Flat Racing - Wednesday 23rd May 2012

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3.30 Lingfield EURHYTHMIC 4pts to win @ 15/2 bog (Bet365) In this race all the eyes and the money will be on Heading To First as the Paddy Butler-trained 5yo ran really well last time out and will try to add another success to his poor palmares (1 win and 2 seconds in 21 starts so far) with the eye-catching booking of Ryan Moore (very rare for the stable) for today's ride. Heading To First seemed to have found his form again (his sole success came 2 years ago at Leicester over 1m off 70 and had been very disappointing since) mainly thanks to the fact that suddenly connections decided to up him in distance and he finished 3rd in a seller at Southwell over 1m3f, 5th in a handicap at Brighton over 1m2f (off 46 but with a 7lb claimer on board) and as written above second last time out in a handicap over 1m4f at Brighton (soft) off 45 and beaten just 1L by King's Road (Kirsty Milczarek on board). In the last 12 months he never recorded a RPR higher than 48 (last time out) and the TS of his last performance was just 12 as well as the one when third at Southwell in February (third last start) was just 15. So if this is gonna a truly run race Hidden To First could well be wrongly set as such a big favourite (around 2/1 atm). Reggie Perrin ran pretty well over hurdles last winter (twice second and now rated 120) and in summer 2011 he collected two seconds (1m2f at Brighton off 50 and 1m3f at Kempton in a classified stakes). The Pat Phelan-trained 4yo is still young and unexposed (made his debut less than 11 months ago) and after a break (213 days since his last run on the flat and 143 days since his last race over hurdles) with first time visor on he could be better than his 54 rating in such a poor race (recorded already a RPR of 60 and a couple of 58 last year). Trecase represents an in-form yard (Tony Carroll) with Luke Morris (75 winners for him in 2012 so far) on board. The 5yo gelding has been running well on the AW of late where he achieved 1 win, two seconds and a close 4th in his last 4 outs, all at Kempton, over 1m2f-1m4f. He won a very poor class 7 handicap off 49 with a 7lb claimer on board (has had a 7lb claimer on board on each of his last three starts) but he's in form and could give a good account here. Last but not least my selection that is Eurhythmic, a 5yo gelding trained by Jim Old. Eurhythmic comes from a good family of multiple winners both over hurdles and on the flat and he is a half-brother to Dr Johnson Irish Derby second in the late 90s and winner of a couple of Listed and therefore he costed 40,000gns 18 months ago when Jim Old purchased him from Charles O'Brien. The horse had had his problems (debut in November 2009 and second race in September 2010) but showed a bit of class in his 4 efforts in Ireland at the end of the 2010 campaign (still 3yo back then of course) finishing twice 4th, once third and once second just 1L behind Table Mountain a horse rated 95 on the flat. That second came at Navan in October 2010 in a 19-runner maiden that was Eurhythmic's first out over 1m2f (has been campaigned over shorter in all his other starts on the flat before his last race). He was given plenty to do in that race as he was nearly last turning into the straight but he came with a sustained run from early in the straight and ran on particularly well when hitting the rising ground inside the last furlong (this is the comment of his performance that day). Two months later he joined Jim Old and was schooled for his new job over hurdles where he has been very disappointing in 5 starts so far. During the last winter Old sent him back on the flat but on the AW here at Lingfield when the horse's rating was still 76 and 70 and he failed to show anything good but dropped to a more workable mark and back on turf after a 2-month break he showed he still retains some ability finishing third at Brighton in a handicap over 1m2f (soft) off 60. Held up in touch, ridden and effort over 2f out, outpaced by leading pair well over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd inside final furlong, no threat to leaders. He couldn't threat the leaders who were the in-form Byrd In Hand and Lord Of The Storm who finished in the opposite order in another C&D affair few days earlier and Lord Of The Storm was running a cracker also yesterday even if badly upped in the rating but was very unlucky and could finish just 4th (found no room twice when full of running in the final 2f). The duo went clear but Eurhythmic showed a pleasing finish and was closing even on the front pair in the last meters and that's not a bad form in this contest. Not at all I'd say. He's been dropped 3lb more (57 today) and still totally unexposed over this trip and will be running in a race which is surely easier than the one he contested last time out, he should be also able to come on a bit from that performance (first race after a little break) and with better ground to suit more (testing conditions last time out) and 1.5f farther surely to help him he stands a very decent chance at a big price here.

