False Favourites & Bad Market Prices

[Mr.Wilson]

Morning Folks!, Was just thinking about how do you guys get through searching a days worth of racing to filter through all the false favourites or bad market prices that are available. What techniques do you use and is there any advice you'd like to share?

[richard-westwood]

Re: False Favourites & Bad Market Prices what i do daily is ....... make a rough approximation of speed ratings by hand and jot down estimate next to each horse in races up to 1 mile i then look through said races and try and find the races where the fav has a low rating or there is a horse with a big rating at a big price i then start the spreadsheet up and rate the race fully ,once i have the ratings they can sometimes look like this : fav 78 2nd fav 83 3rd fav 77 4th fav 85 this would appear as a false fav to me and after looking at the form more closely if i considered this rating to be an accurate reflection of the horses ability today then i would see this as a play race and worth taking on ...... i then price up the race myself based on horses form over trip /track /handicap mark etc and give the horse a price based upon the price i would be scared to lay this horse at today i then go back to the markets and compare the horses prices against whats on offer and hey presto the value bets of the day just jump out .......takes a bit of time but i can do it quite quickly now in about 30 mins for a days racing.they may not always win ...but at least i know im getting a value bet each time i play so in the long term i always come out on top if theres a lot of races too short in runners or all close rated together then i usually wont bet ....lots of races like that this week (not many runners) so very few bets at the moment.....i prefer 8-12 runner hcaps