jump racing wednesday 25th april

[beaker1]

3.40 MARTINSTOWN OPPORTUNITY SERIES FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE Up until last season the previous eight winners of this handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys carried under 11st but, as last year was such a compressed handicap, not one horse carried under 11st so ignore what happened 12 months ago in this respect. That said, this is also compressed despite 25 runners with only two carrying under 11st once the reserves come out so (a) good luck and (b) don’t focus on the low weights as much as in recent years. SHORT LIST FORTY FOOT TOM FLYING LIGHT TEN BOB BRUNSTON CONCLUSION This is a nightmare so I suggest keeping stakes to a minimum but jockeyship could be important in this conditional riders’ race on this testing ground in a big field and I am a big Adrian Heskin fan so I would look twice at his mount FORTY FOOT TOM. Big things were predicted for him after he won on his bumper debut by 24 lengths but he has never won since in 13 attempts. That bumper win did come on heavy ground so he handles this surface but he has also failed on it a few times since. Genuine good ground probably caught him out last time at the Easter Fairyhouse Meeting but he had previously shown a return to form when only beaten half a length in a big field on testing ground which also coincided with the only time Heskin has ridden him. The John Queally-trained FLYING LIGHT arrives here fresh after just one start this season when a good second last month in a 16-runner maiden hurdle and is lightly raced full stop having only his sixth career start. This is also his handicap debut so you never know and he should tighten up for his first run in 409 days when second last time out with seven lengths back to the third. He did flash his tail though. Colm Murphy’s TEN BOB in the colours of J P McManus hasn’t run for 5½ months but he too is lightly raced so open to more improvement than most and he does have a heavy-ground win to his name. McManus’ horses have had a fantastic run in the big spring Festivals at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and you would have thought he has held some back for Punchestown. BRUNSTON is an interesting contender for Brendan Powell senior and junior. His jockey is undoubtedly a talent and so can his mount be having been rated in the 90s on the Flat at his best. He hasn’t run over hurdles since December 1st but he has been racing on the level since then so this is an interesting move but his lack of heavy ground form is the concern having looked to have been purposely kept away from it. Rated 88 on the Flat for his last run, using a rule of thumb that you can add 50lbs on over hurdles, he is potentially well treated off 116 here. 4.20 LOUIS FITZGERALD HOTEL HURDLE This is a 2m hurdle for 4yos that have not won more than once over timber which Solwhit won four years ago before two wins for the Jessica Harrington stable and then David Pipe’s Street Entertainer 12 months ago. SHORT LIST LOCK ARD UN BEAU MATIN DYSIOS CONCLUSION UN BEAU MATIN is the one with the sexy profile having won his only hurdles start inFrancehaving won two of his previous three runs on the Flat and represents Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown Stud on his debut for new connections. He could be very good so he has to be short list material but there is a danger he could start on the short side. As such, LOCK ARD may be better value for Mullins and Walsh. He made no mistake at odds-on on his second hurdles start having started off his hurdling career in a Grade 2 event when a respectable fourth beaten six lengths. His win came over 2m4f but he is expected to better at today’s trip of 2m. The former Luca Cumani-trained DYSIOS was a 100/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle and was outclassed finishing in the ruck on Good ground but this could be more his cup of tea having previously won nicely on much slower ground like he will meet here and the runner-up franked that form by winning next time. Dysios could be the best each-way play here. The last time we saw Soliwery, he was pulled up in the Fred Winter but I do respectHenderson’s runners at this meeting. 4.55 IRISH DAILY MIRROR WAR OF ATTRITION NOVICES’ HURDLE This is the fifth running of this Grade 1 novices’ hurdle over three miles (effectively the Punchestown version of the Albert Bartlett) so it is still developing and should make its way into the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide next year as we will have five races to work from for a trends-based angle. In four runnings so far, we have had two shock winners at 33/1 and 16/1 and with heavy ground and three miles being a punishing mix for novices at the end of the season, don’t be surprised if get a third. SHORT LIST JETSON MARASONNIEN IPSOS DU BERLAIS CONCLUSION The trip will be no problem to JETSON who won the Leopardstown Pertemps Final Qualifier back in January and missing the cut for that Cheltenham Festival handicap may prove to be a blessing in disguise. He returned in a 22-runner handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and