Sunday 1st April Flat Racing

[RussP]

2nd day of the flat, 1st day of April and 2 bets for me. 2.45 Doncaster Class 4, 7f handicap with a maximum field of 22 runners. Yesterday, I think we say that it was a pace bias more than a draw bias but, if one did exist, it was probably with the low numbers. In 5 handicaps here yesterday, we had winners at 50's, 33's and 25's so I'm continuing the theme and going with a big priced one today, especially with there appearing to be no stand out horse amongst the market leaders: Amazing Amoray (22/1 Bet365 BOG) - Very lightly raced 4yo with just 5 runs to its name. I'm hoping that the horse has matured from 3 to 4 and, if it has, I think its chances are much better than the 22/1 the bookies are suggesting. Trotted up first time up last year, travelling well and then scooting clear inside the final furlong by almost 4L. That was a maiden on good ground over 6f. Was then pitched into handicaps and had 3 attempts off marks of 82. Was made fav for the first of those at Ripon but went off at a stupid pace and ultimately paid the price finishing midfield. Didn't show an awful lot in the other starts either including a midfield run in the Ayr Bronze Cup. However, there's plenty to suggest a return to form today. Mark has eased 3lb, races back in its class after being highly tried lto and is reunited with the jockey who rode such a confident race in its maiden win. I also believe that the fast pace will help and it looked for all the world that an extra furlong would help which is what it gets here. After a winter off, we also need to be sure it will be fit and the fact it won first time out last term is good enough for me. Shrewd trainer indeed, nice draw too where it should get a good tow, are two other positive factors. In an open event, we've more than enough here to suggest we'll be in with a decent shout of collecting come 2.50pm this afternoon. 5.35 Doncaster Division 2 of the above race and, again, we have a maximum compliment of 22. I'm following similar tact again and going with another big priced horse. At 8/1 the field, it's a very competitive event so being well handicapped has to be a major factor: Rigoletto (22/1 BetVictor BOG) - Firstly & very importantly, we're drawn next door to the pace which is in stall 3 in the form of aptly named April Fool. Rigoletto has the 2 stall and, looking at events yesterday, I think pace could play a crucial part. This horse has yet to win a handicap, striking only in a maiden at Chester on its 2nd start but has been highly tried since. As a 2yo, was pitched into 2 group races so is clearly well regarded. Started in handicap company first time up last year when 16/1 3rd of 11 off a mark 10lb higher than todays. Didn't do much after that but I'm convinced 7f is its trip and 6 times last year it ran over a mile which to me is a furlong too far. Struggled in its one all age 7f handicap when fav but otherwise, ran 3 good races in its own company over this trip. Form of 3-2-5 off marks 3lb-6lb higher than todays back that up. Other than 1 try on AW, our charge is dropped into this company for the first time and has also been eased 3lb in the weights. The return to 7f will certainly help and I'm buoyed by the fact the horse can go well fresh. By all accounts, the horse has been going ok on the gallops too and I'm pretty sure the trainer wouldn't send the horse out if it wasn't ready to roll, especially as it's owner trained. 22/1 is too big and I'm happy to take the EW available on this one.

[chris34]

Re: Sunday 1st April Flat Racing 2.45 Doncaster Another fiercely competitive handicap. Silvery Moon would have been of interest on slower ground but this drying ground is not ideal on the back of a 199 day lay off, did go that well fresh last year and probably best over a mile so too many negatives. Richard Fahey has a good record in this race but only saddles one in this division at is interestingly ridden by a 7lb claiming jocket who hasnt shaped to bad but this is a big field and not the easiest ride for an inexperienced jock and the race he won on penultimate start on the AW has worked out awfully with the first 4 home doing nothing next time out worringly. Jungle Bay looked very unlucky last time out but he often does and often stays on once the race has been won and looks high enough in the weights returned to turf. Ellie In The Pink was given a strange ride on reappearance didnt ever appear to be put in the race and was well below her best, but now has something to prove but should come on for the run but is no favourite in my book. Nearly didnt put this one up on worry of the ground drying out further although sunny day it should remain cool. Sound Amigo looks one to keep on side based on his efforts last year 4 wins from 8 runs now and more than respectable effort last time out on fibresand debut yard did say that day he would need the run been given time to get over that and should continue to improve this spring. 1pt e/w Sound Amigo 9/1 vc Doncaster 5.35 Nezami is a little bit of a risky bet but that said he does look overpriced. He only has 2 wins to his name from 38 starts that last came in a handicap in 2008 at Leicester off a mark of 83. Has since been frustrating popping in a few good runs here and there but has otherwise tumbled in the weights down to a mark of 70, but his recent 2nd at Southwell back from a break was a step in the right direction if coming on for the run he should be competitive off just a 2lb higher mark. Ground isnt a major concern given he has form on both fast ground and some with cut main concern is the lack of consistency but he is still overpriced. 0.5pt e/w Nezami 20/1 vc