FLAT RACING MON 16TH JULY

[richard-westwood]

hard going at the moment trying to find winners ......back to speed ratings now for a bit .....should pick up a winners hopefully ..... 2.35 ayr rasaman 80 crimson knot 78 diman waters 75 rasaman is in form and ran a good time lto and should run a good race today off just a few pounds higher ,crimson knot is probably marginally better over 5f but easily stays 6f on a good day .....possesses plenty of speed and could be too strong for these if staying of a nice mark rasaman 5pts win 5/1 betvic crimson waters 5pts saver 9/1 paddy power

[BettingSystems]

I'm NOT a tipster but the systems have been quiet. 4 hours of studying... Having a wee dabble today. Systems been too quiet so I've spent ages looking at form, something I'm not good at I hasten to add 15:05 Ayr - Oddysey Despite being backed and winning well here last week, she doesnt carry a penalty (was an apprentice race) and looks to hold a good chance here. Her win was her first exposure to a soft 7f and it looked much more to her liking than previous conditions faced. Well-in, unexposed, conditions to suit, CD form 3 pt WIN @ 11/4 (NAP) 15:35 Ayr - King Of Eden Won well LTO. Perhaps still a couple of pounds well-in on best form and the trainer does well this time of year with LTO winners. I said to myself only bet this if the ground doesnt go soft. Going stick at Ayr saying 8.2 so If I stick to my rule I don't bet but its looking a fair price at 5/1 currently so I'm bending the rules. If it goes 6/1 before 3pm I'm having 0.5pt E/W. If it goes within the top 2 in the betting (is fancied?) then I'm having 1pt @ SP. Weird. 15:45 Southwell - UNCLE BRIT A horse with a bit of history. Originally with Sir Mark Prescott, won for him over course and distance as a 3yo off a mark of 61 and never showed much afterwards. Switched to J M Jefferson, been tried over jumps 4 times and on the flat (turf) 4 times too. Most recently not staying over 10f on the soft ground at Ayr and before that giving a good showing against higher rated horses in a claimer, again though, not staying 10f on soft ground. Step back in trip could suit him, has won over CD (albeit some time ago) and runs here off 51. For me, If ever this is going to win, its today. Paul Hanagan looks a good jockey booking as icing on the cake. 2pt E/W @ 13/2 SKYBET ( got 7/1 :) ) 16:15 Southwell - Punching I didn't expect the odds to be so big so I'm having a dabble on the basis of value. Although 8yo now, 14/1 is too big considering his course and distance record, winning off a mark of 68+ on several occasions. Off 66 today he has an improving short priced favourite to take on but I'm sure he and Hayley Turner can give us a good run. 0.5pts E/W SP 16:35 Ayr - 2 in 1 race! Danube River Not done well in recent races but the yard is having some winners after a barron spell. It appears a couple of pound well-in on a 10f Pontefract run on heavy ground in May. Fallon booked, he does fantastic here and the trainers record and the pair combined is good too. 1 pt E/W @ 13/2 Paddy Power Retreat Content Won off 61 / 2nd off 65 at this course this time last year. Off 58 today Small e/w 0.5pt E/W @ 9/1 Bet365 17:15 Southwell - Carnac Out of sorts last Tuesday when finishing 5th to todays short priced favourite Omid. Omid won well so we're taking a chance Carnac can produce some of the form that made him a 2/1F the day and perhaps with Omid now carrying a penalty we could sneek it. 0.5pts E/W SP 19:00 Wolves - Mother Jones Goes well here and favoured at these weights. Stablemate is the biggest threat so will have a saver bet on Aquasulis 2pt win 3/1 Bet365 Mother Jones 1pt Aquasulis 9/4 Paddy Power 19:30 Wolves - Stevie Gee The price of 14/1 is either crazy or I'm missing something. Excuses CAN be made for his last place finish LTO in May. He was drawn 11 of 11 at Chester(!) and it was fast ground that day. Turf never has been his best sphere. Before that in January (running for Ian Williams) he won a claiming race beating Desert Strike who won a handicap a few days later off 75 before gaining a 2nd off 79. Inconsistent, getting older but certainly a good value price off a mark of 70. 1pt E/W 14/1 Summary Fairly active day but nothing for a while and then a break for dinner at 5:20. I think several of the picks are interesting if nothing else and I've hunted for value in my bets and hope to atleast break even.