Thick as two short planks rugby system -0.94% yield for season full data on page 3.

[Marazan]

Bookies are pretty beatable at rugby - normally once a season there's a mortgage the house opportunity, Cardiff vs Ospreys (-4) in the Rabo last season was a crime and the bookies must have taken an absolute beating on the O's big win which was obvious to anyone who had an ounce of rugby knowledge. Of course, waiting for these home run opportunities is boring, so, a system to while away the time. From looking at the bookies odds over the years I've come to the conclusion that the must be using some fairly simple modeling to come up with their odds and not a huge amount of rugby knowledge. As a result I've tried to come up with as simple a model as possible to try and come up with handicaps. It's a incredibly simple linear sum which I've optimised using delta rule linear regression. Lets not beat around the bush, the formula uses a whole 3 variables per team, this is a thick handicapping formula that lacks subtlety and finesse but it gives good enough results to be break even just blindly betting of everything. So the basic rules of how I use my system are: I don't bet on a promoted team (so no London Welsh for Aviva betting and no Zebre for Rabo) I like a 4 point difference between my handicap and the bookies before betting but not always. The handicapper doesn't take into account the team injury situation (although it does factor in the autumn and six nations international periods) so if a team is completely banjaxed through injury I may throw away results and not use them. First picks coming up shortly.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system I will be doing this as a real life picks using Will Hill exclusively. Even though this obviously won't give me the best odds possible Will Hill has thrown me so much money from free Roullette offers I feel they should have a chance to win some of it back.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system

Home	                        Away	                        Predicted Result   Picked Team	        Odds	   Bookie Result     	Amount Staked
LondonWasps	        Harlequins	                -11	                Harlequins	                1.4	   -5	                        1

ExeterChiefs	        SaleSharks	                5	                ExeterChiefs	        1.61	   3	                        1

GloucesterRugby	        NorthamptonSaints	-6	                NorthamptonSaints	2.75	   4	                        1

WorcesterWarriors	BathRugby	                1	                WorcesterWarriors	2.62	   -4	                        0.5	
Saracens	                LondonIrish	                6	                Saracens	                1.28	   8                            1 

Rabo picks coming when the odds are out.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system And I'll work on my formatting too.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system

Treviso vs Ospreys (Handicapper Prediction -12) Pick Ospreys @ 1.73 with 1.5 units

The Ulster vs Glasgow game by handcipper came with a 3 point head start for Glasgow while will hill thinks +2 so no bet from me. No prices for the other Rabo weekend games yet.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system Remaining Rabo games are all too tight, my Handicapper is Blues by 3, Scarlets by 2 and Munster/Edinburgh draw. Slightly tempted by the Munster +4 WH are offering but not worth it I think so just sticking with the picks I've made so far for this week.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system [TABLE=class: grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]-11[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]0.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]0.61[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]2.62[/TD] [TD].5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]-6[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]0.28[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Total Staked[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Total Profit Lost[/TD] [TD]1.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So, early days Total staked: 6 Number of bets: 6 Winning bets: 4 Losing bets:2 Strike rate: 66.7% Yield: 17.3% Profit (or Loss): +1.04

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system So, some comments: Ospreys game was shafted the moment they picked up a red card half way through the first half, and they still could have come back from that if but for a bit of luck when going for the line. Two blow out games in the Aviva prem and an almost perfectly predicted Gloucester - Saints match. No idea what the bookies were thinking there should have been more confident and increased the stake. And Worcester's loss was last minute as well. Fairly pleased with the first round of the system.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system Slightly gutted. If I'd went with my handicapper on the other Rabo picks I'd have had three more winners.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system So round two. The Handicapper is suggesting some big blow out score this week. Not sure how much I believe them so not going for the better odds on the handicap - just sticking to straight wins. [TABLE=class: cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.05[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.28[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system Friday night Rabo games. Nothing very spectacular. Find myself in agreement with the bookies on the Munster and Cardiff matches. Don't think the fact I'm a Glasgow supporter has affected the handicapper in the Scarlets match. [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Handicapper is just nuts on this one - given that Leinster are massively understrength. Still, I think home advantage will see them through. Probably should give it a miss.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system [TABLE=class: cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD].5[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]0.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [TD].5[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]0.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]14[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD].5[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]25[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.05[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]Irish[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]-9[/TD] [TD]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-16[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]0.80[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]-2.99[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Fairly dreadful week this week. I may have to start adding a manual correction to the Glasgow predicitons as they are looking nothing like the team that got to the play-offs last season So running total: Total staked: 16 Number of bets: 16 Winning bets: 10 Losing bets:6 Strike rate: 62.5% Yield: -12.19% Profit (or Loss): -1.95

