Jumps racing Easter Monday (including Irish national)

[bowles10]

Here are my trends for the irish national posted yesterday in my trends (sadly buried in the systems page these days !:unsure)

IRISH GRAND NATIONAL Monday 4.50 Fairyhouse Some decent looking trends to consider Key trends 15/15 - 11st 4lb or less 12/15 - over 15 career runs 14/15 - LTO Feb - March 11/15 - between 4 & 7 runs that season 13/15 - at least 1 placed effort that season 13/15 - age 7-10 12/15 - won over at least 24f 13/15 - weight under 10st 12lb 10/15 - between 15 - 24 career runs 8/15 - 5+ career wins 6/15 - course winners 4/15 - English trained 1/15 - favs (co fav!) Not a great race for favs with 1 in 15 years & that was a co fav of 3! The weight stat needs to be taken into consideration & removes top weightRoi de mee. LTO stat seems to be a recent run is important along with a placed effort atleast this current season, this removes: Magnamity, Gift of dgab, Aigle d’or,Groody hill, Prince erik, Shakervilz, Cross appeal, Whatuthink, Deal done, Out now, Weighted under 10st 12lb will narrow it down further by removing the following:Osana, Ailee Garde, Catch me, Last of the leaders, Western charmer.

Betvictor 5PTS EW WHODOYOUTHINK 50/1 Betvictor 5PTS EW

So thats 16 out of the race with still 14 to go! The age stat needs looking at closer: Age (Win-Placed-Runners) 6yo: 1-2-9 = 11% 7yo: 2-6-50 = 4% 8yo: 4-7-69 = 6% 9yo: 2-9-61 = 3% 10yo: 1-4-42 = 2% 11yo: 0-1-14 = 0% 12yo+: 0-1-4 = 0% A 6yo won this last year and as you can see, theamount of runners is low so dont discount those in that age bracket. The last 6 have been aged 6-8 so we willconcentrate on those. 36 horses have carried 11-0+ in last 10 years(0-3-36), none have won and only 3 made the places. Record of the top weight is P4PPPPPFFP (0-1-10),only 1 topweight has completed the course in last 10 years. 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 125 -136 The last 10 winners had run in 9 or less handicapchases The shortlist is as follows taking the above intoaccount Four commanders, Start me up, Whodoyouthink, GlamGerry, Raptor Oliver Mckernian has 2 placed horses in 3 attemptsat this race and saddles Whodoyouthink this year. A win at 3m is still a factor to be taken intoaccount which removes Four Commanders, Whodoyouthink, Glam Gerry and Raptorwhich leaves just START ME UP as the final trends selection. I will leave an ew saver on WHODOYOUTHINK also withthe trainers recent record in the race. BETS START ME UP 20/1

[Aidymac]

Re: Jumps racing Easter Monday (including Irish national) *Ninetieth Minute - Fairyhouse 4:50* Course winner twice that can play to it's advantage in this mighty race tomorrow. The last time it ran in a handicap was back in 2009 at Cheltenham where it won the Coral Cup off a mark of 140, and tomorrow it run's in the Grand National off a mark of 135, and coming off the back of a win last time out, it looks very well treated. It's record at Fairyhouse is very impressive, it reads 1-2-3-2-1. Tom Taaffe onloy has the 1 runner tomorrow, this horse and the stable are going well. Andrew Lynch is also probably the most improved Irish jockey at the moment, he is having an unreal year. Decent chance in a very tough race. *0.5 Points e/w @ 10/1 Bet365 BOG*