Flat Racing - Thu 3rd May 2012 (Brighton, Musselburgh, Lingfield, Tipperary)

[Edberg]

« 3:10 » Lingfield (AW) THU 3 MAY 2012 MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+) Winner £1,704 Standard 6f Number of runners: 6 (5 now) LE KING BEAU 4pts to win @ 9/2 bog (Bet365) Aye Aye Digby is the big favourite of this race as he's rated 85 and won 6 races in 41 starts (all over 6f and 7f) and won his only start on Polytrack that was his last race at Kempton in a claimer over 6f, 161 days ago (24 Nov 2011). This 7yo was rated up to 92 at his best (2009) but has been still able to finished 2nd (beaten a head) in a handicap over 6f at Brighton last August off 78. Switching to claimers and sellers Aye Aye Digby has shown his best of late as he won twice and finished 2nd in the other of his three starts in this sphere. Since July 2009 his only two wins came in claimers (at Folkestone over 6f last June the second last). His AW mark for his debut was set at 79 and after that win has been upped to 85 but in my opinion that's flattering his real value a lot. That day he beat 10 horses and 9 of them (all but Dvinksy) have seen their marks dropping fast in the last few months (C'Mon You Irons from 62 to 54, Mawjoodah from 71 to 68, Waabel from 78 to 61 and now back to 69 after two wins in his last 5 starts, Memphis Man from 60 to 52, Lutine Charlie from 74 to 63, Desert Icon from 75 to 74, Perfect Act from 83 to 65, Dvinsky stable at 62, Sarah's Art from 67 to 62 and Royal Intruder from 75 to 50). All that long list to underline that his only race on Polytrack was a good win since he travelled well and didn't seem in trouble but the first four finished in less than 2L and imho that result's been probably overrated. More or less the same applies for his second on his second last out at Windsor (6f, claimer, 17 Oct 2011) as also that form has been more than brought down by the following performances of those runners. Aye Aye Digby never ran well after a break: 6th beaten 9L, 9th beaten 12.5L, 3rd beaten 2L, 15th beaten 31L, 4th beaten 7L. The small yard of Patrick Charmings had just one runner in the last fortnight (Uncle Fred here at Kempton yesterday) and even if on paper he stood a decent chance (9/1 third favourite of that race) the horse finished 10th of 12, 7.25L behind the winner Great Shot. No negatives of course about the jockey George Baker who is one of my favourites and is riding very well of late (3 winners in the last 10 days). So this doesn't look a solid odds-on favourite imho and I'm looking to oppose him with the youngest horse of the field Le King Beau. The 3yo gelding had an average late start of his career in October (6th, 4th and 4th on his first three outs) but switched to selling/claiming company has been showing his best: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st (4 wins and 2 seconds all on the AW over 6f and 7f and the worst of those results, even if still a 2nd (but beaten 6L), came on his sole start on Fibresand) in less than two months (31 Oct 2011 - 29 Dec 2011). He came at Lingfield Park twice and both times he's won. His rating was therefore upped from 62 to 70 and turned 3 John Bridger decided to send Le King Beau to handicaps. he made his debut in handicap off 70 over 6f at Kempton and finished 3rd beaten only 1.75L by Oratorian who had won his previous start and finished second on his next one and is now rated 81 (7lb higher than when beating Le King Beau) while the fifth of that race was Redair who has gone on to win 4 of his next 6 starts (all over 5f) easily winning his last handicap on AW off 71 (already rated 78 on turf). Le King Beau's second try in handicap (off the same mark of 70) came 3 days later again over 6f at Kempton and he finished 5th of 10 beaten 3L by Gabrial's Bounty but that form has been franked even more than his previous one since Gabrial's Bounty has collected 3 wins and 3 seconds in his last 6 outs and yesterday he's won a handicap at Pontefract off 75 (he won off 62 when beating Le King Beau on the 18th of January). The second of that race (Illustrious Lad) has been upped 2lb after a close second next time out and the third (Berlusca) has collected one win and three places after that race and his mark has gone up 6lb since that race. Even Dressed In Lace (7th that day) has gone in on her next and so far last start winning a handicap off 69 (facing older horses for the first time). So Le King Beau has contested in two