel an was wondering if any of you good people have managed to get a working model of shin 91.92.93 into excel an wouldn't mind showing an example thanks SC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB A working model of what m8? If you can put up a link to what you are talking about I'd br happy to cast an eye if it would help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/teaching/thesis/Shin91.pdf http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/teaching/thesis/Shin92.pdf http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/teaching/thesis/Shin93.pdf foundem think i have 91 an 92 but 93 puts them all together an it confused me this is the 1st paper lost the link to 92/93 but will look for them after ive had a crack at building a staking calc ive read about in precision which im hoping to build around these papers thanks saint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB the calc will trigger if the sums on page 1181 or (i)(ii)(iii)(iv) as they are on the page apply hopefully but its getting them into excel if this can be built i think it would be a useful tool to have :o) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB http://www.math.ku.dk/~rolf/teaching/thesis/Shin91.pdf this is the 1st paper lost the link to 92/93 but will look for them after ive had a crack at building a staking calc ive read about in precision which im hoping to build around these papers thanks saint Mr CX Wong!! I've not read it as yet - but I will. How did you find it? Seems to be a brilliant text from the snippets I have read - although I wasn't overly impressed with the spreadsheets I have seen thus far! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddDZ3dlRiTEtmTkt6ZVFpQW5XVzVCcVE#gid=0 this is a link to where im at sorry no formulas but if you read those 3 papers an excel your thing you should be able to get them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB upto chapter5 is great then the maths kicks in an thou mine is good you will need a degree in it as with these papers an i dont have a maths degree :O( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB sorry the last file was my 1st go heres a shhet from the 1st sept with formulas hopefully https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddFo4T1hiNnAyX0c4WU5ZVkg5TWdhVmc the error codes are just my ratings cant work out how to show both have to go work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB sorry the last file was my 1st go heres a shhet from the 1st sept with formulas hopefully https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddFo4T1hiNnAyX0c4WU5ZVkg5TWdhVmc the error codes are just my ratings cant work out how to show both have to go work the sheet is not accessable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddFo4T1hiNnAyX0c4WU5ZVkg5TWdhVmc Try that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB Havent read through all the papers yet will have a read later when Ive got more time Just a minor thing......... Is the equation in R2 correct? =(R3-(1/G2))/SQRT(U2*(1-U2)) Shouldnt that be =(U2-(1/G2))/SQRT(U2*(1-U2)) making it 4.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB could be M but i thought that was the answer to solve the beta? dont know why but your right M its loaded up wrong it should be u2 instead of R3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB I got the answer wrong tho. I got 4.5% somehow dont know where that came from :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB think you've taken it from the G column where ive used H i see your a manc to im in eccles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 11, 2012 Author Share Posted September 11, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB think its wrong so deleted it back to the drawing board :O/ ill leave the papers up maybe someone else can get it to work not a jumps fan so will have all winter to play with it good luck an i hope it makes someone a little or a lot richer :O) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB fell out of a loft today so will have an unofficial holiday noffin broken just ache all over so have a couple of weeks to get this up an running Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB reading other papers to make this efficient 3 prices should be used opening price,middle price(30 mins b4 off) and starting price now i dont have the software yet to make this possible as i dont know a thing about vba but i think using a site like odds checker and scraping the op/mp then possibly using a code to get the prices 2 mins b4 the off maybe a better indication of the winner if its an efficient market loads to take in but sounds good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB just found a ztest in excel is this the same as the z number in these sheets =2 * MIN(Z.TEST(array,x,sigma), 1 - Z.TEST(array,x,sigma)). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB think this needs Matlab Excel doesnt have a Hessian matrix an i don't have the know how on how to build 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddFR2LVB3MmNvelVQZGxHWU9RajUwQXc see how this does wont be posting these every day once ive got a better idea on what to pick will just post them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak14aRtxX-IddFR2LVB3MmNvelVQZGxHWU9RajUwQXc see how this does wont be posting these every day once ive got a better idea on what to pick will just post them Hi - just briefly - what do the columns on the spreadsheet signify/show? Good Luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
servecold Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 Re: excel help using shin FLB im hoping if i understand shins sheets correctly that a race has 2 ggs in it A-B or Fav-Outsider col F=odds col G=% col H=1st attempt at FLB col I=2nd attempt at FLB col J/k are the over all % chance of winning col LMN are my attempts at handicapping a race from data i get trail an error at the mo as im still unsure if i have read an understood shins papers properly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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