Jump Racing - Thursday 14th of June

[Edberg]

7.40 Hereford SADLER'S STAR 4pts to win @ 8/1 bog (Paddy Power) Sadler's Star is a 9yo German-bred gelding trained by Michael Blake. He was a decent horse on the flat (an impressive win as a 3yo and 12th in the 2006 German Derby) but didn't fire moved to UK under Brendan Powell and Alan King. Still he has had a decent career over hurdles (2 wins, 5 seconds and 4 thirds in 25 starts) but is a bit better over fences (2 wins, 1 second and 3 thirds in 11 starts) and all his best results came in the last 2 years i.e. since he moved to Michael Blake's yard (had won just a selling stakes over hurdles for Alan King on his last start before joining Michael Blake). Started his career over fences in May 2011 and has finished out of the top 4 just twice in 11 starts. His last two wins came last October with Tom Cannon in his saddle (the only two races the two partnered together) and both were very impressive as he bolted up at Fontwell in a class 5 handicap over 2m6f (good ground) off 93 and 12 days later at Wincanton in a class 4 handicap over 2m5f (good to firm) off 101 (the second Petito was beaten 10L and Petito is a good yardstick since he won twice since (latest 3 days ago off a 3lb higher mark) and finished thrice second, while the third of that race was The Darling Boy who has collected 2 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third in his next/last 5 starts since that race). He was kept very busy and ran twice more in October finishing 4th and 3rd off his new mark of 108 and 110 and after a 7-month break came back with a poor effort back over hurdles (9th of 17 last April at Wincanton) but that run was needed and his next/last effort was way better, back over fences at Ffos Las on his favourite good to firm ground over 2m5f in a class 4 handicap racing off a mark of 108. He finished that race 4th of 6 but just 6L behind the winner and was always travelling well (mainly 3rd racing wide next to the leaders) made headway 4 out and took the lead between 3 and 2 out, was still leading 3f out but didn't last home when the first two passed him before the last fence and was beaten also for the third in the run-in. The horse has been dropped 1lb since that race (107 today) and Tom Cannon is back on board today and he takes 3lb more off which makes his mark very interesting especially considering the special feeling the young conditional jockey has had with Sadler's Star (not only they won two nice races but they really did it in style last October). The ground is good to firm/good in places at the moment and even with a bit rain won't change that much and this is important as he needs a sound surface. Also the drop back in trip should help as he didn't see the last couple of furlongs that well last time out. The opposition isn't that strong as the two market leaders are not so well handicapped imho. Forty Five represents a top connection (JP McManus-Jonjo O'Neill-AP McCoy) and has never been out of the top 3 in the last 5 starts over fences (Nov 2011-Feb 2012 racing off 108-112) but is back after a 4-month break, has to carry the top-weight here and is still maiden over fences after 13 starts. Overlaw is 6lb higher than his last winning mark (27 Mar, Hereford, 2m, good, class 5 handicap off 93) and his previous win over C&D in March 2010 was in a very poor race off a mark of 72 and on soft ground. Racing off similar marks in the high 90s proved beyond Overlaw's abilities many times as his 4 wins came off 72, 83, 89 and 9 and off higher marks he has never been better than third but well beaten (last time out racing off 99 he finished 3rd but 10.5L behind the winner and last May he was sent-off as the 7/4 favourite in a 5-runner class 4 handicap where he was racing off 95 and finished 3rd but beaten 52L (had won two weeks earlier over the same C&D at Uttoxeter over 2m off a 6lb lower mark).

[Edberg]

Re: Jump Racing - Thursday 14th of June I forgot to add Michael Blake's stable being in super form at the moment as they had just two runners in June and both won in very good style, one of them with Tom Cannon on board won by 12L at Fontwell last week.