Best time to bet

[NoFear]

Best time to bet. Most of us have only a small window in which to place our bets before we get on with other things like our work or life in general. Working out the best time to place bets is something that really interests me as it can make a considerable difference to your season-end profits and yields. I tried to find a good thread on this but was unable to (went back to as far as 2009 only though). This is something worthy of discussion. IMHO the best time to bet is around 10:00-12:00 on race day. Not too early and not too late. Margins tend to get more competitive. The best book's margin from previous night is usually 120% whereas that usually tends to drop to 103% around noon on race day. Not to mention the added liquidity on exchanges. If you bet the night before you might get a lot of value but you risk losing your account. But if you leave it too late, the market would have moved considerably, sometimes in your favor, but most likely against you. Still contemplating this. Any thoughts?

[The Saint]

Re: Best time to bet

Best time to bet. Most of us have only a small window in which to place our bets before we get on with other things like our work or life in general. Working out the best time to place bets is something that really interests me as it can make a considerable difference to your season-end profits and yields. I tried to find a good thread on this but was unable to (went back to as far as 2009 only though). This is something worthy of discussion. IMHO the best time to bet is around 10:00-12:00 on race day. Not too early and not too late. Margins tend to get more competitive. The best book's margin from previous night is usually 120% whereas that usually tends to drop to 103% around noon on race day. Not to mention the added liquidity on exchanges. If you bet the night before you might get a lot of value but you risk losing your account. But if you leave it too late, the market would have moved considerably, sometimes in your favor, but most likely against you. Still contemplating this. Any thoughts?

To be honest NF, I think you have provided a very good synopsis of when to bet and the pitfalls of betting in the evening before racing... I'm still going to do it if I consider the price to be far enough out to justify the account being closed/limited but I am going to spread my bets around more carefully in order to stay under the radar... If there is no significant edge, then I tend to look at the markets from 830am and if my selection/s haven't moved I'll wait until all the Best Odds Guaranteed firms are up, check Betfair to see if they are significantly bigger, check the other runners in the market - if 2 or 3 are being gambled and mine isn't I may be rewarded with a point or 2 extra should I hang fire... If, I think my selection is likely to move or is a stand out price with a firm, I'll take it then.... I am aware this is probably making no sense at all!!!! :lol In general, I am lucky enough to be in a position where I can monitor the markets and prices fairly closely from 8 - 11am and usually the evening before too... I guess it depends on your situation, how much you are punting and how successful you are!! I'm talking in general terms of course - not to you directly NF. One thing I would stress though is that personally, I will sacrifice half a point to be on with a BOG firm... Although I didn't get a result today I was on at 9s Myboyalfie rather than an SP of 4s and because I backed Alpha Tourie BOG I was on at 11/2 despite taking the 3s. I thought 5/2 was a good acceptable!!! Again - just talking generally - I don't really understand why people bet with firms that aren't BOG unless you have a very definate idea that the price you are taking is significantly bigger than the SP is going to be.... Aaaaannnnndddd...... Stop typing!:lol Edit: So in answer to your question..... If I had to pick say a 10 minute window which was the best time to bet.....? I would plump for 920-930! Or whenever it is that the last BOG Bookie prices up....