Lars Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The market currently revolves around Katchmore, an easy winner when well-backed on his debut for David Pipe. He carries a 7lb penalty which is nullified by the use of a 10lb claimer but it’s not likely that he’ll get such an easy time of it in front and he runs today on a much different track, at even money this has created value elsewhere. BE ALL MAN (15:00) has some cracking bumper form to his name and although he hasn’t really built upon that over hurdles so far, he’s had his excuses and today’s conditions should be ideal for him. Off a mark of 109, he should be capable of improving beyond that and with the drop in trip likely to suit, he rates as a fair bet. He was in the frame on all three starts in National Hunt Flat races on better ground in 2011, finishing 2nd twice (ran into the well-touted Population on the second of these efforts) and finally got off the mark with a game success at Warwick over the two mile trip, narrowly getting the better of a capable sort (who is currently rated 126 over hurdles). His three Novice Hurdle efforts all came in January of this year, all on softer ground. He shaped promisingly on debut over 2m4f, not quite looking to see it out but shaping with definite ability, before making a shocking jump on his second start at Ascot which cost him any chance at all, and then was hampered two out which only added to his troubles. He was upped in trip subsequently only ten days later, not seeing out the 2m7f distance on soft ground. He travelled really well on that occasion, going upsides with around 5f to run but his stamina ebbed away and was eased down in the closing stages. He takes a big drop in trip today to run over 2m1f on handicap hurdle debut, but all his best form came in Bumpers’ at this trip and the way he’s been travelling in his races at further suggests that he has the speed to cope with this trip. Alongside this, Exeter is a testing track and that should mean there’s less emphasis on speed anyway. The good ground at Exeter will definitely suit, as he’s shown his fondness for a better surface and he rates as definite value against Katchmore. Be All Man has shaped in the past that he could be a horse rated around the 120 mark, and although I’m always a little sceptical about handicap debutantes in these sorts of races, he should be capable of putting in a big effort today. The 49 day break is encouraging more than anything else, as he had previously had four races in six weeks, the short absence should have freshened him up and I just feel Be All Man should be around the 5/1 mark, so I’m willing to take the 8/1 on offer even though the favourite may be a tough nut to crack, and has other dangers including last time out winners Buckie Boy and Dream Performance, the latter of which might be worth a small saver. Bets 15:00 Exeter – Be All Man; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falbrav Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Jump Racing; Tuesday 20th March BE ALL MAN 3.00 Exeter. Handicapping should bring some improvement and on my workings there isnt much in this race. Should be capable of going close today. 1 point win, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verisimilitude Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Jump Racing; Tuesday 20th March Point At Issue 3.20 Southwell. 1 point win. Hit and miss but is capable. This trip on this surface doesn't concern me & the handicapper gives chances off a mark of 62. Hopefully will run its race. 9/1 William Hill (bog) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Re: Jump Racing; Tuesday 20th March 15:30 Exeter I like the chances of Nicky Henderson's Mush Mir in this race. He made his debut over fences last time out in a novice event on New Year's Eve and he ran out a 2 length winner that day without much trouble. Although the form of that race isn't the strongest, I do believe he will be an improver over fences and should take all the beating in this race. over an ideal trip and in ground he relishes. He is only the second highest rated over hurdles in the race as Qaspal is rated 2lbs higher (138) but the Phillip Hobbs charge hasn't really taken well to fences despite only having two races so far and if he could hint at any ability he had over hurdles today then he would be in with a chance. Mush Mir to win @ 15/8 (Bet365 - BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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