Flat Racing Tuesday 19th

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Royal Ascot Tuesday 2.30 Queen Anne Stakes – Excelebration w/o Frankel 4pts win @ 11/10 William Hill Even though I don’t mind getting involved with odds on shots, Frankel is too short for my liking. I fully expect him to win comfortably but I think Excelebration is almost a certainty to follow him home again. In any other time, Excelebration in his own right would have been a champion miler but he has had the misfortune of being around the same time as Frankel. Since his debut he has had 10 career starts and won 6 of them. The other 4 have all been defeats to Frankel. He himself is a grade 1 winner and would have been a multiple grade 1 winner had it not been for Frankel. He is now with Aiden O’Brien and I think he has improved a little for the switch to his stable but unfortunately Frankel has also strengthened up this year as well. Windsor Palace will be the pacemaker for Excelebration here and if he does his job properly, Excelebration might be able to get a little closer than he did in the Lockinge. In the Lockinge Windsor Palace did not do his job and it was pretty pointless him being in the race. He just let Bullet Train have an easy lead in front with Frankel following when he should have been up there trying to make life a little more difficult for both Bullet Train and Frankel. Strong Suit looks the biggest threat to 2^nd place but I feel he is a better horse at 7f and probably doesn’t have the class of the top 2 at a mile. There are plenty of other good horses in the race but none I think that can trouble Frankel or Excelebration. Third place in the race could go to anything but I feel the top 2 places are pretty much assured if every horse gives its true running. 3.05 King’s Stand – Wizz Kid 3pts win @ 6/1 Ladbrokes Keeping the faith here with Wizz Kid who is in my ten to follow. He was a comfortable winner last time out in his preparation for this race and looks to have a live chance in this. He is drawn high which could be an advantage if the rain comes but there looks to be plenty of pace middle to high which will suit Wizz Kid who likes to be held up. When looking at this race, you tend to want a horse that can stay 6f and that comes into the race in good form. Although Wizz Kid has never won at 6f, he ran a good race at Ascot over 6f to finish 2^nd to Deacon Blues last year. He is only a 4 year old and looks to be progressing nicely into a top class sprinter. He is twice a grade 2 winner but looks up to winning in group 1 class. Any more rain would probably aid his chance in this whereas it would hinder the chances of his main market rival Bated Breath. Gerald Mosse has struck up a good partnership with Wizz Kid having rode him on his last 3 starts. Robert Collet is 1 from 4 runners at the track and I have no doubts this has been the main target since returning to action this year. The French trainers are very shrewd and their horses have to be respected when coming over for Royal Ascot. The International horses coming over have to be taken into consideration with Ortensia looking the biggest threat. He has won his last 3 starts with 2 of them coming over 6f. He comfortably beat Sole Power over in Dubai and will not mind the conditions. Bated Breath obviously has to be afforded maximum respect having broken the track record at Haydock last time out. I think he would want it a little faster. With Wizz Kid drawn in 15, I expect the likes of Masamah, Amour Propre, Hamish Mcgonagall and Tangerine Trees all to give him a good tow into the race. The only problem is that there could be a few hard luck stories in the race with such a big field and Wizz Kid could suffer as he likes to be held up and will require luck in running. 3.45 St James Palace – Dragon Pulse 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 BetFred This is a race that more often than not goes to the favourite but connections of Power have already said he is a better horse on quick ground. He might just be vulnerable on the ground tomorrow and the one I fancy to beat him is Dragon Pulse who almost beat him over 7f last year. He is now trained over in France but returned to action this year as good as ever when getting up close home to beat Dabirsim. His latest run in France can be ignored as it was a terribly messy race but his 2-year-old form gives him every chance. He got the better or Parish Hall last year who Jim Bolger thinks the world of and like I have already said he almost got up to beat Power in the National Stakes at the Curragh. He has already taken the scalp of Dabirsim this year and seemed to relish the step up to a mile. The good to soft ground will be perfect for Dragon Pulse and I like the fact Fran Berry has been booked for the ride. He rode him on his last 3 starts of last season and clearly gets on well with the horse. Power looks the main danger to my selection as he has already beaten him and won the Irish 2000 Guineas last time out. He comes from the mighty Aiden O’Brien stable and he is well drawn here in 5. The other one I thought could pose a threat in this is the French trained Lucayan who is improving with every run. He won that messy race at Longchamp where Dragon Pulse finished down the field. I don’t think he can be underestimated here with conditions ideal. The only stumbling block for him could be his wide draw. 4.25 Coventry Stakes – Cristoforo Colombo 3pts win @ 5/1 Bet365 Not much to go on here with all of the runners only having had a few races but there are potentially some top class horses in this line up and Cristoforo Colombo could be one of them. There has been plenty of money for this one in the last week, which is interesting as he comes from last years winning connections. He looks the stables first string on jockey bookings. He was quite weak in the betting on debut but won in good style. It’s possible connections didn’t have him ready for his debut, which is why he was weak in the betting. That would make his debut run even more