BBOTD Friday 24th August

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Seen as I had a decent winner today, I'll put up my biggest-price fancy tomorrow in an attempt to peg back Boulder! :lol 2.00 York - 1pt win Tepmokea @ 25/1 (Hills) Elaine Burke's runner is not one of the flashy types in here or an unexposed 3yo but has plenty of ability and conditions should be spot on for him here. His last two wins came over today's c&d and the latter of those (May 2011) came off today's mark of 90. He gets 3lbs taken off his back by Michael Metcalfe so he's definitely weighted to have a chance and he hasn't run badly this season apart from when stone last in the Silver Cup here last time out. I backed him on his seasonal return here on his first run for this yard but realised afterwards that Karl Burke had stated that he would need the run and his prime target was the Ebor. However, he still ran a highly encouraging race to go down by 2 1/2l having travelled nicely and only fading at the death. That was off a mark of 93 and given he wasn't fully tuned up, he was a big eyecatcher for me. He was sent off favourite over 1m5f at Ayr in an attempt to get his mark up for the Ebor and to prove he stayed the trip. The described good ground in the formbook isn't accurate as it was softer than that and his stamina just didn't last out the extra furlong on soft ground. He is a horse who handles soft and stays 1m4f but stamina wouldn't be his strong suit in my opinion so it wasn't a huge surprise that he couldn't finish his race off as well as connections would have liked. He went for the Old Newton Cup at Haydock over a furlong shorter on soft next time and bounced back to run another great race, just run down inside the final furlong having led for the vast majority of the contest. His subsequent run here over 1m6f last time was a disaster as he just ran really flat but it's no great surprise given it came just a week after that tough race at Haydock and was probably just a desperate attempt to get his rating up sufficiently to make the Ebor field. Connections presumably realised it wasn't going to happen and reassessed for this race which I believe he's been laid out for. Any rain that comes is of no inconvenience, although I wouldn't like it to be totally bottomless, and he goes particularly well here as mentioned. The break should have freshened him up as he's had about 5 weeks off and is capable of running well fresh too. I like horses who are up with the pace at York which this one should be and stall 7 isn't a bad draw. Should put in a good stint from near the front and for that reason I think he'll be bang there with a furlong or two to race and I just hope he can keep it up late on.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Friday 24th August *Nocturnal Affair - York 3:40* I wrote this on my antepost thread for this horse a couple of weeks ago. I think it is important when antepost betting to try and get the horses that you know are being targeted for the specific race. I do know that all 3 of my selections here are being targeted at the race, so that is half the battle for me. Nocturnal Affair is my main bet as i feel he is way overpriced at 25/1. The David Marnane trained 6 year old had some great runs over in Meydan at the Dubai Carnival during the winter where he won a valuable handicap and in the Al Quoz sprint on the final night, he was 6th behind Ortensia, but was only 2 lengths behind that horse on the night, and was only about half a length behind Sole Power who was 2nd that night, so there is not much between them at all on the form line, and Ortensia and Sole Power are two of the market leaders for this race. He then had a 5 month break and Marnane ran him in a Listed event at Tipperary where it was a very nice 2nd to Inxile, and was not given an awfully hard time as it was a prep run, and that was highly encouraging. The trainer is quietly confident that he can snatch the Nunthorpe and i feel 25/1 will look a big price come the day. *0.5 Points e/w @ 25/1 VC BOG*