Jump racing - Sunday 25th March

[Edberg]

« 3:50 » Downpatrick (IRE) SUN 25 MAR 2012 TOALS BOOKMAKER ULSTER GRAND NATIONAL. EUROPEAN BREADERS FUND HANDICAP CHASE (5yo+ 0-130) Winner €16,250 Good 3m4f Number of runners: 11 SELECTION BOX 2pts win @ 5/1 bog (Bet365, Paddy Power) Feature race of the afternoon at Downpatrick. Eleven runners and local trainer McBratney saddles three of them. McBratney is one of the Nothern Irish leading trainer as his stats show very well: he saddled 17 winners in the last 5 years between Down Royal and Downpatrick and just 9 in the other 18 Irish tracks. Two of his three horses represent the same owner (Web Law Racing Syndicate) but according to the jockey booking and the overall form there is little doubt about rating Selection Box well ahead of Essifer who won a PTP 3 weeks ago but is still maiden after 13 outs over fences (won only once over hurdles in 30 starts under rules). Selection Box is surely the main chance of the trainer and is the top rated horse of this bunch. The 11yo is now rated 121 and has been running in this race in the last three years always off a mark of 127 and always finishing third. He took advantage of his lower mark over hurdles to win here at Downpatrick a race in December and has been disappointing in his next two starts but after a 45-day break he's been surely aimed at this race and should be fully fit. Paul Carberry rides my "selection" and the experienced Irish jockey has a very special record at this track where he rode 16 winners with only 66 rides in the last five years and boosts a profit of +15.46 (he has better stats only at Bellewstown) which is a big number especially for a top jockey who usually rides short priced horses. I like to underline he had a bad period at the start of the season but has come back at his best lately with a super ride at the Cheltenham Festival (Bellvano) and another nice winner (Protaras) few days ago at Navan. He has 4 rides today at Downpatrick and all of them look big chances (Cause Of Causes and Dirar in the first two races of the afternoon are two very strong favourite chances). Mc Bratney saddles also Carsonstown Boy (with another top jockey on board since he booked Townend for the ride). Carsonstown Boy won a Hunter Chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day but that has been his only win in the last 3 years and his sole success over fences thus far. Moreover he has been quite disappointing in a recent out in a PTP when a modest third. The two market leaders at the moment are Askmeroe and Talab. The first is trained by Tony Martin and ridden by Ruby Walsh and so it's normal he gets a big support in the betting market but I don't like his chances at all. Martin has sent a bunch of disappointing runners in the last couple of weeks and to be more precise he saddled only two winners in February and 0 this month (very bad stats for a top trainer to say the least). The perfomances of his raiders have been disappointing even in defeat but Edeymi who ran very well at the Cheltenham Festival and has to be very good if his stablemates ran so bad of late. Martin had two runners yesterday at Gowran Park and both have been pulled up. Savello was one of my strongest fancies of the day but he was very weak in the market and went off as a 3/1 chance (from 6/4) to finish pulled up after he failed to follow the other horses just after the halfway point of the race (terrible performance). King Of The Refs at Navan one week ago and Bog Worrior at Naas two weeks ago two more Martin-trained big favourites who were more than disappointing. As far as concerned Askmeroe the 9yo never went close to the level he showed in a good win at Fairyhouse (his sole win over fences) two years ago (has had a couple of seconds last year but nothing special). He has had just one start over fences this term and finished 19th at Navan last November. After that he had a couple of decent efforts over hurdles (finishing third and second in poor handicaps were he was rated 95 and 97) and last time out, always with Ruby Walsh on board, he finished 10th 46L behind the winner at Thurles in another handicap hurdle (off 101). Still rated 119 over fences I can't see him justifying favouritism in this race. The other favourite is Talab and the main reason is that he can race off a very low mark (95) while he's rated 107 over fences. Another plus is that he's gonna wear first-time blinkers today and three weeks ago he finally hit the frame finishing third at Leopardstown in a handicap chase (off 93 so 2lb lower than today) not far from the winner (2 1/4L behind Mr Eko). Anyway the horse has won only once in 21 starts in his career so far and after that win in a Maiden hurdle at Bellewstown 2 years ago he reached the frame only once (third) in 14 starts before his third in his last out and above all over fences he was never better than 7th and fell in 3 of his first 6 tries before his last effort. The last stat is about his trainer Dessie Hughes. Well we all know he is one of the top Irish trainers but first of all he saddled no winner with his last 26 runners and his record at Downpatrick is something "special" as he saddled 30 runners in the last 5 years at this track and collected 0 winner (he has had at least one winner in all the other Irish tracks). I scratch both favourites for all those reasons and my main concerns are two other horses: Saville Row and Bally Wall. Saville Row represents top trainer Mrs Harrington and is rated 119 over hurdles (111 in this sphere) and could be improving as this is only his 7th start over the higher obstacles where he collected already three decent thirds. Moreover he has collected his sole win so far in the other Northern Irish track (Down Royal) where he had also one of his best ever performances over fences so far when 3rd of 11 22L behind Gran Torino on Boxing Day. Nothing special but could improve. Bally Wall on the other hand is one of the most experienced of the bunch and on board he has a top jockey (Andrew Lynch) I really like. Off today's same mark (109) he was beaten a nose (2nd) over 3m7f at Perth one year ago and finished a head behind Selection Box in this race last year (my selection is 4lb better today) and finished second 2L ahead of my selection in 2010 always in the Ulster Grand National EBF Handicap Chase but was off a 27lb lower mark than my selection that day (only 12lb lower today). Lately he was kept busy in PTPs where he won 6 times in his career but his best effort has been a second place five outs ago and his last results have been 5th and 7th in PTP, 8th and unseated rider under rules in his last two starts (his last out when UR was the race won by Mr Eko at Leopardstown with Talab third). So two "weak" favourites, a bunch of poor jumpers (most of them have more falls than placements), none of the runners in outstanding form and all of them up against three raiders of the local top trainer whose best chance seems to be the experienced Selection Box with Paul Carberry on board at a very decent price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Jump racing - Sunday 25th March 5:10 Hexham: Watson 1pt win 14/1 Bet Victor Watson has joined Donald McCain who is enjoying a fine season and is capable of improving horses switched to him. Watson was beaten over seventy lengths last time, however with hindsight that might not be quite as bad as it appears. The winner Many Clouds went on to run with respect in the bumper at Cheltenham, and on his first run Watson tried to keep up with the pace and ran free. According to Donald McCain on Betfair Watson has been working ok and with that first experience behind him, Watson could outrun his odds.