only found one too good but I didn’t think his 7lbs claimer gave him the best ride that day and Robbie Power takes over today. He stays, acts on the ground and arrives here in great form so he has to run well for me. Sous Les Cieux won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle but he has disappointed me in his three subsequent starts notably in theNeptunelast time out where he looked plain slow, hence why they are probably upping him in trip yet again. First-time blinkers suggest they think it could be mental though. Either way, I can let him pass. At the likely prices I think his stablemate MARASONNIEN is more interesting. I thought he was committed too early in the back straight when he was caught close home by the re-opposing My Murphy (3lbs better off today so respected) last time out and he should stay fine with a better-timed ride and he certainly handles testing ground. He has always had a biggish reputation at Willie Mullins’ yard but has yet to fulfil it and I have sneaky feeling he will run a big race here.SeaOfThunderwas disappointing in the Albert Bartlett where he was a leading fancy and I would worry about him on this testing ground. He also looked ultra fit atCheltenhambordering on running up light so I question whether we have seen the best of him this season. IPSOS DU BERLAIS in the same Gigginstown silks was another to run disappointingly in the Albert Bartlett but the ground wouldn’t have been as testing as he likes on that occasion. He ran much better when fourth in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in first time blinkers but I think the key to him is a real test of stamina so three miles on this testing ground is just that so I see him plugging on providing that Aintree run two weeks ago has not left its mark. 5.30 TOTE.COM PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP I hope I’m not the only person that has a problem with the media referring to this as simply the Gold Cup. Anyway, this race which was known as the Guinness Gold Cup at the time of the Aintree & Punchestown Festivals Betting Guide going to print has attracted zero horses that contested the Gold Cup so we don’t have to concern ourselves with that race as a guide (Quel Esprit was pulled out in the morning on Gold Cup day) but the John Durkan Memorial Chase run over 2m4f here back in December and won by Rubi Light has very much been the key home guide suggesting an affinity with the course is a big positive featuring six of the last 13 winners, four of which completed the double so no surprise to see Rubi Light here and he will adore the ground. The big question though is whether he will stay in the ground. Seven of the last eight Irish-trained winners had won at Punchestown before which is also a plus point for Follow The Plan, Magnanimity, Noble Prince and Quel Esprit plus the two British raiders, Captain Chris and Quantitativeeasing. The winner to miss out in the previous eight years on that course winning stat was last year’s 20/1 winner, Follow The Plan, who is back to defend his title and who is making a habit of creating shock wins in big prizes having also won the Betfred Bowl at Aintree at 50/1 earlier in the month. In fact, Follow The Plan has won seven times under Rules from 30 starts and never at shorter than 10/1. Now there is a horse that was worth following blindly! It is also worth noting that both winners of the Betfred Bowl, which he won with a degree of comfort despite being 50/1, to run here have won. Three of the last ten winners contested this race last season (another positive for Follow The Plan) and the other key Irish race is the Lexus Chase which has thrown up three of the last nine winners and was won in convincing style by the sadly-departed subsequent Gold Cup winner, Synchronised who beat Rubi Light with Magnanimity and Follow The Plan behind. Kauto Star couldn’t recuperate in time at the age of 11 from a hard run in last season’s Gold Cup as he was pulled up here having been sent off as the 10/11 favourite. In fact there has been no winner older than eight for eight years which is the statistical negative that Follow The Plan has to overcome. He is only nine though so hardly past it, as is Apt Approach, maybe unlike the 10-year-old Roberto Goldback. The favourite has won seven of the last ten runnings and the same figures apply to horses that had previously won at Grade 1 level. Quel Esprit is favourite at present over Rubi Light and Captain Chris. The British have won three of the last five runnings and are solely represented by the staying-on Ryanair fourth, Captain Chris. A stat that in-running punters might want to take on board is that five of the last six winners were in front as early as five fences from home. I would expect either Rubi Light or Quel Esprit to be in front at this point. SHORT LIST RUBI LIGHT QUEL ESPRIT (FOLLOW THE PLAN) CONCLUSION Having won at the course before when he won the John Durkan which has been an excellent guide and also ran second in another good guide in the Lexus Chase, RUBI LIGHT could be the one to beat here. He found faster ground against him in the Ryanair but he is a