Thick as two short planks rugby system -0.94% yield for season full data on page 3.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.05[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2.37[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.08[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The Glasgow prediction from the handicapper is nuts but, hey, I've gotta do what I've gotta do

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]0.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2.37[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]1.37[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.08[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]0.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.05[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]0.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northmpaton[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]Northmpton[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]-2.99[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Vexingly I only managed to get my bet on the Scarlets at 1.8, by the time I had finished making the post their price had been cut. So I have reflected that her in the profit and loss account. Basically English rugby has once again screwed me but at least in a more honest way that by getting draws. Total staked: 54 Number of bets: 55 Winning bets: 38 Losing bets: 17 Strike rate: 69.1% Yield: 2.77% Profit (or Loss): 1.50 For those interested my Yield on the Rabo is 16% and on the Aviva Prem it's -9%.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found Well first week of international affected games so lets see what the predict-o-tron says: [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.11[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Damn it, bookies got there ahead of me it seems. Only Ulster makes any sense to back at these prices. Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more porfitable. Incidentally the Galsgow gamne was predicted at a 16 point blow out if this wasn't in the international period. The other games didn't alter that much.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Quins[/TD] [TD]Glos[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Quins[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Almost tempted to take Saints on the handicap with a 5 point gap between prediction and bookies. But then I remember they have Callum Clark playing for them and I just hope they lose too much.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]0.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Quins[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]Quins[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]0.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.11[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]0.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]0.67[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total Staked[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]1.66[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Well, Good week. So after a few weeks in the Aviva Prem my handicapper has picked 4 handicaps exactly on the money, none in the Rabo. Of the games I didn't bet on this week the the handicapper picked the winners correctly but here wasn't any value in the bets. Total staked: 58.5 Number of bets: 59 Winning bets: 42 Losing bets: 17 Strike rate: 71.1% Yield: 5.4% Profit (or Loss): 3.16

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 59 bets, 71% Strike Rate, 5.4% Yield What's that you say? You desperately want to know how a system that compeltely ignores current form will predict how this weekends Aviva and Rabo games will go down? Well as luck would have it here are some predictions. [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]-6[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]2.87[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Some big calls by the handicapper this week. Fingers crossed for the Treviso match in particular.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 59 bets, 71% Strike Rate, 5.4% Yield Remaining Matches [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]Tigers[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Only the Munster game looks a worthwhile pick. Sale are just too pish to back on the handicap. Slightly tempted by Leicester but it's within my 4 point margin of error so I'm steering clear.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 59 bets, 71% Strike Rate, 5.4% Yield Well that's how to do spectacular failure then. 5 units invested for .7 return. Total staked: 63.5 Number of bets: 65 Winning bets: 43 Losing bets: 22 Strike rate: 66.1% Yield: -1.79% Profit (or Loss): -1.14

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 65 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -1.17% Yield [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]Northmpaton[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Only a few markets priced up by Wills so far.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 65 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -1.17% Yield [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Dragons+7[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Glasgow+10[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]2.37[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bloody dubious about most of these picks to be honest. Might need to give the handicapper a good kick to see if it bucks up it's ideas.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 65 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -1.17% Yield [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Meh.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 65 bets, 66% Strike Rate, -1.17% Yield Disastrous week in the normally reliable Rabo. Every bet failed. My two bets in the Aviva prem came off. Sigh. To depressed to do a full break down. Total staked: 69.5 Number of bets: 71 Winning bets: 45 Losing bets: 26 Strike rate: 63.4% Yield: -6.6% Profit (or Loss): -4.59

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 71 bets, 63% Strike Rate, -6.6% Yield So that's the ERC out the way for a few weeks at least: Only worthwhile bet this week so far is Glasgow vs Edinburgh (Glasgow @ 1.36 - 1.5 units) Bookies predict 6 points, my handicapper predicts 17. Cardiff Scarlets I predict Scarlets by 2, bookies by 1. Ulster - Leinster bookies say Ulster by 5, I say Ulster by 2 so no bet.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 71 bets, 63% Strike Rate, -6.6% Yield English league now [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]-5 (WTF!)[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Sale + 11[/TD] [TD]1.91 @(bet 0.5)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Munster Connacht game is no bet (My -5 vs their -3).

