Betting on live football at half-time

[MPLouis]

I watch a lot of live football and bet on games in-play. In the current Euro 2012 European Championships I have been trying out a new strategy of doing some half-time predictions - on the result and sometimes on corners. Then I have looked at the odds with a view to backing them if they are well over evens (2.0) for something that I think is more likely than odd. Example from tonight, Friday 15th June - Sweden v England Half time: 0-1 My half time prediction: 1-2 Odds on 'Over 2.5' goals: 2.25 - good value based on my prediction Final score: 2-3 Over 2.5 goals bet won at 2.25 (I didn't back this one ... but this is a strategy that I am moving towards, as it appears to pay off quite well) Just wondered if anyone else does something similar?

[pg_yid]

Re: Betting on live football at half-time I find live betting to be extremely difficult. Only rarely do I go for it. In the France vs Ukraine game, I did have a go. I had decided before the game that 2.5 was good odds for overs, but hadn't bet because the price had dropped. I got home from work to see that the game had been suspended due to the thunderstorm. The in-play market was still open, and Stan James had overs @ 3.0. It was available to lay on Betfair @ 2.8, so I did an arb and made a small profit. When the game started the pitch didn't seem too bad, so I had another go at the overs with Stan James. Considering only 4 minutes had gone, and the pitch was not having a massive influence on the game, I thought 3.0 was good value. As it turned out the bet lost, but I was happy with the value judging by the way the game went. It could easily have gone over 2.5 and I think they had overestimated the factor of the rain on the pitch. That is probably one of my more successful forays into in-play betting...and the bet still lost! You somehow have to make an estimate of probability based not only on the current game but also on past results etc. I find it hard to judge the relevant weightings of these short-term and long-term factors. I'd be interested to see how you get on with this though, whether you're really placing the bets on just paper-trailing it.

[MPLouis]

Re: Betting on live football at half-time

I find live betting to be extremely difficult. Only rarely do I go for it. In the France vs Ukraine game, I did have a go. I had decided before the game that 2.5 was good odds for overs, but hadn't bet because the price had dropped. I got home from work to see that the game had been suspended due to the thunderstorm. The in-play market was still open, and Stan James had overs @ 3.0. It was available to lay on Betfair @ 2.8, so I did an arb and made a small profit. When the game started the pitch didn't seem too bad, so I had another go at the overs with Stan James. Considering only 4 minutes had gone, and the pitch was not having a massive influence on the game, I thought 3.0 was good value. As it turned out the bet lost, but I was happy with the value judging by the way the game went. It could easily have gone over 2.5 and I think they had overestimated the factor of the rain on the pitch. That is probably one of my more successful forays into in-play betting...and the bet still lost! You somehow have to make an estimate of probability based not only on the current game but also on past results etc. I find it hard to judge the relevant weightings of these short-term and long-term factors. I'd be interested to see how you get on with this though, whether you're really placing the bets on just paper-trailing it.

Thanks for the reply pg. I remember someone else mentioned using a strategy of betting at half-time, but it obviously wasn't you! I spend a lot of time betting in-play and agree it's difficult. I find it hard to separate 'gambling' from 'betting' in-play. It's easy to get impatient or greedy. It's hard to keep your discipline. And it's all made even harder if (as often happens) you are following more than one live game. Half-time should make things easier though. If you know what's at stake in the game (relegation/promotion/qualification etc) and have had the opportunity to watch the first half it should make things easier. I like the idea of having a few minutes to make a prediction at half time and then look at the odds to see where there might be any value. For example, if it's 0-0 at half-time, you predict a final score of 2-0, and 'over 1.5' goals is priced at odds of 2.5. I'm particularly interested in hearing from anyone else who bets on live games using half predictions like this.

[Matthew]

Re: Betting on live football at half-time I do this when I can in the english leagues. I pull all the stats from the match (shots (% on target), corners, possession) and try to find complete mismatches despite their being no goals in the game. The assumption being that the second half will go like the first did. It works pretty well and you can get some chunky odds. It can be especially lucrative when you back a team who are losing but the stats suggest are very unlikely to be in such a position.