machine on a testing surface inIrelandand he could easily run these ragged on this heavy ground if he truly stays. That is the big sticking point as the jury remains out after his Lexus second to an extent but he was second to the future Gold Cup winner and beat a real stayer in Quito De La Roque (though I suspectQuitowas below his best). QUEL ESPRIT should love this ground. He won a poor renewal of the Irish Hennessy where his stride was shortening at the end but this small field could help him fully stay. I am not sure he will be able to lead Rubi Light but I would be surprised if this pair didn’t force the pace from half-way in a race where prominent racers have a great record and they should also start in the first two in the betting in as well. My feeling is that Quel Esprit will start favourite and the market leader has a very good record so he has to make the short list. Last year’s shock winner FOLLOW THE PLAN is one year older than ideal hence the brackets around his name in the short list as he does have a statistic to overcome but it can be argued he makes up for that having contested the right races, notably the Betfred Bowl which he won with comfort and it is noteworthy that the only two winners of that race at Aintree to run here have both won. There are two weeks less between Aintree and Punchestown this season than last year however which doesn’t give him long to recover. Many eyebrows were raised when Noble Prince was declared for this race over 3m1frather than the Boylesports Champion Chase at 2m as he is anything but a certain stayer and even more so on very soft ground. He hardly comes here in good form either after seeming hating second of the Ryanair and was laboured in his previous run. He certainly wouldn’t be a trends horse. Captain Chris looks the pick of the British trained pair in a race they have fared well in and he won at this meeting last year. Third in the King George was the last time we saw him on a right-handed course which is the way he wants to go and, judged by the way he was running on strongly over 2m5f in the Ryanair, this longer trip could also improve him and he does have a spring horse profile. 6.05 BETCHRONICLE.COM CHAMPION INH FLAT RACE Of the six bumpers staged at the Punchestown Festival, this is the one which carries the most kudos being as it is one of only two Grade 1 bumpers to be staged in Britain and Ireland. Champagne Fever won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper and seven winners have attempted to add this race of which two have ‘won’ – Cousin Vinny and Dunguib, although the latter was later disqualified on a technicality. The Weatherbys Champion Bumper at Cheltenham has been the key guide as you would expect highlighting ten winners since 1992 of which eight finished in the first six at the Festival and four horses from that contest face each other again here; Champagne Fever (1st), New Year’s Eve (2nd), Jezki (8th) and Clonbannon Lad (15th). The Brits have won two of the last three runnings of the Weatherbys Champion Bumper having lost 13 of the previous 17 runnings so things are looking on the up for them in this division and they don’t have a bad record in Ireland’s top bumper either having won it four times since 1997 (and also supplied four seconds) despite being heavily outnumbered in comparison to how they fared in the home match when the numbers were comprehensively in their favour. New Year’s Eve, Melodic Rendezvous and As I Am take their chance this year. Only two winning four-year-olds in the history of this race (but one of those was two years ago and another was beaten a short head last year) but after years of struggling terribly, horses of that age are also faring much better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper of late (New Year’s Eve nearly supplied a second winning four-year-old in three years back in March following Cue Card in 2010). This suggests the days of taking on four-year-olds are numbered. Eleven of the last 13 winners had run no more than three times (10 from 13 had Dunguib not been later disqualified) which statistically is a niggle if you fancy Champagne Fever, as it is for Clonbannon Lad, Mozoltov, Shu Lewis and As I Am. The trainers to note have been Noel Meade (Fickle Fortune) having won three of the last seven runnings and last year’s winning handler, Willie Mullins, who has notched up three winners and three seconds and runs Champagne Fever and Mozoltov. Also respect a filly or mare as three have won from few runners since 1994 and three take their chance; As I Am, Fickle Fortune and Summer Star, the latter pair receiving a handy 17lbs from Champagne Fever with a combined sex and age allowance. SHORT LIST NEW YEAR’S EVE FICKLE FORTUNE VENTURE CAPITAL SUMMER STAR CONCLUSION Four-year-olds are no longer the weak link in top bumper races and they could be gunning for a hat-trick in this race with more luck and NEW YEAR’S EVE, Fickle Fortune and Summer Star give them three decent chances here. New Year’s Eve only went down by just over a length in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper to Champagne Fever and can reverse placings on this