jump racing thursday 26th april

[beaker1]

The two chase races that were scheduled to take place on Wednesday, notably the Grade 1 Tote.com Punchestown Gold Cup, have now been postponed until Saturday following the wild conditions which will replace the beginners’ chase and bumper. There is an 8.00 a.m. inspection planned for tomorrow. 3.40 STEPHENS GREEN HIBERNIAN CLUB HURDLE Harchibald, Kalahari King and Jessies Dream are the three most notable winners of this novice hurdle in the last decade over 2m4f restricted to horses that have not won more than once over hurdles. SHORT LIST TOFINOBAY NELSON’S BRIDGE AT FISHERS CROSS CONCLUSION TOFINO BAY stands out on form on his second to Get Me Out Of Here at Fairyhouse over Easter where he gave the winner a real race only being headed at the final flight so we know that he is in great heart plus he has a course-and-distance win in the bag and has won two of his four starts on officially heavy going so he is clearly the one to beat and that is likely to be reflected in his price. If you fancy something with meat on the bone regards likely odds then J P McManus’s AT FISHERS CROSS is more interesting than most and could be a tad of each-way value. Trained by Rebecca Curtis, she sends him over fromBritainfor just his second hurdles start having previously won his two bumpers. Beaten at odds-on on his hurdles debut over 2m at Ffos Las, maybe a step up in trip will help his jumping which was less than fluent but I would certainly expect him to improve for that experience anyway. McManus’ colours are also represented by NELSON’S BRIDGE and Nicky Henderson sends him over having finished down the field in theNeptunebehind his stablemate, Simonsig. He had won his previous two races at small tracks in a bumper and maiden hurdle and must be well regarded for Henderson to have run him in the Neptune on only his second hurdles start. 4.15 COLEMAN TUNNELLING IRELAND, UK AND AFRICA HANDICAP CHASE I’ve seen snappier race titles for this 2m handicap chase which has attracted nine declarations in probably the least interesting handicap chase of the meeting. SHORT LIST SENIOR AGAIN BOB LINGO LAST TIME D’ALBAIN SEE U BOB CONCLUSION BOB LINGO was supposed to run in the 6.40 race on Wednesday which has now been transferred to Saturday so whether he runs here is somewhat up in the air at present. If so, then he is the most likely winner having won the valuable Dan Moore Memorial Chase on his last start and he is off only a 7lbs higher mark here in a less competitive prize. That is likely to be reflected in his price though. In his possible absence though, maybe look to the Leopardstown 2m1f form in January on heavy ground when SENIOR AGAIN beat Uncle Tom Cobley. The winner handles these conditions very well and only having 9st 10lbs on his back in this ground could be an advantage. He has only had one run since when third in a competitive 17-runner novices’ handicap chase at Fairyhouse over Easter in which LAST TIME D’ALBAIN finished second some 15 lengths ahead of him. The runner-up is only 7lbs worse off with the third today so clearly holds a major chance. SEE U BOB could be interesting in first-time blinkers. Paul Nolan’s charge has done most of his winning on a testing surface and has run well on all three starts at Punchestown so if there is to be a surprise winner, then he may be the one. Not a race I’m mad keen on to be honest. 4.50 LA TOUCHE CUP (AVON RI CORPORATE & LEISURE RESORT CHASE) The La Touche Cup has attracted a huge field of 25 this year (just nine ran last year though firm ground had a lot to with that) and remains the most prestigious and longest cross-country chase in Britain or Ireland. Enda Bolger has won 11 of the last 13 runnings including four 1-2s and he is represented this year by just Arabella Boy and Doctor Pat. Is his vice-like grip on cross country racing starting to weaken though? Given Bolger’s virtual monopolisation of the La Touche Cup, it is no shock that punters should latch onto his runners so therefore it is also no surprise that all bar two of the last 17 winners have started at no bigger than 7/1. These kind of races have their specialists so are very rarely won by horses outside of the first three in betting. Take the last three runnings for example which have witnessed 1-2-3-4’s for the first four in the betting in 2010 and 2011 and the most fancied quartet in the betting in 2009 filled four of the first five positions. The cross country chase here on Tuesday saw the first four in the betting finish first, second, third and fifth. Looking at Cheltenham’s three cross-country races run earlier in the season, it is the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country Handicap which has the best record with five winners since it was first run in 2005 and is represented here by Tally Em Up (5th), Uncle Junior (8th) and Double Dizzy (beaten when unseated rider at the 27th fence). Last season’s La Touche Cup is the other big guide featuring five