Thick as two short planks rugby system -0.94% yield for season full data on page 3.

[Marazan]

Bookies are pretty beatable at rugby - normally once a season there's a mortgage the house opportunity, Cardiff vs Ospreys (-4) in the Rabo last season was a crime and the bookies must have taken an absolute beating on the O's big win which was obvious to anyone who had an ounce of rugby knowledge. Of course, waiting for these home run opportunities is boring, so, a system to while away the time. From looking at the bookies odds over the years I've come to the conclusion that the must be using some fairly simple modeling to come up with their odds and not a huge amount of rugby knowledge. As a result I've tried to come up with as simple a model as possible to try and come up with handicaps. It's a incredibly simple linear sum which I've optimised using delta rule linear regression. Lets not beat around the bush, the formula uses a whole 3 variables per team, this is a thick handicapping formula that lacks subtlety and finesse but it gives good enough results to be break even just blindly betting of everything. So the basic rules of how I use my system are: I don't bet on a promoted team (so no London Welsh for Aviva betting and no Zebre for Rabo) I like a 4 point difference between my handicap and the bookies before betting but not always. The handicapper doesn't take into account the team injury situation (although it does factor in the autumn and six nations international periods) so if a team is completely banjaxed through injury I may throw away results and not use them. First picks coming up shortly.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system I will be doing this as a real life picks using Will Hill exclusively. Even though this obviously won't give me the best odds possible Will Hill has thrown me so much money from free Roullette offers I feel they should have a chance to win some of it back.