Flat Racing - Thursday 7th June

[Bathtime For Rupert]

4.40 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Saint Helena @ 11/1 (Bet365) I really believe that Harry Dunlop's filly here is too big a price and therefore merits a solid bet in this handicap over just short of 1m6f. This is her first time trying this trip but she's a winner over 1m4f and shaped as if she'll get home without issue when running in a 2m handicap at Kempton recently. She won off a mark of 79 at Ffos Las in July and although her all-weather mark is lower (and she hasn't won a handicap on this surface to date), I'm sure a mark of 73 is not beyond her now she returns to Wolverhampton. She's only run her once, when winning her maiden, and her style is more suited to here than Lingfield, where she ran last time out. She's not the quickest and will relish the return to a more galloping track where the races don't turn into a sprint quite so much - because that isn't her game. Her three runs this season have been respectable up against some decent company, and has had excuses. She just got tired late on at Kempton over 1m4f on her seasonal debut. She finished 4th but those ahead of her are fairly decent animals - the winner ran a good 3rd off 7lbs higher yesterday, the runner-up has gone well enough off marks in the mid-80s since, and the third is a decent yardstick in those type of events. She will have come on for that run and although the losing margin of just over 14l doesn't look so clever when upped to 2 miles there next time, it wasn't as bad a run as it appears. Firstly, she travelled well through the race but found no run whatsoever at a crucial part of the race at the top of the straight. David Probert had to sit and suffer whilst the leaders quickened on. Being a relatively one-paced type, this halt in momentum cost her any chance and although she plugged on into 4th, she couldn't recover. Although she may not have won or anything like that, the front two (clear) are good types who are all rated in the 80s. The winner ran in a Group 3 next time, and the runner-up is a generally progressive stayer. The 3rd ran well in 3rd in a decent Grade 2 at Haydock next time out and my selection may well have been ahead of that one granted a clear run. That was a 0-95 so the fact she was running a good race until meeting trouble is promising and her run back into a 0-80 at Lingfield last time was sound enough. Like I said, the way races pan out there isn't always ideal but she kept on at the one pace into a 3 3/4l 5th. The winner won again since and the runner-up ran well enough upped in grade next time so there is some substance to it. Dropped a further pound today and back at a track where she's 1-1 will really help and there are question marks about quite a few of these. I don't think it's quite so solid as the races she's been competing in and she's well drawn in stall 2. Luke Morris is back on board which is no bad thing and I'm confident of a big run from her. She was 1l ahead of Mataaleb on her seasonal return, in receipt of 5lbs, so I'm not sure a 3lb swing in the weights (considering my selection should have come on for that) should result in that horse being half the price of mine here. She's overpriced and she should run her usual solid race - I just feel conditions are more suitable here today granted she avoids trouble in running. 5.20 Lingfield - 2pts win Song Of Joy @ 15/2 (Bet365) Although Paul D'Arcy's filly hasn't won a race yet from seven starts, this step up in trip looks likely to suit on the back of three good efforts in races since going handicapping on the all-weather. She showed little in three maidens but hasn't been beaten further than 3 3/4l in 3 all-weather handicaps this season and she's been staying on to good effect on each of these. Each time she's looked like further would be ideal - including last time when she ran over the extended 9f at Wolverhampton. She was under pressure for quite a while but the way she responded suggests that she would relish even further and the step up to 1m4f here should prove ideal for her. I'm pretty sure she'll get home alright at a track like this given the way she saw out 2f (or so) shorter at Wolverhampton. She's only 3lbs higher than when a 1/2l runner-up at Kempton two starts ago when she had a wide draw, and considering I anticipate some more improvement for the trip, she's probably fairly treated here off top-weight. Adam Kirby has got on well with the horse on her two most recent runs and he goes to Lingfield for this one ride today and fingers crossed it can be worthwhile. The favourite's recent 2nd didn't come in a good race to say the least so can be taken on and I'm quite surprised Song Of Joy is so big in the betting. I'd have her down as an 11/2 or 6/1 shot so she's worthy of a bet at 15/2 but won't be going overboard considering she does have a wide draw to overcome. If she