Chris' Racing Thread

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Northern Dancer Stakes Woodbine - Wigmore Hall 2.5pts win @ 7/2 BetFred Couldn't help myself. This horse won this race last year and looks to have every chance of following up again. He almost got caught last year by Al Khali who is the actual favourite for tonight's race but I don't see why WH can't hold him off again. I don't think his run in the Arlington Million was that bad and he didn't really get the clearest of runs in what was a steadily run race won easily by the front runner. Hayley Turner rode him that day but Jamie Spencer is back on board tonight which is a positive and he is in great form at the moment. He is a horse suited by a fast pace as he likes to be held up so hopefully they will go some sort of pace tonight. The favourite Al Khali wants a similar type of race so expect both horses to be finishing fast. Woodbine is set up for fast closers so fingers crossed he can do the business.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Woodbine Mile - Dance and Dance 1.5pts win @ 12/1 BetVictor (Sorry the wigmore hall bet was betvictor as well not betfred) Cityscape should really win this race if showing his best form but I don't want to be backing him at the price. He is a proven globetrotter but this will be his first time over at Woodbine and he has only ever had a couple of runs on truly fast turf which is enough to put me off. The ground at Woodbine is firm which may not suit Cityscape. The home favourite Wise Dan won so easily last time out but the British challengers looks pretty strong. It's hard to weigh up his form but he looks to have every chance. The horse I have had a little bet on though is Dance and Dance, who will have been trained with this race in mind after an unlucky time of it last year. He was travelling much the best in this race last year but just couldn't get a run. Once getting out, he finished well but it was too late. Interestingly Ed Vaughn has chosen to go with a local jockey and not Jamie Spencer even though he is at Woodbine. I don't think he wants a repeat of last year and he probably feels he has the horse in similar kind of form. We know he will act at the track and we know he handles the ground. He has the lasix on for the first time which sometimes improves horses over in North America. He is not the most likely winner but it wouldn't surprise me if he went close. He likes to be ridden patiently so will require luck in running. It's very likely Cityscape will be front rank early on and he might just set it up for my selection.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 2.50 Brighton Ermyn Flyer 2pts win @ 8/1 PaddyPower Pat Phelan is in good form at the moment with his last 2 runners both winning and this horse looks to have a decent chance here. This horses only career win from 13 starts came over CD back in April this year when she won comfortably off a 2lb lower mark by 4 lengths. The ground conditions were very different that day however and she is yet to prove herself on fast ground, as she has never encountered it in the past. She is by Sakhee, who himself handled fast ground so I would hope she would be able to handle it. If she does act on the ground then I would hope for a good run from her. Jemma Marshall has ridden her on most of her starts so she clearly gets on well with the horse. She is 1 from 1 at the track so a return here might just do the trick.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Ermyn Flyer did well to finish 2nd but was no match for the very easy winner who is clearly well handicapped at the moment. Just one for Wolves which I quite fancy. 5.00 Wolves Vhujon 1pt EW @ 9/1 PP Hard to be too confident about this horse as he is very in and out but he returned to form last time out over CD where he looked unlucky to finish back in 4th. He would have got much closer with a clearer run but is obviously prone to finding trouble given the way he is ridden. That was a good effort after plenty of poor ones so he could be ready to strike again, as he is 5lbs lower than his last winning mark which came in January this year. They should go a good clip in this race which will suit my selection but whether he turns up in the same mood or not is debatable. He is more than capable of getting involved here but will go each way as he doesn't win too often.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 5.00 Yarmouth Expert Fighter 2pts win @ 8/1 SkyBet Willing to forgive this horses effort at York as he raced prominently helping to set a strong pace and eventually tired up pretty badly to finish down the field. Most of the horses that filled the first 4 or 5 places were all held up off the pace so it is likely Expert Fighter went off too quick. This looks less competitive but there are still a few in here that look progressive. I would include Expert Fighter who can show his true colours here given a more conservative ride. Godolphin continue in good form and Saeed Bin Suroor has a good record at Yarmouth. The obvious one is Willie Wag Tail who goes for Ed Walker who has an unbelievable strike rate at the track. The form of the York race where he looked very unlucky has worked out very well with both Nanton and Tropical Beat running crackers next time up. That was the same race Expert Fighter ran in, and I wouldn't be surprised if they were a lot closer at the finish in this race.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread I had a good look at the Clive Brittain horse last night. Gutted I went off him and went for the Godolphin horse instead. Looking at the Kerry National for tomorrow... Bets - 70 Wins - 16 Staked - 208pts Returned - 197.16pts Profit -10.84pts

