Jump Racing 10th April (Fairyhouse)

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4:00 » Fairyhouse (IRE) TUE 10 APR 2012 WEATHERBYS IRELAND GSB HURDLE (GRADE 3) (4yo) Winner €18,525 Good To Soft 2m Number of runners: 14 EDEYMI 4pts to win @ 9/4 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Interesting Grade 3 for 4yo hurdlers with Gigginstown House Stud represented by 3 horses and two of them seem to be the main actors of this race. Davy Russell will be on board of Arnaud and he's usually the first ride of the Michael O'Leary's horses but I'll stick with Edeymi here as he has my favourite Irish rider (Andrew Lynch) on board and this son of Barathea seems to me a step ahead of his stablemate at the moment as shown for example by their last performance at the Cheltenham Festival where Edeymi finished second and Arnaud fifth in the Fred Winter won by Une Artiste and that day Arnaud was getting 3lb from Edeymi while they're gonna race with the same weight today. The horse chosen by Russell (Arnaud) won a maiden at Limerick (heavy) few days after Christmas but had been a bit disappointing in his next two starts and therefore he was just a 50/1 shot for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival 4 weeks ago where he was a bit of surprise but still finished well behind my selection in the end (the two horses are now splitted by 6lb in the official rating). The horse (Edeymi) trained by Martin (who finally came back among the winners with two nice wins in the last two days) had already a better curriculum going into the Fred Winter as he had won his maiden at Clonmel (soft) just 4 weeks before and had been improving in each and every start after his debut at Gowran in December in a race won by One Cool Shabra ahead of Bat Masterson with Edeymi third. One Cool Shabra had made his debut over hurdles in August and was way ahead of Edeymi that day but things have turned around now and the son of One Cool Cat has also to carry a 7lb penalty in this race having won 3 times. Besides the two main chances of Gigginstown the main dangers could be the two horses carrying the colours of JP McManus (Sportsmaster and Ballynacree) as Noel Meade lines up with three horses but none of them seems a 130+ rated horse (Edeymi is rated 135 atm) and the only runner of Willie Mullins (Gorgeous Sixty) has been more than disappointing both in the Fred Winter and in his other two starts in Ireland since moving from France. Sportsmaster is the choice of AP McCoy who has been riding out of skin in this Easter Festival always carrying the colours of JP McManus. The horse beat subsequent Group 1 winner Hisaabaat at Naas in January but Hisaabaat improved a lot after that race beating the same Sportsmaster by more than 8L in their next start at Leopardstown (Group 1) while the O'Grady-trained gelding failed not only in that race at Leopardstown but also in his next start at Naas when beaten in 3rd as a 7/4 favourite and at the Fred Winter at Cheltenham where he finished 20th with Edeymi second and Arnaud fifth. Very difficult to give him a chance to reverse that form even if there will be a different ground and a different track today and even if JP McManus and AP McCoy have been the dominant duo at this Easter Festival at Fairyhouse so far. Ballynacree is the other horse that will be wearing the green and gold striped silk and he looked more interesting than Sportsmaster as less exposed after a nice win at Gowran Park in February when a 40/1 chance under a 7lb conditional jockey and a close second in his only other start at Naas when beaten only 3L by the 135-rated Lord Windermere.

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Re: Jump Racing 10th April (Fairyhouse) « 4:30 » Fairyhouse (IRE) TUE 10 APR 2012 JOHN FOWLER MEMORIAL EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND MARES CHASE (GRADE 3) (5yo+) Winner €21,125 Good To Soft 2m4f Number of runners: 10 SPECIAL TOKEN 1pt Each Way @ 16/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) This is my first EW bet of the season but I don't know if Special Token is good enough to win a race like this but surely she is overpriced and could well finish in the frame. This 7yo mare trained and owned by James O'Keeffe has been very consistent this season and improved a lot the standard of her performances over hurdles where she is rated 97 (119 over fences). She won twice (once demoted to second), finished 2nd four times and twice 4th in 9 starts over fences and her only two bad efforts came on good ground (6th and 4th way behind the winners). She is only rated 119 and looks quite exposed too but she has been improving a lot this winter and if the weather helps her she could be again in the frame at least and even if the ground is still officially good to soft there is a bit more rain forecasted for the afternoon so it could well turn to be softer than expected. Special Token made her debut in Graded company last time out at Limerick (heavy) where she ran a blinder finishing second well only after the last fence by Knockfierna (clear at the end) who is a top mare now rated 135 over fences who has won already 3 Grade events chasing and 2 over hurdles. The two finished well ahead of the remainder and that's been surely the best ever performance of Special Token. She was beaten 35L by Shop Dj (strong favourite of this race) at Thurles last October but that was on good ground and she has improved a lot since that race. Of course Shop Dj had her good efforts too (also over hurdles and on the AW) in the meanwhile but she could be strongly penalized by the soft ground and she had a tough race at the Cheltenham Festival 4 weeks ago (5th behind Quevega in the Mares' Hurdle) as she usually needs a bit of time to recover from her last effort and she was well beaten by Knockfierna at Cork in her last start over fences 4 months ago and tailed off also at Clonmel in another Grade 3 Chase won by Blazing Tempo in November. The Peter Fahey-trained mare is surely the one to beat on official figures (rated 133 and 142 over hurdles) but at around Evens money it doesn't seem to be a good value bet with all these question marks. An alternative could be Belle Brook, current second favourite at 5/1, as the Michael Cullen-trained 8yo is less exposed than her rivals (only 6 races over fences so far) but achieved already a rating of 124 after beating Special Token in the stewards' room at Cork in January and following that first win with a close second behind Knockfierna at Thurles still in January before falling last time out at Limerick in another Grade 3 won again by Knockfierna with Special Token second as written above. She is surely an interesting mare still open to improvements but can't be priced 5/1 with Special Token, who beat her before the stewards decided to demote her to the 2nd place at Cork 3 months ago and has a similar profile, at 16/1. Among the others Odonimee stands a good cahnce as she comes here after two easy wins and is the second best rated mare (133) but carries a 3lb penalty for her wins and this is a big step up in grade compared to her last two efforts at Clonmel and Wexford. Banjaxed Girl was a good hurdler in Britain and had a good run in her second last out when second behind Rathlin but was very disappointing last time out and has still a lot to prove imho. So Shop Dj is the deserved favourite but with a couple of big question marks, Belle Brook stands a solid chance but is closely matched with Special Token and Odonimee has to prove her skills in a better company while the other runners don't seem to be anything special and that gives my selection a big chance at these prices to be at least in the frame.