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Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 23rd May 2012 4.00 Lingfield FREDERICK WILLIAM 4pts to win @ 11/2 bog (Paddy Power and Bet365) This is a very nice class 5 handicap over 1m6f with a lot of runners standing a decent chance. The big favourite is Alfraamsey (around 13/8 atm) who had shown his best over short distances during his first two seasons (2010 and 2011) winning twice over 6f (at Newcastle two years ago in a maiden for 2yo and at Wolverhampton 14 months ago in a handicap for 3yo off 55). Last July the horse was purchased from the Charlton's yard and moved to Sheena West's stable where he was trained for his new job over hurdles and has been more than good in that sphere collecting 3 wins in a row (Sep-Oct 2011), 2 seconds, 2 thirds and 1 fifth in a Listed in just 8 starts. After the winter break (doesn't handle soft ground) he confirmed his form over hurdles with a good second at Kempton over 2m making his handicap debut in that sphere off 125 (now rated 128) and one month later has been sent back on the flat here at Lingfield (7 days ago) on the Polytrack over 2m (had run only once over 1m2f last December and all his previous efforts on the flat had been at sprint distances). Jimmy Fortune was on board and sent him soon to take the lead and after a very slow tempo he quickened clear in the final straight and won easily by 5L. That was off 52 and today he's back with a 6lb penalty so off 58 but his new rating will be 61 so he's 3lb well in today. That race was a bit of a farce as often is the case for the middle-long distance races on the AW (almost 11 seconds slow) and the second was a 45-rated horse who was having his first run after 2 years (Tae Kwon Do) and third and fourth Waldsee and Broughton Bandit (the two market leaders of that race just ahead of Alfraamsey) who ran again in a similar race yesterday evening (2m, class 6 handicap at Kempton) and were again very disappointing. Broughton Bandit was the market leader again and fnished 7th beaten 9L by Blackstone Vegas and Waldsee who led 5f out was headed in the final straight and faded to finish 5th almost 6L behind the winner. That to underline that Alfraamsey won in nice style and is of course totally unexposed over this kind of trip but it wasn't a strong race at all (he recorded a TS of 13). So I'm trying to oppose him today because at 13/8 and 6/4 his price is way to short imho. My selection is Frederick William, a 4yo gelding trained by Chris Gordon since last October (with Peter Makin before). Frederick William is the top weight here and just gets into this grade (0-70) being rated 70. He has had just 10 runs on the flat so far (3 very poor over hurdles last autumn) and is totally unexposed imho. He ran a decent race upped for the first time over 2m at Lingfield (AW) in January in a class 6 handicap off 65 when 4th but just 2L behind the winner. He was fitted with first-time cheekpieces on that return to the flat. He improved on the outside 3f out, but despite having to come very wide off the home bend he didn't help his rider under pressure and as the comment of that race reminds us: "he is another that possesses more talent that he is currently displaying". Next time out he was again here at Lingfield on the Polytrack but over 1m5f in a maiden where he disappointed a bit finishing 6th of 8 (Hayley Turner on board that day) but that was a hot race for the level as the first two were the Evan Williams-trained Kayalar and Zarzal who were taking advantage of their maiden status on the flat and went on to better things over hurdles in Grade companies since with Mark Johnston-trained Southern State who finished third in that race and has won since (rated 75 now). Back on track at Kempton over 2m Frederick William finally showed what he is capable of and won in very nice style a class 5 (0-70) handicap off 64. He beat 3.5L The Absent Mare (11/4 favourite of that race) who has won easily next time out a similar race off that same mark (upped 4lb now) and third beaten 7L was Blackstone Vegas who has finished 4th of 14, 2nd of 11 back over hurdles and won very easily yesterday (off 1lb lower mark) on his next/last three starts. As written above Blackstone Vegas beat very easily Waldsee and Broughtons Bandit yesterday at Kempton and that collateral line enhances my idea that Frederick William stands a very decent chance here while Alfraamsey is too short in the market in what is gonna be a way better race than the one he won last time out with the presence of Not Til Monday (good second last time out), Bute Street (good third last time out), El Libertador (twice winner over similar distances on the AW here a couple of months ago) and Dream Catcher (4-time AW winner and 3 over hurdles who gets Ryan Moore on board today) all able to play their role and make life a bit more difficult for the front runner and big favourite Alfraamsey.