The Saint Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Same as previous post ... I agree. My selections, whether I am just following a runner or actually backing it never change once chosen, but I do understand what you mean in hyperthetical and actual bets. I will back track my previous posts and update soon. What I will add to the thread is a starting bank of 150 points ( backtracked obviously ) and post asap. Thread should work well then and highlight my faults by selection. Will keep my actual bets on a paper trail to not over complicate the thread. Might post them up say once per month to give the readers an idea what i'm actually backing besides just following. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil - Best of Luck m8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 14th April Newcastle 15:55 = Class 6 , 7f Handicap over Soft / Heavy Going. Was originally looking at the ever consistant Cyflymder here but looking at previous race stats, The going is not suited for this Gelding. My selection instead is Beachwood Bay whilst predominantly an A/W runner the going to be a major advantage today. This previous Distance Winner and Beaten Fav has a Good wins to runs ratio. Previous runs on fibresand suggest the soft going may suit this run more than others although having to take into account previous Turf form is not very good. The other deciding factor in this selection is it's ability to stay at the front so the pace should not be an issue. Saddled today by S De Sousa who himself is in very good form at the moment could bring this home for a win. Not comfortable with a place because I think this runner is better and ideally suited to the going. Beachwood Bay - 1 point Win (Currently 6/1 with SJ ) Also a little note. These are the stats I will be posting whilst keeping track of the thread. Updated results will be posted after this result. Selection Stats Starting Bank = 150 points Bets = 17 Wins = 1 Placed = 2 Staked = 0 points Returns = 0. points Profit / Loss = 0. points Remaining Bank = 0. points Win & Place Strike Rate = 18 % Cheers Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 14th April Newcastle 15:55 = Class 6 , 7f Handicap over Soft / Heavy Going. Was originally looking at the ever consistant Cyflymder here but looking at previous race stats, The going is not suited for this Gelding. My selection instead is Beachwood Bay whilst predominantly an A/W runner the going to be a major advantage today. This previous Distance Winner and Beaten Fav has a Good wins to runs ratio. Previous runs on fibresand suggest the soft going may suit this run more than others although having to take into account previous Turf form is not very good. The other deciding factor in this selection is it's ability to stay at the front so the pace should not be an issue. Saddled today by S De Sousa who himself is in very good form at the moment could bring this home for a win. Not comfortable with a place because I think this runner is better and ideally suited to the going. Beachwood Bay - 1 point Win (Currently 6/1 with SJ ) Result = 12th ( Of 12 ) - mid-division, pushed along halfway, soon weakened Up to Date Stat's Starting Bank = 150 points Bets = 18 Wins = 1 Placed = 2 Staked = 30. points Returns = 4. points Profit / Loss = -26. points Remaining Bank = 124. points Win & Place Strike Rate = 16.66 % Very slow start, Similar to how my previous thread started. Mind you though quality of flat racing is not fantastic at the moment and there's plenty of time to see a profit yet. I Hope. Cheers Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Monday 16th April Windsor 17:30 = A very capable A/W runner but the form of Shirataki on turf is a concern. If A/W form can be transferred across here we should have a very interesting run. Same goes for todays jockey L Morris, Has some excellent form but is only consistant on the A/W and nothing really to note when running on turf. The time has to come when the excellent form has to come across and LTO was and encouraging finish with it's first run on turf in nearly a year. Very capable of keeping with the pace but might need a little cut in the ground to assist. Shirataki - 1 point E/W ( Currently 16/1 @ SJ ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Monday 16th April Windsor 17:30 = A very capable A/W runner but the form of Shirataki on turf is a concern. If A/W form can be transferred across here we should have a very interesting run. Same goes for todays jockey L Morris, Has some excellent form but is only consistant on the A/W and nothing really to note when running on turf. The time has to come when the excellent form has to come across and LTO was and encouraging finish with it's first run on turf in nearly a year. Very capable of keeping with the pace but might need a little cut in the ground to assist. Shirataki - 1 point E/W ( Currently 16/1 @ SJ ) Result = 10th tracked leaders and keen, ridden and weakened over 1f out ..... Very Disappointed with this selection. Starting Bank = 150 points Bets = 19 Wins = 1 Placed = 2 Staked = 31. points Returns = 4. points Profit / Loss = -27. points Remaining Bank = 123. points Win & Place Strike Rate = 15.8 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 21st April We are starting to see some quality race cards as the season progress's. Last few days have been poor and I didn't see much value in what was running. Also seen some strange results and with the way my bank is deteriorating I am trying to preserve a little and follow the quality cards. 2 selections today. 