Flat Racing - Mon 7th May

[RussP]

3 bets for me on this bank holiday. 4.00 Beverley Class 4 handicap over an extended 1m with 12 taking their chance. Plenty of exposed types in this so I'm sure there's any that hasn't showed their hand. Based on that, I'm going with what I consider to the classiest in the field: Arabian Spirit (3pts EW @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG) - Now a 7yo with 45 runs to its name but not run off a mark this low since it's last win in Aug 2010. Hails from a powerful stable and interestingly, a 5lb claimer takes the ride effectively making this one appear off just 75. Weather looks like it may rain tomorrow PM so think the ground should stay on the soft side of good which will definitely suit our charge too. Whilst not managing to get its head in front last term, did perform creditably on many occasions including a 2nd, 3rd and 3 4th's, all off marks of 86 or more. Only 2 runs on rain softened ground during the season, a 3rd of 13 off 88 and 4th of 14 off 90. Now off a much lower mark, a repetition of those runs will see this one back in the winners enclosure. Admittedly, 3 runs this term have been disappointing but excuses including having to run on Fibresand lto. This stiff test is probably what's needed and in a race that may not take much winning, I'm happy to be on a horse that is significantly better than this grade. 5.05 Windsor 11 in for this Class 4, 10f handicap. Many of these are making their reappearance so it could be question of wellbeing but the thing that sticks out to me is the likely breakneck pace so I've gone down the 'definite stayer' route: Nave (3pts EW @ 9/1 Paddy Power BOG) - First run for a new stable and I'm taking it to be a winning start. Campaigned almost exclusively over further but, on evidence, I think this trip should be fine and the soft ground and fast pace should make it a decent test. Back down to its last winning mark of 82 and also dropped into this grade for the first time in over 12 months. Not many efforts on soft ground but did win on it up at Carlisle off this mark the season before last. Many creditable efforts last term including lto when 5th at Goodwood having raced up with a strong pace. Should have no issues when fresh either. 3rd first time up last term and a close up 5th the season before. Breeding suggests this one should enough pace to be very competitive over 10f and I'm happy to get involved in this smallish yet competitive field at a big price. 5.30 Beverley Class 5, 7f handicap with 14 runners. Despite the field size, I really don't like the chances of many of these and feel that the market leaders have lots to prove. There is however one unexposed horse I feel has improvement. Fieldgunner Kirkup (4pts EW @ 9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Shrewd trainer / jockey combo who should always be feared, especially if there's stable confidence and is trainers only runner at the meeting. Just 1 wins from 11 starts but is only a 4yo and looks the type to improve with age. Seasonal reappearance here but fitness shouldn't be an issue, considering it's head 2nd on its first run last term. That was off 79 but has a mark of just 72 today, showing how disappointing its season was last term. Won its maiden as a 2yo on a stiff track so the course shouldn't be an issue, whilst it's bred to be suited by a stiff test of stamina so the extended 7f is ideal. Last run of the season saw a much improved effort, having fallen in the handicap to this mark, finishing 3rd at Redcar staying on very well inside the last furlong. Blinkers are discarded today but is now reunited with stable jockey which gives me loads of confidence. I just feel that there's load in its favour today and has the most scope for improvement. Provided the ground doesn't get too soft, I think this one could take it in a strongly run contest and 9/1 looks a very fair price in a race full of horses with plenty to prove.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing - Mon 7th May 3.00 Windsor - 3pts win Cardinal @ 10/1 (VC) Robert Cowell's horse has always been one I've had my eye on ever since he scooted up over today's c&d in October 2010 and now runs off just 3lbs lower than that effort. Shane Kelly took the ride that day and is on board again. He travelled superbly well in the rear up the rail but looked to have little chance as he was still there with less than 2f to go. Kelly continually angled him right out to deliver his challenge up the centre of the course - racing about 12 horses wide and got up to win by over a length! He ran okay off 6lbs higher the next three times without his ideal conditions before scooting up by 4l at Wolverhampton. This effort hit him hard, however, as he saw his mark shoot up to 78 and he's struggled to land a blow ever since. He still ran some admirable races last year in defeat, though, and has dropped down to a mark of 68 which he looks certain to capitalise on at some point this year. This race is no better than some of those he was competing fairly well in last year and has been freshened up by a break. He's had very little spells off the track through his career so it's difficult to gauge how well he can go fresh but has run well after 2 or 3 months off before and the fact Shane Kelly takes the ride suggests to me that he'll be ready to run his race. His strike rate isn't the best but he's clearly got some talent and has often had excuses throughout his career - be it trip, the way the race is run, and been handicapped out of matters. When things click he looks impressive and he returns at a course he enjoys and on ground that suits. 2435 is his record on going described as 'soft' and he's never been beaten more than 3 1/4l under these conditions. Robert Cowell has his string in good order and with 2 or 3 pace angles in the race things should be run to suit. If he's fit he'll go extremely close for me I think because everything else is spot on for him it appears. Definitely one to keep on side of, however, even if today isn't the day.