Flat Racing - Thu 10th May

[Stevet1859]

1:35 Chester: Absinthe 1pt win 11/2 Paddy Power Absinthe has his first outing for Donald McCain on the flat and he has run well for the top jumps trainer over hurdles since leaving Walter Swinburn. There is a chance he has been improved by the stable switch and last time out the tongue tie also seemed to work, although that was a pretty straightforward opportunity (which he took well) at Wetherby. Absinthe should be competitive off this sort of mark and handles the soft going, so even without the hoped for improvement he should be there abouts. 3:05 Chester: Arnold Lane 1pt win 10/1 William Hill Arnold Lane put up his best performance of last season on a softer surface at Salisbury when runner up to Artistic Jewel with Gusto back in fourth. Artistic Jewel went on to win a Listed race next time out at Newmarket and Gusto has hardly stopped winning since. The form of that race looks good. By Footstepsinthesand who won the 2000 Guineas, this extra distance is likely to be in Arnold Lane's favour, and while these early season three year old races are hard to predict, Arnold Lane looks to have a better chance than his price.

[RussP]

Flat Racing - Thu 10th May Assuming racing goes ahead after the inspection, there's one bet for me. 4.30 Goodwood Soft ground, Class 5 handicap over the straight 6f with 14 runners competing. I'm happy to take on the 3 market leaders at the prices who have all won lto but that was on the AW and will face much different conditions here today. Instead, I prefer one of the more experienced types: Alfresco (3pts EW @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Middle draw for this 8yo so not too worried which side they decide to race on. This horse has some great track form (3 wins from 8) which is important at a specialist track like Goodwood, whilst is reunited with the jockey that has a record of 2 wins, 2 places from 6 rides. In respect of conditions, I'm pretty certain this is the horses best trip whilst soft ground, despite not winning on it, could prove the making of this one. Other than its early days when outclassed, has raced once on soft at the end of last campaign, finishing 6th of 14 here when held up too long and not having the smoothest passage through. To me, looked at home on the surface that day. Form over C&D reads 1 (OR72) - 1 (68) - 3 (73) - 1 (70) - 6 (74) with the middle 3 efforts all with this jockey up top. Stable is pretty shrewd and sends just one to the track and is fit from a few spins on the sand. Last time it raced off a mark this low (68) was 2 years, culminating in a win over C&D. Last year, this horse opened up with a couple of average efforts on the sand, similar to this year, before coming down to Goodwood and winning so I'm hoping it repeats the feat this year. At an EW price, I'm happy to take the chance.