impressive and I would expect him to come on a bundle for the run. Anything Hannon throws at this race has to be respected and Sir Princealot looks the main hope with Richard Hughes taking the ride. He has looked impressive in both starts so far and looks a big danger to my selection. The favourite also has to be respected having won all 3 races. Dawn Approach got the better of Mister Marc last time out whose form was given a boost yesterday by Kimberella winning at Doncaster. The other one that is of huge interest is Englishman who won comfortably on debut. The form of that race has been given several boosts by the placed horses. I still have a doubt over the Charlie Hills stable though. This has been a good race for fancied runners in the last 10 years so I am happy to concentrate on the horses near the top of the market. They are all potentially top class but I just prefer the O’Brien horse for which there has been plenty of money for in the last week. 5.00 Ascot Stakes Al Khawaneej 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Paddy Power Going to take a chance on this horse who looks to be progressing nicely having won his last 3 starts and looking better the more he is stepped up in trip. He isn’t bred to get the trips he has been winning at but I think the pure size of this animal means staying trips are perfect for him. When you seen this horse in a race he dwarfs every other horse and he probably has an unfair advantage due to his size as his lungs will be huge. That being said he has looked very good in winning his last 3 starts. He started off by winning a handicap at Kempton off 65 and he is now rated 90. He is unexposed over staying trips and who knows how good he can be. Jamie Spencer is back on board after missing out on the ride last time out at Goodwood. The David Simcock yard is in good form at the moment and he has a good record at Ascot. His last 2 wins haven’t been spectacular but have been comfortable enough which has prevented any over reaction from the handicapper. I think there should be much more to come from this bull of a horse. This does however look very competitive and the jumps trainers that send horses over for this race have to be respected. Nicky Henderson won this last year with Veiled and he has back off a 6lb higher mark. He won easily last year though and could make a bold bid to follow up. One of greater interest for me is the Willie Mullins trained Simenon. He has to be afforded maximum respect being sent over by Mullins. Al Khawaneej is only a 4 year old but is improving with every race. This race may be a step too far at this stage of his career but he is well worth his place in the line up. He looks certain to get the trip and with the trainer in good form, I am hopeful of a good showing from him.

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Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 19th 3.05 Ascot KING'S STAND STAKES ORTENSIA 4pts win @ 11/2 (Skybet) I'm fully exposed on this 7yo Australian mare since the odds came out for this race (so I have got something better than the best odds available at the moment) but of course I've been pretty concerned about the ground since last week (would have never guessed it was gonna be a problem but of course if it would turn to be softer than good to soft it will). If the ground stays good to soft or drier I can see who can beat this sprinter. She was sent to Paul Messara by her owners to see if there was a chance to get a Group 1 win (she was already a multiple Group 2 winner, was disqualified after a success in Group 1 in 2010 and had finished 3rd in a Group 1 won by Black Caviar at the end of 2010 and third again in another Group 1 in February 2011). Connections were no more than hopeful since the mare had been looking not in her best form since that third place in February but everything quickly changed when moved to her new yard just one year ago and she first bolted up in a Listed over 6f in November and two weeks later easily won her first Group 1 (again over 6f) always in Australia and after a little break she bolted up in Dubai winning the Al Quoz Sprint coming from last to first in the last 2f and not in a straight line (she had to switch wide 300 yards out). She had been mainly good over 6f and 7f and was travelling far from home for the first time so had more than something to prove that day but she proved her effectiveness over the minimum trip and she confirmed to be a top class sprinter still able to improve at the age of 7 race after race. Hopefully the ground won't be too testing (as it seems the case) and the stiff 5f of Ascot and the leaders going quick for sure in the first 3f should set the perfect race for Ortensia and with both Bated Breath and Sole Power badly in need of top of the ground (that won't be the case here for sure) the main danger remains only Wizz Kid imho who is in very good form, will love the ground and ran very well here at Ascot on Champions' Day in the Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 2) when second (beaten 1.5L by Deacon Blues) over 6f on a quicker surface that surely didn't help her chances. If Ortensia doesn't handle the ground the French filly is my favourite but she has something to prove too since she never won a Group 1 finishing 5th both in the Nunthorpe at York and in the Abbaye at Longchamp last year and her last win at Chantilly was in a quite poor Group 2 (Eton Rifles was 4th and very close to the 2nd and the same horse went on to lose finishing 4th in a Listed at Salisbury yesterday and surely the Stuart Williams-trained 7yo isn't a Group 1 sprinter but just a Listed winner and was giving 3lb to Wizz Kid in that race at Chantilly two weeks ago). Can't see any other runners being ready to win at this level on this ground but of course it's Royal Ascot and anything can happen with plenty of good sprinters like Prohibit and Margot Did and the Hong Kong's Little Bridge and Joy And Fun who could go close if the 4 market leaders wouldn't be at their best.