Jump racing - Monday 26th March

[Edberg]

« 5:00 » Towcester MON 26 MAR 2012 LADBROKES ROULETTE HANDICAP CHASE (CLASS 5) (5yo+ 0-95) Winner £1,819 Good 2m3f110y Number of runners: 9 LONESOME BOATMAN 5pts to win @ 4/1 bog (Bet365 and many more) My first top bet since I started recording my bets here (terrible stats so far but it happens so we just look forward for the next winner). Lonesome Boatman is a 12yo son of Old Vic and is the eldest of the group here. Even if he is so old he didn't have so many runs so far and achieved very little but still enough to entitle him for big race today imho. He's a former PTP winner and is a track specialist (ran half of his races under rules here at Towcester). His only win under rules came in this race one year ago when he had a slow start as usual but with a good run in the final stages beat quite easily Monsieur Georges (who easily won next time out). As written above that was the Lonesome Boatman's first win under rules at the 16th attempt and he never won again since that race but after a poor last run a couple of weeks after that success the horse had a long break and came back on track just two months ago. He was pulled up at Fontwell first time out this season but went on to finish 4th in his next start at Hereford and back to his favourite track here at Towcester and back up in trip (from 2m1f to 2m4f) he went very close to win 11 days ago when really unlucky (head behind Zouti) as he probably would have collared the winner if he had been more fluent at the last two hurdles. He was soon taken out again for a run over a shorter trip (2m1f again) at Chepstow one week later (4 days ago). He didn't get a good start and was soon tailed off and was travelling not well at all in the first half of the race then he finally settled and flashed home with a superb finish in the last couple of furlongs coming from nowhere to take 4th close home and would have won if there were just 100 yards more. That day he was well backed and sent off as the 9/4 favourite of the race and that's not a case as he was very well backed also when he won this races one year ago (showing a 15-race losing run before that race he was sent off as the 11/4 favourite) and the same happened at Towcester when he was an unlucky second 11 days ago (9/2 his odds). All his last efforts have been over hurdles and today he's back over fences but that's not a problem. Form is at his top, loves this track, has been surely trained to have his peak in this period and 20f will surely suit. He's off a 7lb higher mark compared to last year but his recent form over hurdles showed he's at the top of his game (went from 69 to 78 in the rating over hurdles after his last two good efforts in defeat) and with a clear round of jumps and a better start he should be there or thereabout in a race where there is little to be worried about. The main danger and current market leader is Cecily Parsley who is a 6yo daughter of Fantastic Light trained by Hughie Morrison. The mare has had 4 poor races in 2009 on Flat (rated 57 and never closer than 12L from the winner beating no more than a couple of other runners home in all her first 4 starts) but after a very long break Cecily Parsley showed something good once sent chasing. Her first start was at Ludlow (05 Jan 2012) where she finished 5th of 6 16L behind the winner Alasi, then she finished 4th at Southwell 47L behind the winner and in her last start she was a good second at Plumpton 10L behind the winner so she seems improving gets in the handicap sphere off a very low mark of 67 and of course could be still improving as she is very lightly raced but she jumps pretty bad (many errors also in her last two starts) and beat almost nothing (only a super disappointing Sybarite in her second last start and only She's Jolly last time out) so far so for me she's never a good shot at 5/2 (her current price). Of course there are 7 more runners but they really look nothing special. Scudamores' Mr Goofy is the top weight but after his (so far sole) win at Leicester one year ago didn't achieve anything and even if the better ground should help and won off today's same mark one year ago I can't see him a big threat to my selection if my selection runs at his best as I suppose he should be able to do today. Longsdon's Crystal Prince was well beaten in this same race one year ago and can't see any reason why he should reverse that form today. Billy Murphy collected a bunch of seconds but is still maiden, fell last time out and is 5lb higher than his last second. Twiston-Davies' Papradon won off a 3lb higher mark on fast ground at Worcester last August (2m7f) but he never matched that form since and should be soon almost at his best after a 104-day break to win this race something I strongly doubt. Opera Og represents Venetia Williams but has shown nothing so far but falling everytime. Bohemian Rock won a race over this track but was well beaten (3rd) in this race one year ago off a 3lb lower mark and even if it comes here in good form (second and third in its last two starts) there is no reason to trust him more than my selection. My Faithfull Annie won a minor handicap chase in first-time cheekpieces at Huntingdon in January but failed to match that form since and there's a reason why she is at the bottom of the betting market at the moment. So a favourite with plenty of doubts, a couple of horses already well beaten by my selection one year ago in this same race, a couple of horses who never matched the form of their last wins while Lonesome Boatman is surely at the top of his form, won this race one year ago, ran two very good races in defeat (both very unlucky) in his last two starts and knows this track better than anything else. Top confidence bet for me.

[Edberg]

Re: Jump racing - Monday 26th March « 4:30 » Towcester MON 26 MAR 2012 LADBROKESPOKER.COM HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-120) Winner £2,534 Good 3m Number of runners: 9 COUNTING HOUSE 2pts to win @ 4/1 bog (Bet365 and many more) I'll be very short here. Counting House is back after a 135-day break but he doesn't handle cut in the ground so that's the only reason for his long break during the winter. He won twice (and twice second) over hurdles in 13 starts and both his wins came with Jason Maguire in the saddle. His last win came just one year ago (25 Mar 2011) and was after a very similar break. His mark has dropped 3lb since his last run in November (from 123 to 120) and that should help as he went up a bit too much in the rating (won off 115 one year ago but did it very easy indeed) but it has to be said that he competed in way tougher companies after both his wins and last time out he was racing in a Listed race at Cheltenham. He has to beat mainly Chac Du Cadran who is a 6yo trained by Chris Bealby who won his Novices' hurdle over 2m5f here in November and finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd in his first three tries in handicaps after that win. He's a brave horse and should appreciate the up hill finish of Towcester but seemed to miss the killer instinct and could be well beaten once again (was a short priced favourite also in his second last start) and surely it doesn't look such a good value at 6/4. Among the other runners only Father Probus has been in the money in the last three starts (a win at Taunton and a third last time out) but he would like to enjoy an easy lead here and that's difficult to imagine and there are horses who look better handicapped at the moment.