Betting on live football at half-time

[MPLouis]

I watch a lot of live football and bet on games in-play. In the current Euro 2012 European Championships I have been trying out a new strategy of doing some half-time predictions - on the result and sometimes on corners. Then I have looked at the odds with a view to backing them if they are well over evens (2.0) for something that I think is more likely than odd. Example from tonight, Friday 15th June - Sweden v England Half time: 0-1 My half time prediction: 1-2 Odds on 'Over 2.5' goals: 2.25 - good value based on my prediction Final score: 2-3 Over 2.5 goals bet won at 2.25 (I didn't back this one ... but this is a strategy that I am moving towards, as it appears to pay off quite well) Just wondered if anyone else does something similar?

[pg_yid]

Re: Betting on live football at half-time I find live betting to be extremely difficult. Only rarely do I go for it. In the France vs Ukraine game, I did have a go. I had decided before the game that 2.5 was good odds for overs, but hadn't bet because the price had dropped. I got home from work to see that the game had been suspended due to the thunderstorm. The in-play market was still open, and Stan James had overs @ 3.0. It was available to lay on Betfair @ 2.8, so I did an arb and made a small profit. When the game started the pitch didn't seem too bad, so I had another go at the overs with Stan James. Considering only 4 minutes had gone, and the pitch was not having a massive influence on the game, I thought 3.0 was good value. As it turned out the bet lost, but I was happy with the value judging by the way the game went. It could easily have gone over 2.5 and I think they had overestimated the factor of the rain on the pitch. That is probably one of my more successful forays into in-play betting...and the bet still lost! You somehow have to make an estimate of probability based not only on the current game but also on past results etc. I find it hard to judge the relevant weightings of these short-term and long-term factors. I'd be interested to see how you get on with this though, whether you're really placing the bets on just paper-trailing it.