Jump racing ~ Saturday 21st April

[Stevet1859]

2:50 Ayr: Local Hero 1pt e/w 16/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Local Hero could have a better chance than his odds imply after looking at the trends produced by Racecaller. Steve Gollings has already trained Royal Shakespeare to place in this so should know what is required. Looking through Local Hero's form he ran well in the Triumph Hurdle to finish just over ten lengths behind Zarkandar. That form has worked out well all season. This season Local Hero was no match for Simonsig, yet there is no shame in that, as Simonsig has been as impressive as any hurdler this year. Interstingly, all seven horses that run in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree the previous year as Local Hurdle did, have made a place in this. In some ways, that stat has one of those odd coincidence rings to it, and it may not pay to put too much faith in it. However, adding to that stat, the form of Local Hero, the fact that some of the big name trainers don't have a great record in this race and Local Hero being lightly raced with a bit of scope he does look overpriced. 3:25 Ayr: Merigo 2pts e/w 10/1 Boylesports (1/4 1234) If there was ever a case for horses for courses then Merigo is it. He has a outstanding record at Ayr and in this race. Merigo won this race off 127 and put up an even better performance to finish second off 142 behind Beshabar last year. The good thing about taking an early price about Merigo is that he is not ground dependent. If the rains do come the softer ground will not be a problem. Merigo is also in good form having worn last time out here. Trainer Andrew Parker's last couple of runners have performed well too, which all points to a good showing from Merigo.

2:15 Ayr: Pure Faith 1pt win 6/1 Betfred Its possible to conclude that Pure Faith was flattered by splitting Albertas Run and Master Minded at Aintree. particularly as this was early in the season and those big named chasers were only tuning up for their campaigns at the time. However he has performed with credit in the face of some difficult tasks since and this represents his best chance for some time. Others may improve past Pure Faith, however on what all the runners have acheived so far, Pure Faith looks worth a go.

[Edberg]

Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 21st April 1:40 » Ayr SAT 21 APR 2012 PURVIS MARQUEES RACING EXCELLENCE "HANDS AND HEELS" FINALE HANDICAP HURDLE (CONDITIONALS/AMATEURS) (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-125) Winner £5,848 Good 2m4f Number of runners: 14 BENE LAD 2pts to win @ 7/1 bog (Ladbrokes) Bene Lad is a 10yo gelding trained by Jim Goldie who collected 5 wins and 7 seconds in 29 starts in his career so far. Over hurdles is record is 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 14 starts between January 2008 and February 2011 and his last win over hurdles came just over this C&D in January 2011 when he won a handicap off 87 on good ground. Bene Lad finished 3rd in his next start over hurdles in an handicap on soft ground at Newcastle off 94 and in March he started again (he had already collected 2 wins and two 4th places in 2010) his career over fences where he's improved a lot during the last 12 months collecting 1 win and 5 second places in 9 starts and improving from a mark of 95 to his actual mark of 111. His best ever results came all in his last five months. Bene Lad finished second behind Douglas Julian at Newcastle at the end of November (2m4f, good to soft) and Douglas Julian won again after that success and is now rated 19lb higher. Time Out finished behind Bene Lad that day and the James Ewart-trained gelding has won his next 4 starts over fences improving 19lb. That race has produced a lot winners: Playing The Field, Storm Surge, Et Maintenat, O Crotaigh (3 wins) and Corkage (3 wins and improved 28lb in the process). Bene Lad confirmed his own improvement finishing a nose behind Tyrone House at Wetherby on Boxing Day (2m5f soft) off 97 with the pair well clear of the remainder and 16L behind finished Bocciani who won next time out and has added a very good second over hurdles too improving his rating in that sphere up to 133 (122 over fences). On the 2nd of January Bene Lad raced again on his favourite track (here at Ayr where he had collected his last win one year before and his first placements in 2008) and finally he snatched a win and an easy one (off 97) with most of the horses in behind confirming that form with good efforts in defeat afterwards and the horse (Nelson Du Ronceray) that finished 6th that day (44L behind Bene Lad) able to win next time out. Upped 11lb for that win and the previous close 2nd Bene Lad didn't stop his improvements when he raced last time out at Kelso over 2m1f (good) finishing 2nd 3.5L behind Mr Syntax. That was a very good effort in defeat as he was racing for the first time ever off such a high mark (108) in a tough Class 3 (0-135) handicap company and the trip was too short (all his last three wins over 2m4f,2m7f and his previous three seconds all over 2m4f) moreover he was back after that success at Ayr and a break of 82-days had probably taken a bit of sparkling form off since he had never been better than 4th after a break longer than 2 months. Nonetheless he was ridden by Timmy Murphy with an attacking style and went on with a circuit to go and jumped very well only to miss out in the closing stages. That effort should have put him spot on for this race and back over hurdles even if it's always a concern the switch between the two categories he can race off 99 (rated 111 over fences now) and if he can translate that form over his favourite track and distance he has a very big chance to win a race like this. Brendan Powell is probably the best conditional jockey in UK at the moment and the young jockey won a nice race at Exeter two days ago upping his record to 28 wins (210 rides) in this first full professional season. Also the trainer Jim Goldie is in good shape at the moment having saddled 1 winner, 2 seconds and 3 thirds with his last 8 raiders during the last 10 days and he's had 16 winners (13 over hurdles) in the NH sphere this season (1 on the flat too) and all his wins came on the Scottish tracks (3 here at Ayr, 2 with 14 runners over hurdles). Bene Lad and Knight Valliant are the only two to have won a race over this C&D and the only two to have won a race here at Ayr in a kind of race. Enfant De Lune is the top weight and comes out of a nice success at Ffos Las 6 days ago. He has to carry a 7lb penalty and has always been racing at his best when fresh (that win came out a 4-month lay-off). He has also a young and still pretty unexperienced jockey on board. Captain Paulie goes back hurdling after a long series of pretty disappointing efforts over fences and even if he won twice over hurdles in 2011 in Ireland, his last win was off 111 and he's now rated 119 over fences and still 124 over hurdles so this looks a very tough task both on current form (over fences) and on his previous best form (over hurdles). Majestic Mayhem won last time out in good style at Hexham but didn't finish a race in his previous 4 starts this season and seems to perform just at Hexham (2 wins, 2 seconds and 1 fourth in 5 starts over that track). He has been upped 8lb for that win and moreover he has a very unexperienced jockey on board. Outrageous Request is one of the most dangerous opponents for my selection. The lightly raced 6yo has been now switched to Lucinda Russell's yard and this could bring more improvements in him. Moreover he is only 6 and has had just 6 starts over hurdles and his best two efforts came in his last two starts when second at Exeter (2m1f, second last start for Philip Hobbs in November) and 4 weeks ago at Hereford (2m1f) when he was a lucky winner (Clarion Call fell at the last when he was already 3L clear of Outrageous Request). The handicapper left his mark as it was (120) and the step up in trip could bring more improvements too as he was a decent stayer on flat (won and handicap over 1m6f at Sandown off 76) and he's tried with cheekpieces on for the first time since a first try when still racing on the flat. Very unexperienced jockey on board. Grandioso is the youngest of the group (only 5) and won a nice bumper 16 months ago on his debut when still with Howard Johnson but with Paul Nicholls didn't show anything close to what was expected from him thus far (twice third at his best) and racing off his current mark of 118 was beaten 11L on his second last start and fell on his last start when still going well (had just taken the lead between the 3rd and the 2nd last). Good jockey on board and if he can build on that unlucky performance he could be one of the main dangers. Pinerolo is a lightly raced 6yo who improved a lot during the last couple of months together with most of his stablemates as the Sue Smith's yard have been in super form in this calendar year (4 winners last week and 45 this season). Pinerolo won a class 4 handicap at Carlisle in good style 4 weeks ago and finished second (a neck behind Grandads Horse) in a novice handicap at Haydock (2m4f, good) two weeks ago. He's gone up 3lb more since but with the experienced Jonathan England on board (6 wins all for Sue Smith this season) he could have still more to offer. Cavite Eta won his last start (was second in his second last out) but has gone up 10lb for that success and the trip could be another concern (won over 2m). Civil Unrest is still maiden after 8 starts under rules (twice second his best efforts) and last time out (19 days ago) at Kelso finished last of 9 117+L behind the winner (3rd but beaten 37L the time before at Doncaster). A lot to prove. Highrate is another Sue Smith-trained horse carrying the colours of Trevor Hemmings. Twice second (first time in a bumper one year ago beaten 27L by Darlan) and twice third (second last start over 2m7f at Kelso but beaten 13.5L by the winner) he's never looked a likely winner in any of his start so far and still makes too many mistakes (F and PU in his third last and last out). Beaten favourite last time out. Knight Valliant, as written above, is the only other C&D winner but he finished 7.5L behind Pinerolo last time out and 33L behind Markadam on his second last start and has been mainly disappointing (only once second) since his win over C&D oneyear ago (won by a neck off 99 and races off 105 today). Very difficult to fancy. Markadam won twice both over 2m4f over hurdles this year (on good and soft). Last time out 3m was too much for him but he is still 13lb higher than his last winning mark and didn't look able to improve that much. Pete has got Lucy Alexander on board and that's a big plus but after his two wins in a row back in September and October failed to finish better than 4th in his last three starts but both. He's now only 2lb higher than his last win but both wins came at 2m1f and didn't look to cry out for some furlongs more. Murtagh/Alexander teamed up for a nice winner two days ago and the duo has to be respected especially in this kind of race. Turbolinas won on Boxing Day (by a neck off 94) but has collected 44L, 33L in his next two starts and has been pulled up last time out. A lot to prove. So Grandioso, Pinerolo, Outrageous Request, Pete and Enfant De Lune seem the toughest rivals here but if Bene Lad can translate his form over fences back to these lower obstacles he stands a big chance off this mark on his favourite track and distance and with the best jockey on board (quite important in a conditionals/amateurs race and even more since it's a "hands and heels" competition).