1 Newbury & 1 Thirsk. Will post soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Newbury 15:45 - Been mulling over this race for a couple of hours now. Early favourite's Captain Bertie & Fury do catch the eye but looking at previous years results my mind is cast over Maverik & Highland Knight. Captain Bertie has had a very poor previous season and I don't think the draw is going to help today. Fury is my main worry with a high draw ( 21 ) which seems to be of favour in this race. Maverik seems more comfortable on the AW at the moment and does not seem to start well. The draw could see him held up quite early. That leave's Highland Knight. Would prefer the ground a little harder but has started to post consistant results. Low draw which cause's a worry because last 3 winners of this race have come from double figure draw's. Also this race seems to favour runners further down the pecking order with the last 3 winners at 14/1, 40/1 & 20/1 respectively. Highland Knight is a a previous distance winner and seems to prefer a 1mile race. If Fury rides the race we know he can then Highland Knight should be more than capable of a place. Highland Knight - 1 point EW ( Currently 20/1 @ SJ ) Thirsk 17:35 - Not a fantastic looking card for this class 5 6F race but previous Distance Winner & Beaten Fav Prince Of Vasa has caught my eye. Although seems more happy on AW the slight cut in today's ground could be of benefit. Low draw is a worry as historically higher draws are favoured over 6f races here with double figure runners. Nearly half the field are having their 1st run in 6 months and a fitter runner with consistant 2012 result's must be of benefit. A regular Horse and Jockey pairing has seen the most prolific results of Prince Of Vasa's short career with 2 Wins & 2 Places in last 5 runs all in 2012. Prince Of Vasa - 1 point Win ( Currently 6/1 @ SJ ) Cheers Phil. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 5th May Finally starting to see some quality racecards that offer value. Over the last week the value I usually look for has only been on the A/W and did not fall into my selection criteria because of the runner recent form. Anyway today see's an excellent race at Newmarket that I personally think is wide open and could spring a little surprise. Newmarket 15:10 - As above, I see this race as absolutely wide open. 18 runners Class 1 over 1 Mile. Only 3 of the runners have a recent run over 1 mile but not in an over fantastic field and the result from their previous could be deceiving. There are a few runners here that have been gradually increasing the distance of their runs and have recorded some decent results that make's me think there could be a big surprise in this race. As I look for value in my selections, I am split over 3 runners here and all are at massive odds. First one I am looking at is R Hannon's Coupe de Ville. Previous Course Winner, Distance Winner and Beaten Fav has form over 1 Mile but the going could really suit here. Although a step up, Should be one to keep an eye on. Next is another Hannon runner Redact. Although no previous 1 Mile experience, the going could really suit. Last is my outsider selection ( although the odds for all 3 say they are all outsiders ) J A R Toller's runner Saigon. Same as previous, No experience over 1 Mile, but the reason for selecting this runner is my curiosity with this Trainer. He is a very canny character and as with Hannon, Doesn't just place runner's in a race at this time of year to get them fit. My thoughts on this race are because of the odds, They are not running just to get fit. They have either been dropped in distance and brought back up gradually. Same goes for class of race and over different going's. It's like a smoke screen, And with Hannon especially he doesn't chose runner's to just make up numbers. Coupe de Ville - 1 point EW ( Currently 80/1 @ SJ ) Redact - 1 point EW ( Currently 150/1 @ SJ ) Saigon - 1 point EW ( Currently 100/1 @ SJ ) Possibly 1 runner from Doncaster tonight but still analysing the cards. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philss_99 Posted May 12, 2012 Author Share Posted May 12, 2012 Re: Philss_99's Flat Thread 2012 Saturday 12th May Ascot Had a torrid week with my selections due to weather. Either my runners were pulled from the race or the meetings were themselves cancelled. I have been mulling over the cards for today and obviously the ground is going to be a major factor in today's races. Been looking at the Ascot card and after picking out 4 runners, I have now whittled it down to 1 selection basically due to the weather. The 4 runners I have picked at Ascot are - 14:50 = Shesastar, 15:25 = Lightning Cloud, 16:35 = Mata Hari Blue, 17:10 = Interakt. The runner that I am following today is Mata Hari Blue in the 16:35. Class 4 6f race with some decent runners from last season but the ground is going to have a major bearing on the result. 10 of the 13 runners would probably prefer the ground a little harder with only Jack My Boy, Rothesay Chancer & Mata Hari Blue having decent form over Soft or Heavy going. Although this is it's first run at Ascot and an increase in race class, Mata Hari Blue is running in it's preferred distance and will not mind the soft ground. Drawn in the middle of the field, Will need a good start to get anything from this race. Ascot 16:35 - Mata Hari Blue = 1 point WIN ( Currently 12/1 @ SJ ) Will update stats after this race. Cheers Phil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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