Jump Racing - Sunday 18th March

[StuSimmy]

16:15 Newton Abbot

Can quickly disregard three of the six runners in this race in my opinion and those are the three bottom weights -

Daneva, Solitary Palm

and

Lupita

. Out of the three remaining I will be ruling out

Award Winner

first, mainly due to the fact he is a lot more exposed than the other two having run over three times the amount of races than both the others that remain in my selection process. He has also only won handicaps in novice company over the jumps and they both came 2 years ago, since then he's been pretty poor over the jumps and I think that's enough to rule him out (especially at the current prices) despite looking on a handy mark of 105 (last ran over the jumps off a mark of 112). Out of the final two my selection is

Iona Days

who looks really progressive and at the current prices he represents the most value for me. He went chasing at the start of 2011 and although he disappointed in three novice handicaps, he went on to finish 2/9 in a handicap outside novice company. Despite the fact he ran off a mark of 96 (and had a 5lb claimer on board) he did then follow up with a win in a better race off a mark of 101. If you take into account he had no claimer on board that day then he was technically 10lbs higher that day and he ran out an impressive 7 length winner. Since then his form reads 433 off marks of 108 and 107, and once again he disappointed in novice company last time out. Down 1lb for today's race and back out of novice coampny where he seems to excel should give him a chance here today and add to the fact Wayne Hutchinson has been on board for three of his better efforts then he should give this horse a good ride again (form of 134).

Magic Marmalade

shouldn't be ruled out either but the fact he is prone to errors when jumping puts me off, his form over jumps reads 1FF and even in the race he won his jumping was a bit suspect.

Iona Days to win @ 4/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Edberg]

Re: Jump Racing - Sunday 18th March 3.25 Limerick BALLYNOE STABLES HANDICAP HURDLE (4yo+ 80-109) - Winner €7,245 Heavy - 2m5f - Number of runners: 18 GENTLE ALICE @ 11/4 bog (Bet365) Big chance for the 8yo mare trained by Daniel Murphy in this race. Gentle Alice knows how to win a race (5 wins in 25 starts so far in her career), handles the ground perfectly (all wins on soft/heavy), is in very good form over fences (she won destroying the field in her second last start at Gowran at the end of January and was facing a very tough test in a Grade 2 company last time out at Naas when 5th of 6 starters behind Seabass), has won already here at Limerick (14 months ago destroying a field of 12 starters and finished third in a Grade 3 twelve months ago), is rated just 105 over hurdles but had few races in this sphere (1 wins and 2 thirds in 8 starts and all came when still way more unexperienced) while she is rated 131 over fences where she has been running all her season with very good results (also close second to Blazing Tempo in a Grade 3) after the seasonal comeback over hurdles after a long break back in October (poor performance but still far from being fit enough) she gets a very handy 5lb claim thans to the booking of the conditional jockey Rob Jones who is enjoying a super season so far (15 wins) and is in the form of his life lately (3 wins with just 6 rides last week and just missed another winner yesterday at Down Royal) and finally her today's opponents don't look nothing special (De Dodger was unlucky lto but is still maiden after 13 attempts over hurdles, Lookoutnow will try to make all but can't see him defeating strong finisher Gentle Alice if they get close in the last furlong). Everything looks in her favourite and she deserves to win a race like this off her current mark over hurdles.