Jump racing - Tuesday 27th March

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2:10 » Hereford TUE 27 MAR 2012 BHEST RACING TO SCHOOL NOVICES´ HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £3,249 Good 2m1f Number of runners: 9 PLENTY POCKET 4pts wins @ 5/6 bog (Bet365 and many more) I don't wanna make it long here because if Plenty Pocket is fine there should be no match for him in against these opponents. I guess the horse has to be ok if Nicholls sends him back on track and once the ground has finally turned back to his favourable dry status and after a 3-month break following the terrible performance at Kempton on Boxing Day (ground surely too soft) Plenty Pocket should be able to show why he had been rated 137 (134 now) after his very nice win at Kempton 5 months ago followed by a good third in a Listed at Haydock behind Molotof. Of course his last effort at Kempton on boxing Day leaves room for worries but the ground was against him and he was facing a way tougher test than today's one. So if that's the case (horse fit and ready to go) I can't see this nice French-bred chestnut losing against horses like these: Archie Rice (very good on the AW this winter and back to his best over hurdles with a very close second at Fakenham 11 days ago but still maiden after 7 attempts over hurdles), Constant Contact (very good on flat where he won 3 races in 12 starts and was rated up to 97 but was sold for just 8,500gns few months ago and showed too little in his first two starts over hurdles even if those performances came in ver good races won by Colour Squadron and Dildar), Silicium (who started his career with some promises (2nd on his debut in January 2011 and third nto) but failed to build on those good first efforts during this winter) and Tuscan Gold (2 wins in 11 starts on flat where he's still rated 86 but disappointing in his second and so far last start over hurdles when failed to build on his decent fourth at Huntingdon on his debut).

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Re: Jump racing - Tuesday 27th March « 2:40 » Hereford TUE 27 MAR 2012 BHEST RACING TO SCHOOL MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) Winner £2,534 Good 2m4f Number of runners: 10 DJ MILAN 4pts win @ 11/2 bog (William Hill and many more) DJ Milan won a bumper here and should appreciate both the drying conditions (being a son of Milan and since he won on similar ground last summer) and the longer trip. He seemed outpaced over 2mf5f at Leicester but probably it was on a day-off especially since he showed something totally different after a 3-month break when he reappeared one month ago at Towcester and was very unlucky to fall 3out when clear of the remainder with Sunny Ledgend (the big favourite of that race, who won with ease and who raced next in the Neptune won by Simonsig at the Cheltenham Festival two weeks ago, now rated 130). Difficult to say if he could have beat the Andrew Martin's horse (who was getting also a 7lb allowance that day thanks to his conditional jockey) but he would have been at least close to do that. Nothing of that value on offer in this race and it's always valuable to side with a horse trained by Donald McCain, whose yard are in super form at the moment (5 winners with their last 15 runners during the last week) as it's been the case all season long (134 winners and 21% strike rate so far in 2011-12). The market leader is Grandioso who won a bumper 13 months ago and was 9th in the Grade 2 bumper at the Aintree Festival (won by Steps To Freedom) one year ago. He has had quite a poor start of his jumping career collecting two thirds and one fourth and he is now rated 118. He's been mainly disappointing (beaten 16L, 21L and 11L in those races and he was the strong favourite in his first two outs) and carrying the colours of Andrea & Graham Wylie with the training of Paul Nicholls everybody believes the horse has to improve maybe expecting a plus from the better ground or the longer trip but actually for what he's been showing so far (his last race has been just 19 days ago) there is no reason why he should be such a big favourite (2/1 his best price atm). The main alternative in the market is Family Three (best priced at 5/2 atm) who represents a very dangerous combination: Rebecca Curtis and AP McCoy. The couple has been partnering with plenty of winners all over their careers and especially during this campaign. The horse was bought for £19,000 two years ago after a nice second in Maiden PTP (good) and finished 5th in his bumper at Chepstow in December (heavy) and 4th in his first try over hurdles over 3m ten days ago at Ffos Las. Dropping drop back in trip on today's faster going, as he didn't seem to stay 3m last time, could be a big help and McCoy seemed keen not to give his mount a hard time from the second-last in that ground (soft) when his winning chance was gone and so those 24L behind the winner Makethe Mostofnow could be read in a wrong way. I fear him more than Grandioso but still the horse has too much to prove to be a 5/2 chance in this race imho. A big danger imho could be Unex Degas who represents the red-hot form of the David Pipe's yard (6 winners with their last 10 runners in the last week). Unex Degas will make his debut over hurdles today so it's an unknown quantity at least as far as concerned his jumping skills as he raced already and was twice third (both in bumpers) in January and February. It's only a 4yo (with good pedigree from High Chapparral and costed 92,000gns as a yearling) and so he gets 8lb allowance for being a 4yo and 3lb more for the conditional jockey Conor O'Farrell on board so 11lb lighter than his main rivals in this race. Of course it could be anything but it has to be a main danger on paper. Coronea Lilly is trained by Neil Mulholland and is back after 607 days. She won last time out a bumper at Galway when still with David Marnane but has a lot to prove after such a long break. A Hit Is A Hit is another former bumper winner and collected two good thirds before disappointing in his last two starts. He represents Evan Williams who has won with 8 of his 39 runners in the last fortnight. Koultas King represents Tim Vaughan and was runner-up in a bumper (good) and settled better when stepping up in trip and setting sedate pace on second hurdles start at Ffos Las (soft) but that form (surely not that bad) doesn't make a special appeal in this contest. It's a maiden with a lot of question marks as usual but if DJ Milan can avoid bad jumping mistakes and just reproduce the form he showed last time out he has to be the favourite of this race and at current prices it's a big solid bet for me.