Thick as two short planks rugby system -0.94% yield for season full data on page 3.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Injured arm so short summary: Glasgow, Leicester and Northampton came in, Bath and Sale did not (despite Bath's start) Total staked: 75 Number of bets: 87 Winning bets: 57 Losing bets: 30 Strike rate: 65.5% Yield: -1.66% Profit (or Loss): -1.25 Profitability is almost in sight!

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield Where are you Marazan ? Hope everything's OK - been missing your posts. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield

Where are you Marazan ? Hope everything's OK - been missing your posts. Nobber.

The handicapper doesn't do the European Cup, too many extra variables to track (qualification chances, bonus point situations, whether teams are going for lucky losers runners up spots, whether French sides have given up after one game etc) plus a very small sample size to run the regression over. I leave it well alone. No, my handicapper is for league rugby only.

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield OK, good call. Look forward to next weekend then...always assuming we've not turned into Eskimos (sorry, Inuits) by then. Good luck. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield

OK, good call. Look forward to next weekend then...always assuming we've not turned into Eskimos (sorry, Inuits) by then. Good luck. Nobber.

Not yet, it's LV cup games for England and Wales. Next league matches are on the weekend of the 8/9/10 Feb.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield Looks like Wills is leaving it late before posting prices.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%]

[TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:45 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Sale (-3.0) v Exeter[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%] [TR] [TH=class: leftPad title, bgcolor: #0682C7, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH=bgcolor: #0682C7, align: center][/TH] [TH=bgcolor: #0682C7, align: center][/TH] [TH=bgcolor: #0682C7, align: center][/TH] [TH=class: leftPad title, bgcolor: #0682C7, colspan: 5][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:05 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Ulster (-9.0) v Ospreys[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:30 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Cardiff Blues (-1.0) v Leinster[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:30 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Dragons (-7.0) v Treviso[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:30 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Scarlets (-8.0) v Connacht[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] That's Will Hill's offer, my handicapper says SaleSharks ExeterChiefs -2 NoBet (Too close to 0, would needed to have been -4 or above to take the Exeter Win) or handicap Ulster Ospreys 2 NoBet (Not a big enough gap to take the handicap on the Ospreys) Blues Leinster 1 NoBet (Exact match to bookie) Dragons Treviso 10 0.5 Units @ 1.28 Scarlets Connacht 8 NoBet (Exact match to bookie) Meager pickings indeed.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%]

[TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Live At[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]12:30 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Northampton (-7.0) v Gloucester[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]14:15 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Bath (-7.0) v Worcester[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]15:00 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]London Irish v Saracens (-3.0)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]20:00 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Harlequins (-7.0) v Wasps[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: tableData, width: 100%] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]Today[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]19:45 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Munster (-8.0) v Edinburgh[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rowOdd] [TD=class: leftPad]10 Feb[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]14:05 UK[/TD] [TD=class: leftPad]Zebre v Glasgow (-8.0)[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Says Will Hill, my Handicapper says: Saints Gloucester +14 1 Unit @1.33 Bath Worcester +8 NoBet London Irish Saracens -3 NoBet Harlequins Wasps +12 0.5 Unit @ 1.33 Munster Edinburgh +19 1 Unit @ 1.28 Saint bet the dogiest of the lot there.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Winner[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]0.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD].28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total Staked[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Total Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]-1.08[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Awful stuff: Total staked: 78 Number of bets: 91 Winning bets: 59 Losing bets: 32 Strike rate: 64.8% Yield: -2.98% Profit (or Loss): -2.33 I think my conclusion when I review at the end of the season is that I shouldn't be betting during the international period. Also a bit of proper knowledge might make the international period a ripe picking ground for the informed punter.