course that might suit him better. Being 2lbs better off with the winner might also help and he is the pick of the British challenge that have done okay in this race down the years. Champagne Fever had a very hard race atCheltenham(harder than the second in my view as was always prominent) and has also run more often that most winners of this prize hence his omission from the short list. Noel Meade is gunning for a fifth win in this race (and a fourth in eight years) with FICKLE FORTUNE. Fillies have over-performed in this race as well and she was a very easy winner of her only bumper at Down Royal three months ago. Jezki and SUMMER STAR have both won two of their three bumpers and, although the former ran a highly respectable eighth in Champion Bumper, like Fickle Fortune the latter also receives a fillies’ allowance in addition to a age allowance and that combined concession on testing ground is not to be sniffed at so she makes the short list. VENTURE CAPITAL has only had one start and represents the Philip Fenton yard whose Dunguib won this race before he was disqualified weeks later with an illegal substance found in his sample. I like the fact that they have kept him back for this race since he impressed at Fairyhouse back in December and there was a big word for him before he made his winning debut and in plenty of style to boot. 6.40 GUINNESS HANDICAP CHASE The most valuable handicap chase of the meeting and taking place over 2m4f. Willie Mullins has trained five of the last eight winners including the last three with J’y Vole, Polmar and the ill-fated Scotsirish and he relies on Raptor this time. Paul Nolan took this race in successive years with Torduff Boy (2002 and 2003) and his Kymandjen only found one too good two years later and he runs Westmeath from out of the handicap. Scotsirish defied the weight stats last season when successful off top weight thus becoming the first winner to carry more than 11st 6lbs since the Aidan O’Brien-trained Idiots Venture in 1997 (who had finished third in a Grade 1 the previous day). Since 1997, nine of the 14 winners carried under 11st and, in the last seven seasons alone, 23 of the 28 top-four places have gone the way of horses carrying less than 11st so it really was some performance for Scotsirish to win off 11st 10lbs last season. On that basis, I am looking to the under 11st horses again soTranquilSeaand Fiendish Flame are not for me. Following novices in handicap at thebig springFestivals is never a bad thing and they have an eye-catching record winning five of the last 13 runnings. Foildubh, Raptor and Westmeath represent novices this time. And don’t be concerned if your fancy failed to finish in the first three last time out as 11 of the last 12 winners failed to occupy a top-three slot on their previous outing yet 11 of the last 15 winners started between second and fourth-favourite. SHORT LIST RAPTOR CARRIGMARTIN WESTMEATH CONCLUSION Being a lightly-weighted novice trained by Willie Mullins who has supplied the last three winners of this race then RAPTOR has to be of interest. He isn’t easy to predict though but he does like a cut in the ground and was running a good race until falling 3 out in a Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Pulled up last time out in the Irish National, he is a course and distance winner and this is far less competitive of course and today could be his big day. CARRIGMARTIN won a competitive handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out off a mark of 116. This won’t be so easy back over fences off a 16lbs higher mark and he was a disappointing favourite in this race last year but he did travel very well last time so is clearly at the top of his game right now and I envisage a big run. WESTMEATH is a novice hailing from a yard with a good record in the race so is worth his place as the third horse for the short list. He hasn’t shown much since making a winning chase debut to be honest but this first step up in trip to 2m4f could help. 7.15 ATTHERACES INH FLAT RACE A 18-runner bumper for 5-7 year-olds that have never won under Rules (point-to-points are okay) so you need your brains testing if you want to get involved too heavily in this one. SHORT LIST KAKI DE LA PREE OPERATING DANCDERS DILEMMA CLARA BEL LA CONCLUSION Nicky Henderson has done well on his Punchestown raids including in the bumpers so his KAKI DE LA PREE is likely to be a leading fancy under Katie Walsh having won his only point-to-point and is owned by Michael Buckley. OPERATING represents another yard with a good record in bumpers at this meeting (Jessica Harrington) and boasts the second best bumper form according to figures. Twice runner-up in as many starts, he should give his backers another decent run. Top rated is Dermot Weld’s DANCERS DILEMMA who has also been placed in both bumpers and to two good horses, firstly Loosen My Load back in 2009 and then to this season’s Champion Bumper third, Pique Sous, on his only other start back in February. John Kiely is another yard noted for bumpers so his unraced CLARA BEL LA could be interesting especially as he has a real knack with fillies and mares.