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 4.05 Listowel Kerry National - Casey Top 2pts EW @ 10/1 Boylesports This is a huge ask for this horse to win here off top weight but I think he holds an excellent chance of getting involved. He is only a 2nd season chaser but has improved massively this year in his 2 runs. First time out this year he bolted up against some classy opposition including the likes of Tranquil Sea who finished 2nd in the race. Next time out Galway he pulled clear of a very good field but found Bob Lingo too good on the day. That horse is clearly back to his best as he followed up next time out so the form of that race looks solid. He fits plenty of the trends for the race and he looks to have an excellent chance with Paul Townend taking the ride.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 3.15 Yarmouth Emirates Queen 2.5pts EW @ 5/1 Bet365 I have had decent sized bet on this horse tomorrow. Timepiece clearly sets the standard here and could take this race quite easily but Yarmouth for me is a bit of a favourites graveyard. Since the first running of this race back in 1993, the clear favourite has only won this race twice with those wins coming back in 2005 and 1997. I do think Timepiece is the most probable winner of this race but I fancy taking her on with the talented Emirates Queen. This horse disappointed last time out on soft ground at Salisbury but before that she had improved with every run and looked like a really progressive type. She only narrowly got beat at York by Barefoot Lady, pulling 5 lengths clear of the 3rd horse. Gathering who finished 3rd that day has since narrowly been beaten into 3rd in a group 3 race and Barefoot Lady won a big race in Canada over the weekend. I would put Emirates Queen's run at Salisbury as a blip and I would excuse her that run due to the ground. Hopefully she can resume her progress here and take the notable scalp of Timepiece. Luca Cumani continues in good form as does Kieron Fallon. I don't like using the phrase bet to nothing but I would like to think Emirates Queen could at least make the frame here.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 4.20 Yarmouth Barwick 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Ladbrokes Barwick showed last time out at Sandown that he continues in good form and a return to this track could bring about another win. His record here reads 1-1-3 with both wins coming over CD. His 3rd was a fast finishing effort over 7f behind a decent horse in Green Howard. He races off a mark of 80 here with his highest ever winning mark being 76. His 3rd place at this track did come off this mark so I feel he can definitely be competitive off 80. There are few in this race that have plenty to prove and a couple that come into the race in cracking form. Mark Tompkins runners always seem to show their best form at this track and he is the top trainer here. Barwick should give a good account here at a track that he clearly thrives at.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Oh dear Emirates Queen looks rather moody

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Christ what a brutal day. Backed horses in races won by a 125/1 shot and a 33/1 shot. Barwick just wasn't good enough. Thank god I am going to Rhodes for 12 days tomorrow. Recharge the batteries!

[HeresTheKey]

Rhodes is beautifull-have a nice time

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread

Rhodes is beautifull-have a nice time

Cheers mate, it certainly looks nice and everyone seems to have only good things to say about the place.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 4.40 Ayr Hillview Boy 2pts win @ 12/1 Ladbrokes I need something to keep me up till 2am so thought I would post a few bets before we set off in the morning. This is a cracking little race in which their are 2 horses from my favourite trainer David Barron. I don't think they can win though and will take them on with the Jim Goldie trained Hillview Boy. Muffin Mcleay comes here after a break but won well last time out but looks a little high in the weights in what is a very competitive race. He is only a 4 year old though so could be open to more improvement, but to win this off an 8lb higher mark is a tough ask. His other runner Suits Me, will more than likely try and make the running. He has made the frame several times this year off higher marks so it isn't out of the question here but there is another possible front runner in Circumvent in the field which means he won't get it his all way in front. I believe these two will set it up for something coming from off the pace. Scrapper Smith is certainly interesting after a cracking run at Chester in listed company. He won this race last year just getting the better of Las Verglas Star. Both of them should be in the mix but the one I like is Hillview Boy. He races off 88 in this race which is his lowest mark since 2009. He finds it hard to win but everything looks in place for a good run. He goes well on soft ground and has run well on both career starts over CD. He will need a strong pace to be seen to his best but he should get that with a couple of front runners in the field. Daniel Tudhope is in much better form now and his confidence should be much higher after his recent wins on Set the Trend and Doc Hay in good races. This is a pretty open handicap in which several could be given a chance but if Hillview Boy gets a good pace to run at, then he could be finishing best of all off what is a sliding handicap mark.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread 6.00 Pontefract Eastward Ho 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 BetVictor Eastward Ho was in fine form back in June this year winning twice at over a mile at Ripon and Doncaster. He followed that with a couple of decent efforts before disappointing a little in a good race over CD in August. He is currently rated 69 but I feel all of his recent form suggests he is still a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. I say this because his win at Doncaster looks quite impressive now as both Lockantanks and Anderiego won their next 2 races after it. Lockantanks won off 78 and 84 but has struggled since returning to the all weather. Anderiego won his next 2 starts off 80 and 87 and almost won again last time out at Doncaster off a mark of 92. Even in my selections latest run over CD, the 6 horses that finished ahead of him are all rated in the 80's. He finished 4 lengths behind them but I feel a lot of races in a short period of time may have taken the edge off him. He has had 37 days off the track so he should come into this pretty fresh. His trainer was interviewed today and he felt this horse would run a good race, as did his jockey Eddie Ahern. He is a front runner which could be the best place to be in a field of 17. He should hopefully stay clear of any trouble and if he can resume his progress, he should be able to go very close in this off a mark of 69.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Cambridgeshire - Mijhaar 5pts win (max bet) @ 16/1 Hopefully get some reasoning up in the next few days

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Sorry that bet was with boylesports. i genuinely feel Mijhaar is a group horse in a handicap here and this trip on soft ground will be right up his street. Think the hood will be the making of him as he has settled much better in his 2 races since wearing it. He is still lightly raced and I very much doubt we have seen the best of him yet.

[cpo]

Re: Chris' Racing Thread Haven't got his preferred soft ground but Mijhaar should run a big race nonetheless. Few other bets for tmrw but haven't for time for any write ups I'm afraid as still in rhodes.1.55 Newmarket al waab 1.5pts EW @ 11/2 hills2.25 Newmarket Maureen 4pts win @ 5/2 bet3654.50 Newmarket lutine bell 1pt EW @ 14/1 paddypower5.25 Newmarket marshgate lane 3pts win @ 11/2 ladbrokes Apologies as these are no use to anyone but I'm recording every bet so in they go