does indeed get home, she should go close in a weak race. 9.00 Sandown - 1pt win Significant Move @ 14/1 (Bet365) Debated whether to play this one considering this is his first outing of the season and he seemed to need it last term, but a 1pt bet isn't going to break the bank and if Stuart Kittow has him ready, it could pay nicely. He's a horse who is typically consistent and went into my notebook when an extremely unfortunate 2l 6th here almost one year ago to the day. He was badly hampered in the run and probably would have won on that occasion given a bit of luck. That was only off 4lbs lower in a very competitive heat and he did manage to win at Warwick two starts later in the season off 77. He is a soft-ground winner but I don't think the combination of 1m4f and soft ground at Goodwood helped on his final two runs of 2011. It probably just stretched him on the surface and the losing margin was vastly exaggerated on the latter of those efforts. Ian Mongan reported he hung left throughout, and he raced a little isolated up the centre of the track once they came across. He was beaten at the time but he got a bump and Mongan soon eased him down. He would have been beaten more like 15l rather than 45 had he been ridden out without the interference I think and that would have been a more realistic review of the run. The time before that saw a similarly distorted outcome. An 11l 5th doesn't look great but the winner dotted up by 8l and is now rated 20lbs superior so he was very well treated that day. Significant Move wasn't beaten far by the rest and it was a pretty decent bunch of runners. The return to 1m2f here will suit and obviously can go well at the course. The ground perhaps would be better if a little quicker but it won't be bottomless so long as we don't get a lot of rain so that shouldn't be a big concern either. It's the 260-day absence which is my main issue given he was 9th of 15 on his seasonal debut last time around. It wasn't a hideous run behind Modun (much higher rated now) but this isn't a bad race and he'll need to be fully tuned up to win it. There a couple of obvious dangers so I would need to see him fit to challenge and I can't guarantee that so I'm only going in small. However, he's no 14/1 shot if he's ready enough and fingers crossed he can run to his best on his first run back, because I would be all over him like a rash with a recent run under his belt.

[Edberg]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 7th June 3.00 Hamilton CAYMAN FOX 4pts to win @ 15/2 bog (Bet365 and Betvictor) Cayman Fox is a 7yo chestnut mare trained by Linda Perratt since August 2010 (James Moffatt and for a very short period Ann Duffield her former trainers). Bred and owned by R.R. Whitton the daughter of Cayman Kai is a sprinter who raced only once in 52 starts over 6f because she is usually a rocket out of the gates and likes to lead and make all but doesn't stand more than 5f. She's collected 3 wins and 11 seconds in her career and all her best results (included her last 2 wins) came in the last 21 months with the training of Linda Perratt. Cayman Fox won twice over today's C&D (and twice more finished close second); the first success came in a claimer in 2009 (still with Moffatt) and the second came in 2010 (27 Aug) in a class 5 handicap off 54 (an easy win). That week (end of August 2010) was her first one with her new trainer and the mare was in sparkling form since she had finished a very close second (beaten a neck, fading as usual in the final 50 yards) on her debut for Linda Perratt (over today's C&D) just 4 days before her aforementioned success over today's C&D (on grounds good to soft and good) and won again next time out (3 days later) at Newcastle (good to soft) where she had to race under a 6lb penalty (off 60) but did win in impressive style (beat with ease a 12-runner field with the second beaten 3.75L and recorded her career best RPR of 77). After that success the mare was upped 9lb (69) and ran well again at Musselburgh to finish 4th beaten by a very well handicapped Sandwith (today's favourite) who was carrying 17lb less than Cayman Fox that day (now Sandwith is rated 6lb higher than Cayman Fox so there is almost 2st pull since that race where Cayman Fox was sent off as the 13/8 favourite). In October 2010 Cayman Fox ran well again in a class 2 handicap racing off 74 (5lb out of the handicap plus 1lb overweight) where she led as usual until the last furlong to finish 5th of 10 facing horses rated 84-96. The 2011 season started very slowly (never better than 8th in her first 7 starts) but at the end of the season (September-October) Cayman Fox proved she still retained all her abilities and was a bit unlucky to finish thrice a close second in handicaps off 54-57-58. After a long winter break (as usual) the mare came back on track over today's C&D one month ago (class 6 handicap off 59) and