Jump racing ~ Saturday 14th April

[Stevet1859]

1:45 Aintree: Baby Shine 1pt e/w 18/1 Bet365 (1/4 123) Simonsig is going to be hard to beat however Baby Shine who did not run at Cheltenham looks capable of stepping up on her already useful form and could make a place at decent odds. Baby Shine will be at home on either good ground or a softer surface if it eases from any rain. Leighton Aspell is reunited with Baby Shine and she looks capable of improving on her run behind the 142 rated Its A Gimme at Southwell last time out. 3:25 Aintree: My Boy Paddy 1pt win 16/1 Sportingbet & Carrickboy 1pt win 20/1 Boylesports My Boy Paddy looks to be progressing and may not need heavy ground to be competitive. Looking down the list of some of his sires Accordian's offspring, they include Flagship Uberalles, Albertas Run Weird Al and even Follow The Flag. There is good reason to hope he can be effective on a goodish surface and he could be overpriced here. Lightly raced My Boy Paddy could have more to give and off a light weight could go well. Carrickboy was probably up against it at Cheltenham behind Hunt Ball although he ran a rock solid race there. Last week he was pulled up after being hampered. Its a slightly unusual preparation however prior to Cheltenham Carrickboy had looked progressive and put up a decent round of jumping to beat Alpha Way at Hereford. It could be that this extra distance is in Carrickboy's favour and at the odds he looks worth an interest. 4:15 Aintree: Quiscover Fontaine 1pt e/w 66/1 Bet Victor (1/4 123456), Treacle 1pt e/w 20/1 Paddy Power (1/4 12345), & On His Own 2pts win 20/1 William Hill Quiscover Fontaine looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind. He has been kept to hurdles this year and that form is nothing special although he did pick up a win at Leopardstown from Pires over two miles. However, the very interesting piece of form is Quiscover Fontaine's run at Fairyhouse in the Irish Grand National last year. That race was won by Organisedconfusion who lines up today as does the third Sunnyhillboy and in fifth was A New Story who ran well again in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham. Quiscover Fontaine meets his Fairyhouse rivals on better terms and having been running over much shorter distances, you have to wonder if Willie Mullins used that race as a fact finding exercise to see if Quiscover Fontaine would stay. He appeared to, and off a similar mark here, there is every chance he could run a big race. Treacle lines up here as a horse who has not followed the hurdle route to protect his mark, however his form took a timely boost yesterday when the fourth in Irish Hennessy Gold Cup, Follow The Plan, won the Betfred Bowl, and while it would be wrong to read too much in to that, its certainly a positive. In that race Treacle was closing giving every indication this marathon trip will be in his favour. Prior to that Hennessy run Treacle also put up a fine performance when narrowly beaten by Cross Appeal in December again staying on strongly at the death. Looks the sort to give a good account. On His Own looks an interesting contender. First, barring something unfortunate happening he will run and although perhaps a little less experienced than is preferable he looks capable of running a big race based on his win in the Thyestis at Gowran Park in January. He joined Willie Mullins from Howard Johnson and while brought down on his first outing for his new trainer he made no mistake at the second time of asking. In the hands of the Irish master trainer there is a strong chance of more improvement to come. There is no telling if On His Own will take to the National fences, yet his prominent running style will give him every chance of of steering clear of trouble. On his Own seems to have slipped under the radar a touch. Weighing everything up, he will either run very well (hopefully) or poorly, so don't see him as an each way proposition.

[Edberg]

Re: Jump racing ~ Saturday 14th April « 3:30 » Tramore (IRE) SAT 14 APR 2012 TRAMORE RACECOURSE MEMBERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE (4yo+ 80-95) Winner €4,830 Yielding 2m5f Number of runners: 16 SEE DOUBLE YOU 4pts to win @ 4/1 bog (Paddy Power) In the Grand National Day with good flat racings on the AW at Lingfield and on the turf at Newcastle I found my best bet of the day in Ireland in a poor looking handicap hurdle. See Double You is a 9yo who started his PTP career in 2008 winning a Maiden PTP in May on good ground (easy win) but found too hard to reproduce that kind of effort under rules in 2008 and 2009. After a break the horse has come back on PTP and has won twice of the last three starts (losing against horses like Count Salazar in between) and last time out won in impressive style (18 Feb 2012). Earlier this month he was due to race at Thurles and was heavily backed before connection decided to withdraw him for the quickening ground (both his last wins came on heavy ground even if his maiden win in 2008 was on good). No problem with the ground today as there has been enough rain this week and the ground is officially yielding and if able to reproduce the form of his latest PTP wins this should be a very easy task off a mark of 85 with the jockey claiming 7lb (McNally was his rider in both his PTP wins during the last 11 months). Volkis O'Blue won over C&D but off an 11lb lower mark and even if the 7yo trained by Slattery ran well last time out at Cork he was beaten 9L and upped 1 more lb this is gonna be a tough call at least for winning purpose. Bluebell Princess finished 4th at Clonmel 5 weeks ago on her handicap debut and off 1lb lower could give a good account. Heffernan-trained Up The Girls with the good 5lb claimer Jones on board is probably the main danger as she's been a very consistent mare this year and even if she finished second behind Volkis O'Blue both here and at Punchestown she is now weighted to turn the tables on ground and trip which is likely to suit her. Those are the 3 main dangers but as written above I can't see my selection beaten if he has a clear round of jumps and can reproduce the form of his PTP wins.