of the last ten winners but only last year’s fourth, Outlaw Pete, returns this year. Surprisingly, the P.P. Hogan Memorial Chase over these banks in February in which the sadly-departed pair of Scotsirish and Garde Champetre finished first and second has not been a great guide to the La Touche Cup. Tally Em Up didn’t finish too far behind the big two on that occasion back in third. The mere thought of ‘The British Challenge’ would have Irish racing fans in hysterics for a cross country race given the lack of success the Brits have in their own backyard with the exception of Philip Hobbs’ runners of late so you can’t really blame connections of British-trained horses for not wanting to pay for the privilege of travelling over and getting walloped all over again in a race they have never won. Double Dizzy and Shalimar Fromentro represents the raiders this time. SHORT LIST OUTLAW PETE UNCLE JUNIOR ARABELLA BOY SADDLERS STORM CONCLUSION OUTLAW PETE was trained by Enda Bolger when fourth in last year’s race but is now with John Halley (still owned by J P McManus) and appears to have retained his ability judged on good wins in point-to-points including a ten lengths’ defeat of Footy Facts. He started favourite for last year’s below-par renewal having won a cross country race at the meeting two days earlier but that recent run could have taken the edge off him and he arrives here fresher this time. Tally Em Up fared best of the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race contenders (the best guide of the current season) after finishing third in the P. P. Hogan which has been a poor guide and he looks the type to keep finding a few too good. The Cheltenham cross country conditions race winner back in November, UNCLE JUNIOR, would be my idea of the horse who ran at the Cheltenham Festival to have the best chance but he will have to give weight away all round here, though weight isn’t a big a factor in these races as on park courses. Given Enda Bolger’s staggering record in this race it would be silly not to include one of his pair and ARABELLA BOY appeals far more than Doctor Pat. Pulled up in the Irish National last time out, he has previously looked like he was coming to the boil at the right time when a close-up second in a good handicap at Naas and, at the age of seven, he may well be the horse to be a regular in these races for Bolger in years to come following the end of era with his previous cross country stars. In addition to Arabella Boy the likes of SADDLERS STORM and Shakervilz are classy handicappers trying banks races for the first time. Saddlers Storm represents Tony Martin who has a good record in cross country races atCheltenhamand is an interesting recruit and was second to the Foxhunters’ winner, Salsify, on his penultimate start so is likely to hold one of the coveted top four positions in the betting. 5.30 LADBROKES.COM WORLD SERIES HURDLE First run as a Grade 1 race in 1995, the Brits have had the best of it winning eight of the next 12 runnings and Get Me Out Of Here is their only representative this time. The Irish, or rather Willie Mullins, has fought back winning the last three renewals in addition to also landing this prize in 2003. Quevega may have bagged the last two renewals in addition to the last four runnings of the **** Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham but she faces stiff opposition in her bid to land this prize for a third consecutive year in the shape of last year’s fourth, Voler La Vedette, who has improved significantly in the last 12 months having finally learned to settle. Only the injury-prone Fiveforthree of the last nine winners did not contest a race at the Cheltenham Festival which is against Berties Dream but he is a real slogger on a testing surface as he showed when winning the Albert Bartlett, plus Won In The Dark and Whatuthink. No surprise, of course, that the Cheltenham Festival should carry so much weight but the fact that just one of the last 12 winners (Blazing Bailey) contested the Ladbrokes World Hurdle is a real eye-opener as that race would seem to be the obvious first port of call which is the main trend against the gallant runner-up, Voler La Vedette, plus Mourad (prefers better ground than this) and Mikael D’Haguenet. The Aintree Hurdle has been the best individual race guide featuring three of the last eight winners but is unrepresented this season (probably as there is only 12 days between races this year) and the best Irish guide of late has been the WoodiesDIY.com Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas won stylishly by Voler La Vedette beating Mourad with a couple of winners in the last decade. Outside of the key races, others stats to take on board are that eight of the last 11 winners won last time out (Quevega, Get Me Out Of Here and Berties Dream) the favourite has won five of the last six runnings (Quevega at present) and four of the last 13 winners made all which goes against the usual pattern at this