little hot handicaps for 3yo and is actual mark of 69 (dropped 1lb since) seems to be a bit underestimating his qualities. Surely he's gonna face a tough task as this will be his first race against older horses and he's gonna do that after a 106-day break but with a good 3lb claimer on board (Sean Levey is probably the best 3lb claimer around atm) he is still even 1lb better than the odds-on favourite Aye Aye Digby on adjusted marks and on one side I rate Aye Aye Digby's mark a bit flattering his real value and running after a break he's never been at his best on the other side we have a younger horse who could be still able to improve and his actual mark could be still underestimating his real value as the form of his last two races seems to prove. Bilko Pak won 4 times when still with Richard Hannon but has never gone even close to win with 4 different trainers since and should find 21lb on adjusted marks with my selection: mission impossible I'd dare to say. Diamond Vine is together with Le King Beau the only C&D winner of these runners and the 4yo represents an important combination since Ronald Harris and Luke Morris have been partnering for many winners in the last couple of seasons. Diamond Vine won twice in 11 starts on the AW (both earlier this calendar year) and both over 6f here at Lingfield winning the first handicap off 60 and the second off 65. He's now rated 70 as off 71 he's been running pretty bad on his last couple of starts (even over this C&D). This will be his first try in this sphere on the AW and he surely loves it here but it seems a tough ask at weights as he should find 14lb to beat Le King Beau on adjusted official figures. Last but not least the dark horse of the race: Ghostwing. This horse is far from being straightforward and constant but has surely got the class to win a race like this. The 5yo grey gelding trained by James Evans has collected 1 win and 3 seconds in 10 starts on the AW and when he didn't win or go close he usually finished last and far from the winners. He's had only one start in this sphere and that was three weeks ago at Southwell over 6f when he was beaten only by Punching and again at Southwell he had achieved his last success winning a 5f handicap off 75 in January but in the other 3 starts in 2012 he beat only one home collectin more than 20L behind the winners. So Ghostwind is still able to win races and perform well but that mainly happens at Southwell and he's surely not anymore the force he was in the past when rated up to 92 and 5th in the Richmond behind Dick Turpin at 2 after an impressive win in a maiden at Ayr and still able to win a 6f handicap at Chepstow at 3 off 85. On official adjusted figures he should find 5lb with my selection.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing - Thu 3rd May 2012 (Brighton, Musselburgh, Lingfield, Tipperary) 5.35 Musselburgh This is a weak affair and not hard to reservation about most of these based on what they have shown most recently. See The Storm is a little bit hit and miss and only one win to his name but Hanagan an eye catching booking in a weak field, not ideal ground conditions so slightly off putting. Dunseverik looks very short in the market based on what he has achieved to date, still a maiden after 13 starts and two dismal runs when last seen, Fibresand possible excuse latest as has had 4 starts on surface and shown very little. Garstang was another that was very short in the overnight market at 6/4 and wasnt surprised to see him drift out to 11/4 which I feel is still plenty short enough. Has been running well on AW throughout winter, never been quite so good on turf and therefore turf mark some 17lb below last AW winning mark. Ran too bad last time out to be 100% true so clearly has to bounce back from that aswell as proving ground with cut suits as all turf wins have come on fast ground and a long time ago! So looks vunerable. Last night Whats For Pudding was priced at 10/1 which was a ridiculous price. She handles cut in the ground and after some disappointing efforts on AW when last seen (yet to prove handles AW surface) has now dropped to a mark just 2lb higher than last win over CD and doesnt look overweighted in a field like this. She may also get a vital soft lead in this field and she is the only out and out front runner and should go well aslong as she is ready for this on seasonal debut! 1pt win Whats For Pudding 10/1 bet365 (now best priced 5/1 VC)