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]2.87[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Well a big weekend in the Aviva for the handicapper. Two scratch games where it is calling the winner and two opposite calls in the Worcester and Wasps matches. Could be a real make or break moment for the early season capabilities of the system.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]-[/TD] [TD]-[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I've gone gun shy on Glasgow. My feeling is it should be Ospreys by 6 which is too tight for me to go Glasgow +8 on the handicap. I totally should though.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system Balls, should have backed Glasgow on the handicap. Anyway, here are the rest of the weekends Rabo picks [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]-9[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Drags - Cardiff match is crazy dodgy and neither the Scarlets or Leinster bets are that good value thus the small bets on each of them.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]0.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]0.6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trevios[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]0.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]23[/TD] [TD]0.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]2.87[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]29[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-10[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]-1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]-2.08[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Total staked: 24 Number of bets: 25 Winning bets: 16 Losing bets:9 Strike rate: 64% Yield: -16.7% Profit (or Loss): -4.03 Summary of the week : I really, really hate draws. Both the Leicester and Worcester result were ruined by their opponents coming from behind to snatch the draw. Also - should have followed the handicapper on the Glasgow match.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws New week, new bets. [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] London Irish [/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.08[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]-3[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Ospreys +9[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]13[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Ospreys are going to get beat but I kind of agree with the handciapper that it isn't going to be as bad as people think (If you listen to Ospreys fans you'd think a 30 point difference stuffing is coming up).

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.07[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws Well, much better strike rate this weekend but fairly easy (and low odds) games to pick in the Rabo. [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]1.07[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]0.04[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]0.33[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Ospreys +9[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD].91[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]16[/TD] [TD]0.11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.06[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD].06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]27[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.08[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]0.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]0.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.4[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]London Irish[/TD] [TD]2.1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]7[/TD] [TD]1.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]+0.81[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Running Total Total staked: 16 Number of bets: 35 Winning bets: 24 Losing bets:11 Strike rate: 68.6% Yield: -6.83% Profit (or Loss): -2.22 Looking at the change from last week I think I cocked up the maths for the profit and yield. this week I've extended my spreadshhet to calculate it automatically so should be more accurate.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Northampton[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Worcester Match was predicted draw by the handicapper and 3 by the bookies so no bet.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]-4[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.05[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Sale +10[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]Saracens + 4[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Spankyf]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws Good stuff Marazan, following with interest :clap

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Predicted Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Actual Result[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]11[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]1.10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]-29[/TD] [TD]-0.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]1.8[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]0.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]Sale+10[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]21[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]17[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]22[/TD] [TD]0.17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Saracens+4[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]0.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]-13[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]28[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]Staked[/TD] [TD]8.5[/TD] [TD]Profit/Loss[/TD] [TD]0.07[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] It's a marathon not a sprint as I claw my way back to profitability, side note - Llanelli are a bunch of useless twunts - last minute penbalty in non-threatening position to lose the match. Bravo lads. Total staked: 42 Number of bets: 44 Winning bets: 29 Losing bets: 15 Strike rate: 65.9% Yield: -5.12% Profit (or Loss): -2.16

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]-20[/TD] [TD]-7[/TD] [TD]Leicester[/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gloucester[/TD] [TD]Bath[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Exeter[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]-1[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Irish[/TD] [TD]Saints[/TD] [TD]-6[/TD] [TD]-5[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wasps[/TD] [TD]Warriors[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So it's days like these that make me think the bookies are using a very similar model to what I'm using. The synch up is uncanny to the extreme. What with hewing to the bookies handicap so closely and all the games being relatively tight I don't think there is much to be made by betting on anything but the Leicester banker. I might re-evaluate my stance on the Gloucester and Saints matches tomorrow.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]19[/TD] [TD]12[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]20[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1.08[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]10[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - stabbed in the back by draws Quick update for final two Mangers matches Selecting Leinster and Glasgow at 1.5 units each. Handicapper predicting 6 point Glasgow win vs Bookies 6 point Cardiff win and 19 point Leinster win vs bookies 5 point win.

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found No time to do a full break down but my gun shyness in relation to the English Prem and the Edinburgh game have paid off dividends. Every bet won this weekend. Overall figures: Total staked: 48.5 Number of bets: 49 Winning bets: 34 Losing bets: 15 Strike rate: 69.4% Yield: 4.26% Profit (or Loss): 2.07

[Marazan]

Re: Thick as two short planks rugby system - and lo, profitability was found So after the happy fun time break fo the Europeans Cup competitions it is back to the bread and butter of the league: [TABLE=class: cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_cms_table_grid, width: 1000]

[TR] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Handicapper Result[/TD] [TD]Bookie Result[/TD] [TD]Picked[/TD] [TD]odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Worcester[/TD] [TD]Sale[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]-9[/TD] [TD]NoBet[/TD] [TD]NA[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]-2[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]1.91[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] No way are Ulster going to lose the game against the Drags, but with the handicapper saying otherwise I have to give the game a miss. Similarily a draw predicted by the handciapper on the Worcester -Sale game means that's a no go. I might normally be tempted on the handicap but Sale are really very pish. Ed-Sca game is tight on the handicapper but Edinburgh are really very, very poor this season so a half bet on the Scarlets to pick up an away win that the handicapper suggests is reasonable.