meeting on the hurdles track (though two of those held a big class advantage being strong odds-on favourites). Unlike in the World Hurdle, age hasn’t been a major factor and we have even had a winning five-year-old in Paddy’s Return which has never been the case at Cheltenham. SHORT LIST QUEVEGA GET ME OUT OF HERE (BERTIES DREAM) CONCLUSION QUEVEGA has to be the trends pick to complete her hat-trick in this race having won last time out, is likely to start favourite and represents a trainer with a good record in the race especially given that her main market rival, Voler La Vedette, contested the World Hurdle where she beat all bar Big Buck’s which has surprisingly been an awful guide. The worry at the price is whether the testing ground could test her stamina. She does stay this far of course but she has not tried it on testing ground and has plenty of speed. GET ME OUT OF HERE is also a last-time-out winner and ran well atCheltenhamwhere for the third year running he finished second, this time off top weight in the Coral Cup. His last-time-out win came at Fairyhouse where he won a Grade 2 over 2m4f and in staying fashion and this first attempt at three miles could eke out more improvement. He only has 3lbs to find with Quevega on official figures. If there is to be a surprise then BERTIES DREAM could be the one to cause it. The negative for him is bypassing the Cheltenham Festival but he does arrive here off a win and he stays all day on bad ground as he demonstrated when he caused a big upset in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in 2010 by six lengths in what was a real gruelling war of attrition which this could be, especially if he tries to make all as he has been attempting to do and achieving on a couple of occasions this season. I like his each-way chances. 6.05 NAAS COURTAND IL FICO RESTAURANT HANDICAP HURDLE A 25-runner three-mile handicap hurdle where horses in the top half of the weights struggled in the previous ten years up until Kerb Appeal’s success last year. SHORT LIST CATLEEN MINI VIC SCHOLARS MATE MEMORIES OFMILAN DON LEONE CONCLUSION Under normal circumstances I wouldn’t go near this race but these would be my suggestions if you are looking for an interest. Willie Mullins took this race last year and it could well be that he has aimed SCHOLARS MATE at it this time giving him his only run of the season last month which was his first race since November 2009 (had won his previous two starts). He shaped okay in seventh if the plan was to get a run into him before this handicap. He may be an 11-year-old but he has only run ten times in his career. Mullins also runs CATLEEN whose hat-trick bid was foiled when dropping back to 2m last time out when finishing fifth of 16 but this 3m on testing ground is likely to be a different test altogether and she has shown an obvious likeness for very soft ground. MINI VIC has form figures of 262121 on soft or heavy ground compared to 450 on a better surface so perhaps we can gloss over his eighteenth place finish last time out on good ground over Easter at Fairyhouse. She should appreciate this deeper ground much better and is towards the bottom of the handicap and Declan Bates takes off another 5lbs so she is of each-way interest. MEMORIES OF MILAN is also worth a look. Second at this meeting in another handicap hurdle last season, he hasn’t shown much since to be frank but if a return to this fixture and the first-time blinkers work, then he can outrun his odds. The five-year-old DON LEONE has the most potential to improve as this is just his fourth race over hurdles and also his handicap debut. Formerly with Aidan O’Brien where he won just one of his seven starts, but that victory was on soft ground and a handicap mark of 116 might underestimate him. 6.40 RYANAIR NOVICE CHASE The Punchestown equivalent of the Arkle Trophy has surprisingly witnessed older novices faring much the best with only two of the last 16 winners aged under seven and one of those was a subsequent Gold Cup winner in War Of Attrition. That doesn’t bode well for the five-year-old, Kumbeshwar. Older novices (and by that I am referring to eight-year-olds and older) fare far better in this race than they do the other big two novice chases over two miles at the spring Festivals. Just two Arkle winners since 1990 have been aged older than seven (both Irish-trained) but this Punchestown contest has witnessed six such winners in the last 13 years. The eight-year-old Lucky William is the only horse aged over seven in today’s line up. As you may expect the Arkle Trophy is by far and away the most illuminating guide highlighting ten of the last 15 winners and Menorah (third) and Blackstairmountain (fifth) represent that race, though only six horses contested the Arkle this year. You would have to question whether Blackstairmountain will handle this testing ground though. The other two races to have featured more than three winners in the last ten years are the Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree (unrepresented this year) and the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Meeting won by Blackstairmountain on much better ground than he will face here. As with the Arkle and Maghull, this two-mile Grade 1 novice chase has been a friend to punters with only one of the last 17 winners starting at bigger than 6/1. The favourite, however, was on a losing streak of seven years until Captain Chris justified odds of 4/6 last season but that followed a strong run of the market leader winning six of the previous eight renewals. The Brits have won on five of the last eight occasions when they have sent over contenders and have a strong claim again with Menorah the form pick over Kumbeshwar. SHORT LIST MENORAH FIRST LIEUTENANT CONCLUSION MENORAH looked happier over 2m4f than 2m when an easy winner of the Manifesto Chase at Aintree last time out but it could just be that he is getting better with practice plus the heavy ground should ensure that they go that beat slower so it may race more like a 2m4f race to help his jumping rhythm. He is the trends horse having finished third in the Arkle, being British trained and sure to start below 6/1 and he is also the form horse so it’s a question of whether he is still in the same heart as he was at Aintree, and if he is, then he will take the beating here in his bid to give his owner and trainer consecutive wins in this race following Captain Chris last season. FIRST LIEUTENANT is likely to be his main market rival having finished second in Grade 1 races on his last two starts but he is dropping back from a personal best over 3m down to 2m here and prefers a decent surface. The slower ground could offset the drop in trip of course and he is all class as he showed when beating Rock On Ruby in a photo for last season’sNeptuneand was a very good second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase. Five others take on this class pair but I wouldn’t be mad keen to try and get them beat. Blackstairmountain is a dual Grade 1 winner but he has lost his way since Christmas and hated the testing ground in the Irish Arkle which has to be a concern. Lucky William won a handicap at the Easter Fairyhouse Meeting and a Grade 2 earlier in the season and handles a cut in the ground so he could be the one to shake up the big two. 7.15 KILDARE POST BUMPER All but two of the 12 runners have already won so this is possibly the second best bumper at the meeting. SHORT LIST VILLAGE VIC GOD OF THE KOP WHISPERING HILLS BUCKERSBRIDGE CONCLUSION Very competitive and chances can be made for a deal more than the four on the short list. VILLAGE VIC was only thirteenth in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper but he travelled like the best horse throughout the Listed bumper at Newbury when touched off by Shutthefrontdoor and we have already seen this week that Philip Hobbs does well at this meeting. Village Vic also impressed on heavy ground when making a winning debut in bumpers at Chepstow. GOD OF THE KOP represents the Rebecca Curtis yard with an excellent reputation in bumpers in Britain and arrives here off the back of a win 88 days ago at Ffos Las by 19 lengths. That victory was achieved on heavy ground and he has since been purchased by J P McManus so he is more interesting than most. WHISPERING HILLS is intriguing as he is reverting back to bumpers having run well against a smart novice hurdler in Aupcharlie over timber. Third behind Megastar in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree two years ago, that form is the best bumper form on offer even if it was two years ago so this is an interesting move from Dessie Hughes. BUCKERS BRIDGE has won his only point-to-point (3m) and only bumper (2m2f) so has demonstrated already a motor and versatility so Henry De Bromhead’s charge also makes the short list. He will be even more interesting if his proven stamina is put to good use over this 2m trip on testing ground.

[Edberg]

Re: jump racing thursday 26th april « 4:40 Perth THU 26 APR 2012 SUE BRADBURNE HAPPY MEMORIES HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) Winner £5,198 Soft 2m4f110y Number of runners: 7 SUSTAINABILITY 5pts to win @ 7/4 bog Sustainability has gone up 2 stones since starting his winning streak but as often is the case with Venetia Williams' good handicappers he has kept improving and won 4 in a row in nice style. Step up in trip should suit and the ground is surely not a problem as he has already won on soft ground at Carlisle. A couple of horses he beat in the last twice have been running really well afterwards franking those forms. Venetia Williams' yard are in good form: five seconds and a winner with their last six runners and the winner came just here at Perth yesterday. Conquisto, Trustan Times, Los Nadis and Lady Bluesky are all good horses and in good form but surely more exposed than the chestnut gelding of Venetia Williams so this should be the 5th win in a row for Sustainability.