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield Marazan, Totally agree with your comments re. betting during the 6N period - but you must do your homework on the latest team sheets, which the bookies don't/can't do as they have to get the prices out early. I checked the Munster and Edin. teams line up just prior to yesterday's game and it was obvious that when you included home advantage, Munster were a stand out bet at -7 @ 10/11 (Stan James) Same applied, but to a slightly lesser extent, to the Dragons/Treviso game. Because I'm less familiar with the Aviva Prem. clubs I couldn't tell how severely or otherwise they were affected, so no bets there. I only bet on what I know or am familiar with. Great thread by the way. Good luck. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 87 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -1.66% Yield Yes, I have no idea why I didn't put 1.5 units on Munster, it was well within my scope (+11 points over the handicap) for doing so. Would have helped stem the loss. Lack of attention to detail by me there.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield [TABLE=width: 463]

[TR] [TD=width: 70, bgcolor: black]Home[/TD] [TD=width: 60, bgcolor: black]Away[/TD] [TD=width: 101, bgcolor: black]Handicapper[/TD] [TD=width: 65, bgcolor: black]Choice[/TD] [TD=width: 71, bgcolor: black]H. Odds[/TD] [TD=width: 68, bgcolor: black]A.Odds[/TD] [TD=width: 115, bgcolor: black]Bookies Result[/TD] [TD=width: 67, bgcolor: black]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Connacht[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]Ospreys[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]-4[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]NoBet[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2.3[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]-2[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]Blues[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]NoBet[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2.62[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]5[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl65]Dragons[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]Warriors[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]-3[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]NoBet[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]2.5[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]1.53[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]-4[/TD] [TD=class: xl65]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The only bet that meets my criteria is the Edinburgh Blues match but I'm fairly certain Ed will win but I simply have no confidence in either side to be anything other than pish so I'm leaving it alone. Otherwise once again myself and the bookies are in firm agreement so no value to be had.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield [TABLE=width: 771]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper[/TD] [TD]Selection[/TD] [TD]H Odds[/TD] [TD]A Odds[/TD] [TD]Bookies Prediciton[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BathRugby[/TD] [TD]LondonIrish[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]LeicesterTigers[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]ExeterChiefs[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD]4.33[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]WorcesterWarriors[/TD] [TD]NorthamptonSaints[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LondonWasps[/TD] [TD]GloucesterRugby[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Remaing Games in the Rab give nothing - my handicapper and Bookies handicaps synch up on the Leinster and the Scarlets matches (for the record I redict a 2 point greater win for Leinster than the bookies and Scarlets by 1 over the draw predicted by the bookies). As for the Aviva prem, I actually fancy Wasps to do Gloucester but they don't beat the margin by the necessary 4 points. I'm half tempted by Worcester but the prediction is too close to "situation uncertain". That leaves only the Harlequins match.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield Harlequins won, yay. Total staked: 78.5 Number of bets: 92 Winning bets: 60 Losing bets: 32 Strike rate: 65.2% Yield: -2.33% Profit (or Loss): -1.83

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield Two bets this Friday evening, Handicapper ahs Glasgow by 10 vs by 5 for the bookies so half a unit on them to do the deed over Ulster. Ospreys by 17 as opposed to 11 so another half unit bet on the Ospreys vs Edinburgh match. Everything else in both the Rabo and Aviva is basically the same handicaps so no value there.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield Ooops, forgot to list the odds, @1.5 for Glasgow and @1.17 for the Ospreys.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield Predicting a 6 points Saracens win instead of 5 point Leicester win. so 0.5 Units @ 2.75 on the Saracens Predicting a 14 points Leinster win instead of 9 point Leinster win. so 0.5 Units @ 1.2 on the Saracens No bets on other matches - Treviso-Munster handicap disagree by only a point, Saint - Bath handicap exactly the same, Irish - Wasps handiap only differs by 3 which is not enough.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 91 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.98% Yield Well I'm glad to report a weekend of stunning success, every bet came off, most pleasing being the Leicester-Saracens game where I was backing the underdog. Total staked: 90.5 Number of bets: 96 Winning bets: 64 Losing bets: 32 Strike rate: 66.6% Yield: -0.57% Profit (or Loss): -0.52 Just did a audit of my figures and I realise I've been under reporting how many units I've bet in these summaries by 10 units. I introduced the error back in post #45. Doesn't really change the fundamentals, overall I'm still fractionally unprofitable but this week has been a good week.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 96 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.57% Yield Warriors Blues 5 Munster Ospreys 4 Dragons Leinster 1 Scarlets Edinburgh 14 Ulster Treviso 15 WorcesterWarriors LondonWasps 5 BathRugby GloucesterRugby 10 Harlequins ExeterChiefs 10 LeicesterTigers SaleSharks 1 NorthamptonSaints LondonIrish 8 Is my predictions which when combine with Will Hills handicaps for the games prices up means Worcester, 0.5 units @1.8 Bath, 0.5 units @1.53 Cardiff 0.25 unit +13 handicap, @1.91 Handicapper is predicting a ridiculously unlikely 1 point win for the Dragons as opposed to Leinster by 11 from the Bookies. But Dragons heads have gone, no chance of that so no bet