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 71 bets, 63% Strike Rate, -6.6% Yield The disasters of yesterday are forgotten. We sail majestically into a profitable week. Every bet bar the saints bet won. So still a distance from from overall profitability but better than a kick in the teeth. Yule tide period stopping me doing a fullbreak down but here is the summary. Total staked: 65 Number of bets: 76 Winning bets: 49 Losing bets: 27 Strike rate: 64.4% Yield: -6.1% Profit (or Loss): -3.97

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield Ospreys @ 1.4, one unit. Cardiff Drags match Nobet

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield Only just found this thread...brilliant. Fancy the Osprey's to turn over the Scarlets myself. Good luck. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield

Only just found this thread...brilliant.

Not that brilliant, I am down 5.5% afterall! Though given that Will's over-round for Rugby is 11% I'm at least beating guessing randomly. If I shopped around for my odds rather than sticking to Will's I imagine I'd be touching close to break even. Anyway, The Osprey's did me proud: Total staked: 66 Number of bets: 77 Winning bets: 50 Losing bets: 27 Strike rate: 64.9% Yield: -5.4% Profit (or Loss): -3.57

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield Sale's match vs Worcester is a No Bet. Handicapper predicts 5 point win vs 3 from the bookies.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield [TABLE=class: grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]HOME[/TD] [TD]AWAY[/TD] [TD]HANDICAPPER[/TD] [TD]BOOKIE PREDICTION[/TD] [TD]SELECTION[/TD] [TD]PRICE[/TD] [TD]AMOUNT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]-8[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Irish[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] No bet on the Musnter Ulster game due to the second XV that Ulster are putting out.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 76 bets, 64% Strike Rate, -6.1% Yield Oh happy days, a penalty off the cross bar away from a clean sweep. So not back into profitability yet but working my way there. Slightly annoyed with myself that I didn't take the handicap on the Northampton game but if that penalty hadn't died I'd have been kicking myself if I had. So all in all a good festive season so far. [TABLE=class: cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1.65[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total Staked[/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]Total Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Total staked: 70.5 Number of bets: 81 Winning bets: 53 Losing bets: 28 Strike rate: 65.4% Yield: -2.62% Profit (or Loss): -1.85

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Ospreys @ 1.28 for half a unit. Handicapper predicts -11, bookies -8.

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Good call - spot on with the handicapping. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield The Ospreys win gives me another 0.14 units in the pot to make up my deficit: Total staked: 71 Number of bets: 82 Winning bets: 54 Losing bets: 28 Strike rate: 65.9% Yield: -2.41% Profit (or Loss): -1.71

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield

Good call - spot on with the handicapping. Nobber.

Always nice when I hit spot on. So far this season though the bookies handicaps have a slightly lower Root Mean Square error (thus meaning they are more accurate) than my handicaps, I'm much closer on the Rabo than the Aviva Prem.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Glasow[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]-8[/TD] [TD]-9[/TD] [TD]No Bet[/TD] [TD]N/A[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Bath and Northampton half a unit each @ 2,75 and 2.1 respectively. Prediction of -3 and -6 respectively. No bets on anything else, all a bit close.

[Nobber]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Bummer, did not want to see you tipping Bath as I've already had a bet on Wasps. Happily, I also fancy Northampton to come away with a victory. Good luck. Nobber.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Oh, I've also back Sale on the Handicap (+15) for half a unit @ 1.91. That's definitely a bit out there by the handicapper. Predicted a 6 points Saracens wins rather than the 15 of the bookies.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - 81 bets, 65% Strike Rate, -2.62% Yield Done some "what if" backtesting of this season's numbers. If I'd bet on the handicap market, flat bets, and only on matches where my predict-o-tron favoured the winner by 13 points over the bookies then I' have bet on 10 matches for an 80% strike rate and a 52% ROI. That's pretty anomalous though - at a 12 point margin the ROI would be around 25% ROI on 17 matches. There is though a pretty obvious linear trend in increasing ROI as I increase the margin of safety. Calculating that was a bit messed up by the Aviva Prem wher I actually managed hit a handicap draw @ 17 which gave a ridiculously inflated ROI of 24% on the Aviva prem just blindly following the predict-o-tron with no margin of safety. I think this goes to show what I stated in my original post - proper betting on rugby is game of waiting for the bookies to properly **** up pricing a match and piling on at those rare moments. I would love to get my hands on some historical bookies prices for previous seasons, I can get the betfair data but that is a pain to parse, isn't super reliable and their handicaps are often a bit squiffy. A historical record of Will Hill rugby prices (or any other mainstream bookie would be a godsend.