Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 17th July

[FedericoBTH]

BEVERLEY 2.00 Capitol Gain - 0.5pts E/W 9/1 (Betfred) BOG Very very speculative bet in a very poor race imho. Capitol Gain will use cheekpieces today and I'm curious to see what could produce under these conditions, after a very good performance in Windsor last month in his handicap debut, which was also his only trip over today distance. Lower mark today and Brian Meehan usually send good horses there in Beverley, so even considered the situation of the three favs (Ella Jade charged of +4 in hc and unexposed over 10f, Scarlet Prince definitely not impressive in the only hc appearance and Bada Bing absolutely overrated, mainly because of Winston presence) a good run doesn't look impossible to me. SOUTHWELL 6.00 Wreningham - 0.5pts E/W 12/1 (VCBet) BOG This one popped out immediately out of the racecards. 5f longtime specialist this 7yo has an incredible 2/4 record over C+D, having collected two wins there last December. He is a very competitive horse over this distance and except for Soopacal I don't see anyone else clearly better than him on paper. Back to Class 5 after some decent performances in 4 (he was 5th out of 9 when back after break just two weeks ago at Salisbury in a very great race) and with the same mark of 64 but with the Kenny's 5lb claim I really think he could run for the money with ease. A win will be hard to get but I think at 12/1 this guy is absolutely overpriced, so I'm gonna take a juicy E/W early. ----- FLAT SEASON Bets: 4 Wins: 1 SR: 25.00% P/L: +3.00£ Yield: +75.00%

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 17th July 2.00 Beverley MISS ELLA JADE 4pts win @ 7/2 bog (Ladbrokes and many more) Lightly raced 3yo filly who had shown little in her first 6 starts but improved a lot in the last few weeks moved to 3yo+ handicaps finishing second and first in the last two outings both over 1m at Pontefract (first on soft ground, second on good ground) off a mark of 51. Her latest winning effort showed she could improve a good deal upped in distance since she won going away and coming with a very strong finish from last to first in the final 2f. Paul Quinn has ridden 2 winners from 3 rides this month and 3 winners and 2 close seconds from 8 rides in the last 4 weeks and is operating at a good 13% strike rate this year (4 winners from 30 rides). Richard Whitaker has had just one winner of late (Miss Ella Jade's last success at Pontefract 15 days ago) but all his 9 runners saddled in the last 3 weeks finished in the money (1 winner, 2 second, 4 thirds and 2 fourths) so the stable isn't in bad form for sure. The opposition isn't the strongest you could find even for such a low level (0-65 class 6 handicap) with Bada Bing and Scarlet Prince the co-market leaders supported after their last decent efforts, both second in quite poor races where they showed nothing special imho. My main concern would be a least exposed type like the Brian Meehan-trained Capitol Gain (Luke Morris on board and first time cheekpieces today) or Gangsterbanksters who wears first-time visor today and represent the very in-form Karl & Elaine Burke's stable (6 winners in the last 10 days, 5 ridden by today's 3lb claimer Michael Metcalfe) but hopefully my selection is in better form at the moment and improving for the step up in distance should be able to follow up her latest win off a 4lb higher mark.