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 96 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.57% Yield No more bets this weekend, technically the Sale match should be a punt on the Handicap but I just don't see it. However, I said that about the Dragons game an it would have been a winner if I had went for it.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 96 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.57% Yield Well Worcester and Bath did the decent thing and won, Cardiff couldn't hang on in there end and lost by 16 so failed to cover the handicap. I was proven right to have left the Sale result well alone. And hands up who saw the Ulster-Treviso result coming, no-one? No-one? Good. Running total is Total staked: 91.75Number of bets: 99 Winning bets: 66 Losing bets: 33 Strike rate: 66.6% Yield: -0.11% Profit (or Loss): -0.10 Almost there, almost there. . . Although rechecking my figures reveals another error in my Profit (loss) figure. I'm going to have to go back across my entire betting history (yawn) to find out what the error is. It's potentially no biggie I could be as much as 40 pence (gasp) in profit.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield False alarem, found my error, entered a result wrong in the spreadsheet (recorded the Harlequins - Wasps game as a win for Quins a few weeks ago rather than a win for Wasps) Soreadsheet figures are wrong, the ones I've posted are correct.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield Yay, league betting action, Friday's games: Sale Sharks-Bath Rugby (-3), bookies predict -1 so no bet Edinburgh-Ulster (3), bookies predict -5 so whilst an 8 point swing too close to 0 so not bet. Ospreys-Dragons (20), bookies predict 16 so 0.5 units bet at 1.08. Not the most exciting predictions, and that Edinburgh result looks mentalist, but I think the O's bet is more than safe.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield Well, clearly my handicapper knows more than me about rugby. I clearly should have bet on Ed on the Handicap. What a pussy I am.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield Oh balls, missed the start of Saturdays matches. Here are my remaining handicaps Treviso-Blues -3 (No Bet, Will hill have -6) Leinster-Warriors 10 (No Bet, Willhill have 8) Munster-Connacht 16 (No Bet, Will hill have 13) LondonWasps-NorthamptonSaints -16 (Missed start of this match so no bet) Saracens Harlequins 0 (Nobet) ExeterChiefs-LeicesterTigers -11 (1 unit Leiceseter @ 1.53) LondonIrish-WorcesterWarriors 14 ( No price yet)

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield I tell a lie about the Treviso-Blues game, bookies actually have it as +6 (So Treviso win, rather than my handicappers -3). Still no bet though, identical looking thing to the Edinburgh game but the fact that Blues are away from home makes me more cautious.

[SteveO]

Cardiff have about 15 squad players injured with the majority of those first teamers. I think Treviso will win fairly easily. Sent from my HTC Wildfire using PL Forum

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 99 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -0.1% Yield I seem to have completely missed WillHill's entry for the Irish - Worcester match. That's a bit annoying. Well this week has been a bit of a bust then due to lack of attention on my part. Ospreys and Leicester did the business but If I'd made it to the computer in time (having checked the historical prices) I'd have had a bet on Saints and Irish as well. The Saints game would have given me a heart attack but it would still have bee a monster winner. Grr. Oh well, at least it is a profitable week. Total staked: 93.25 Number of bets: 101 Winning bets: 68 Losing bets: 33 Strike rate: 67.3% Yield: +0.50% Profit (or Loss): +0.47 (PROFIT!)

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 101 bets, 67% Strike R0ate, +0.5% Yield Gloucester - Harlequins -1 (Bookies have +2 so no bet) Glasgow - Munster +7 (Bookies have +6 so no bet) Well, what a boring Friday. Have to say I'm glad the Glos/Quins match was so balanced on a knife edge by the handicapper, would not have wanted to pick sides, feels like pretty much any result could happen.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 101 bets, 67% Strike R0ate, +0.5% Yield On