Flat Racing - Thu 26th April

[RussP]

2 bets for me today. 2.40 Beverley If we have no NR's coming race time on this rain softened, we'll have 11 for the 1m2f, Class 5 handicap. With conditions the way they are, I'm looking for a horse that will go on the ground as a starter and one such horse is: Sharp Sovereign (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - This one has a definite chance on the going. Now a 6yo, it retains plenty of ability despite not scoring since Oct 2010 but has run some good races in defeat off higher marks. Off 64 today, this one finished 2nd 4 times last term, all of slightly higher marks but, more interestingly, 3 times on stiff tracks like it faces today. Form on ground with soft in the going reads 2-3-2 last season, whilst stiff track form over the same period reads 0-7-2-6-2-2-3-8, with mark & ground to blame for the failures. Won the last time it raced off a mark this low on turf and is race fit after a couple of spins already this year despite not having conditions to suit. I've mentioned going, stiffness of track and handicap mark as 3 factors that put this horse in with a great shout, not to mention good looking speed figures on soft ground, but the final thing to sway this bet is the pace angle. I expect this one will be given a soft lead and, if it is, I'd hope the jockey will dictate the tempo and hopefully have them on the stretch inside the distance. The market leaders look beatable to me and it marks the EW 10's on offer a real good price. 3.10 Beverley 1m4f, Class 4 handicap with 12 runners. On a similar theme, I'm looking for a soft ground lover that likes a stiff track and I think I've found one lurking near the foot of the handicap: Kathleen Frances (9/1 Ladbrokes BOG) - Races off 77, this one looks to have a serious chance with a really eye catching jockey booking. Trainer sends just this one up from Newmarket and I fancy it to pay off. Is reasonably lightly raced for a 5yo with just 14 races to its name but amongst them are 3 wins, a nice strike rate. Has only run once in a handicap on a testing track, that being the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle where 3 came clear only for our horse to come off 2nd bet. That was back in June and it's the first time since then that this one has been able to run off that mark. Form with cut in the ground reads 1-3-2, with the latter 2 being the only times the horse has recorded speed figures over 80. Loves the trip and is one that will definitely get every yard and should be staying on well when push comes to shove. The only slight worry is the lack of a big run on its seasonal reappearance but, in both years, hasn't had things to suit. As a 3yo, returned in a top Newmarket maiden with our horse going off a 100/1 whilst last term, it ran in good handicap at York only giving out inside the final furlong after having pulled too hard. Fit & well, this horse looks capable to getting off the mark for the season at the first attempt.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing - Thu 26th April 2.40 Beverly: Sharp Sovereign @ 10/1 Bet365 Awful race, really, though best suited by the conditions could be Sharp Sovereign. He's 2lb below his last winning mark and has won on soft ground already. He won only two times over 10 furlongs yet, but was placed in half of all his start over this distance. He won already at Beverly in the past, even though his last win is quite a while ago. But he didn't race of such a low (turf) mark for a very long time either. He'll relish the uphill finish at Beverly as 4 from his 5 career wins came at tracks with an uphill finish. He wasn't seen at his best in his two starts this year so far but with the underfoot conditions very likely to suit he could be easily very competitive in this race from his fallen mark. The 3 pounds claim from jockey Dale Swift is an additional bonus. 7.25 Brighton: Rigolleto @ 5/2 Paddy Power Small field, question marks about every one of the four runners but it looks as if Rigolleto might have found a good opportunity to finally score again. He didn't win again since breaking his maiden tag in August 2010 when winning over 7f at Chester on good to soft ground. He tried straight after that his luck in some better races, finished third in a Listed race and his mark went subsequently up for that. He was placed a couple of times last year but couldn't win and ended the year with some poor efforts. He didn't start much better into the new season recently though I have the feeling that there was the handbrake on in his last three races. His Handicap mark slipped down in consequence and he can race now of a mark off 80. The ground conditions at Brighton are pretty bad tomorrow, though they aren't a worry for Rigolleto as his best performance last year came over 7f on soft ground at Sandown, when finishing 2nd just 1/2 lengths beaten of a mark of 85. So everything is setted up for a big run. Handy mark, race fitness, form on ground...