ran as usual very well for the first 4f (led) before fading tamely in the last 200 yards once headed and finished only 11th of 14, beaten 7.25L by the winner. Twelve days later, again over 5f here at Hamilton (both races on good to soft), she ran way better fading again in the last 150 yards after a classic front-running race but her form was clearly improved compared to her seasonal debut and snatched a decent 5th, beaten just 2.75L in a 9-runner class 5 handicap (first time out was a class 6 handicap where she was the top weight). She ran both races off a mark of 59. One week later (25 May) Cayman Fox has run her third, and so far last, race of the season, this time at Musselburgh where she led for the first 1f but was soon challenged by Sandwith for the lead and weakened soon after the 2f pole to finish 9th of 10 well beaten by Sandwith who completed a quick double after a win here at Hamilton (always over 5f), over his favourite track (5 of his 7 wins came at Musselburgh). That wasn't a nice effort but things didn't go her way. So Sandwith comes here in sparkling form and will try to complete a hattrick but has been upped another 3lb while Cayman Fox has been dropped another 1lb and races off 57 today (3lb lower than her last winning mark and 1lb lower than her last close second at Musselburgh at the end of last October). In that last sprint at Musselburgh (13 days ago) the favourite was another today's runner: Here Now And Why (3/1 shot) with both Sandwith and Cayman Fox second favourites at 9/2 and the Ian Semple-trained 5yo gelding finished 3rd 1L behind Sandwith. Here Now And Why had finished second (beaten favourite again) also on his previous start (5f here at Hamilton in Cayman Fox's seasonal debut) but has one win at his name over today's C&D (last August) but racing off 49 (58 today as last time out). The gelding won his last race at Musselburgh (26 Oct 2011) off 54 beating Cayman Fox (second) 3/4L with the Linda Perratt-trained mare racing off 58 that day so my selection is 5lb better off today even if Here Now And Why wears a first-time visor that could be a big plus for him (still he seems not so well handicapped at the moment). Last time out Here Now And Why was travelling very well and even if he was a bit unlucky (short of room) in a key moment he never seemed able to threaten the winner Sandwith missing a sensible turn of foot inside the last furlong. So these three horses, not a case the top three in the weights in this (0-65) class 6 handicap, are pretty closely matched on their recent sprinting career but Cayman Fox is the one who is getting the better chance today off current weights and should be able to fire at her best after a couple of needed runs. The mare was probably supposed to run well already last time out (supported in the market while she was a 22/1 shot the time before) and that probably proves connections are seeing her coming back to her best and what underlines that more than anything else is the booking of today's jockey: P.J. McDonald. The 2007 Scottish Grand National winning jockey has been partnering Cayman Fox in all her best races in the last 2 seasons. He rode her on her last two successes in 2010 and on her three seconds and a decent 4th at the end of last season. Curious enough to notice that in 2010 the mare had run three bad races but she won twice in a row once connections booked McDonald to ride her and a similar story happened last year when Cayman Fox struggled to find her form for the first three months of the season and once McDonald put his legs on her she ran her best races (the only good ones last year). Surely the booking of today's jockey sounds a big plus (with all due respect to Julie Burke who rode her last twice) and the Scotsman has been riding very well of late (13 wins from 122 rides for him in this 2012 but a better record in the last period with 5 wins, 6 seconds and 6 thirds from his last 37 rides during the last fortnight) and he rode only once for Linda Perratt this year (Saxonette who finished a close second at Ayr one week ago in a sprint where she was a 25/1 shot) that has been the trainer's best result in the last three weeks. Lind Perratt saddled only winner so far this season, Rock Canyon who won here at Hamilton on the 11th of May, and that's surely not a big stat but things have to improve at one stage for sure (the Scottish trainer saddled 17 winners in 2011, 22 in 2010 and 32 in 2008) and why not today? It will be tough as usual to support Cayman Fox in the last furlong but hopefully she'll have more petrol in her tank this time around while I expect Sandwith to start fading a bit now that he is so high in the weight after his nice last two wins in a row. With all the usual doubts and difficult opponents to face (there are 8 more runners and a couple of them could go close) at current prices this has got to be a very confident bet for me today.