[Edberg]

Re: jump racing wednesday 25th april « 4:20 » Punchestown (IRE) WED 25 APR 2012 LOUIS FITZGERALD HOTEL HURDLE (4yo) Winner €14,625 Soft To Heavy 2m Number of runners: 11 THEGONDOLIER 4pts to win @ 14/1 bog (Boylesports) This is not gonna be an easy win at all (if any win could be predicted as an easy one) but my high confidence in this shot comes from the very good impression I've got from this horse in his starts so far and from the big value of his current price. Thegondolier is an interesting 4yo by Captain Rio who won once on the flat (7f at Sligo on good to yielding beating horses like Knock Stars who won three times after that race and has reached a rating of 97 being placed in Listed over 6f) when trained by Prendergast. Missed a full year (Oct 2010 - Oct 2011) but after his debut over hurdles over today's C&D he soon won 8 days later at Thurles and did it in impressive style beating with ease horses like Blue Cannon who won next time out and Solar Exhibition (9/10 favourite of that race) who has collected 3 seconds and a third before winning last time out with his new training of Tim Vaughan and this former multiple flat winner (3 wins in 2011 in six starts) is highly regarded (especially if will learn how to jump better) and already rated 120+. On his next start Thegondolier finished 4th at Cork behind horses like Sam Bass and Burrenbridge Lodge (130+ rated) and after that race changed hands and went to the Shark Hanlon's yard. His debut with the new trainer came over today's C&D when he finished second behind One Cool Shabra and was 5th again behind Sam Bass at Fairyhouse in a Grade 3 on his last start in December 2011. That performance was a bit disappointing as he travelled well but found nothing in the final stage of the race and so Hanlon gave him a good rest during the winter. Back in action two weeks ago Thegondolier shaped very well finishing 4th in a Grade 3 at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival in a race won by Ballynacree over Gorgeous Sixty with One Coll Shabra behind in 5th, Leroy Parker well behind in 6th as well as Arnaud and Edeymi (protagonists at the Cheltenham Festival in their previous starts) that finished 8th and 11th. That was a nice step up after a break and Thegondolier was staying on again in the closing stages having lost touch before 3out. Today he gets a 7lb claimer on board (Brian Hayes is very experienced and won 11 races this season) and if able to build on that performance he could go very close here. The horses to beat are mainly two: Willie Mullins-trained Loch Ard and Gordon Elliott's newcomer Un Beau Matin. Loch Ard won in nice style his last start but beat absolutely nothing that day and on his debut over hurdles he finished 4th well beaten by Burrenbridge Lodge, Minsk and Bat Masterson in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse in February. On a line through Burrenbridge Lodge he has to be closely matched with my selection but of course the big suggestion given as usual by the big stable with Ruby Walsh on board are giving a price almost 5 times bigger to my selection. What could be anything is the French Un Beau Matin who won twice on the flat in France in 2011 before making a nice debut in March at Auteuil when he won a Listed over hurdles for horses who had never raced before over hurdles and fences (was a bit lucky because his main rival fell at the last flight). After that performance the 4yo grey by Sagamix was purchased by the Gigginstown House Stud and this will be his debut with the new training of Gordon Elliott. As written this horse could be anything but it has first to prove it as that win could be well flattering his actual value and Elliott's yard are not firing at the moment and the trainer has a very bad record at Punchestown. Among the others there are a few interesting horses. Nicky Henderson saddles Soliwery who finished second on his second start over hurdles in France (PU on his debut) in October and confirmed that placement when making his British debut at Sandown in January. The horse who won that race has been well beaten twice afterwards and Soliwery was pulled up after a couple of flights in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival so it has a lot to prove even if he gets 7lb from the horses who already won a race here. Tugboat is a son of Galileo who costed 300,000gns as a foal and won a race on the flat at Navan in October. This will be his debut over hurdles for the training of O'Grady (trained by Oxx on the flat) and of course has to be of interest but has to be watched first. Dysios is a former flat winner (trained by Luca Cumani) and won a race at Navan on his second start over hurdles before finishing second last (100/1 shot) in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last month. Could be flattered by his rating of 123 and was beaten 37L by Ballynacree on his debut at Gowran and that performance puts him well behind my selection. Leroy Parker won a maiden at Fairyhouse in November and came back in the same race of Thegondolier (Grade 3) at Fairyhouse two weeks ago finishing 6th. That was his first run after a 5-month lay-off and the Noel Meade-trained 4yo could well be still able to improve but was well beaten by my selection and looked a bit one-paced also on the flat (won a race at Sligo over 10f in August) and seems more able to snatch a place here than aim to the first prize. Liberty's Gift finished 3L behind Dysios at Navan and could improve but has a lot to find to win a race like this at the moment. So if Un Beau Matin is not that special my selection has got a very good chance and a super price to support it.