Flat Racing - Sat 17th March

[RussP]

8.20 Wolverhampton The most competitive race of the night, a 7f Class 5 handicap with 11 runners left to go to post. Trappy event and I'd look to oppose the market leaders here. I did originally look at Smalljohn as a horse that could bounce back but there's been stupid amounts of money for it, now the 4/1 jolly. I'd want at least double those odds. 3 of those opposed lto with Bahamian Lad seeing off Hawk Moth, whilst Chookie Avon was back in 6th. The form of that looks particularly suspect to me, with the front 2 suited by the way the race was run and the fact that they finished pretty bunched up at this track. Greenhead High is in great form but would be more of a proposition over shorter and on the Fibresand. Will try to lead but I see this one being swallowed up in the straight whilst Wigrams Turn does look a danger but I just think its mark is going in the wrong direction to be considered a strong betting proposition. This leads me to a double figured price bet. Yankee Storm (14/1 BetVictor) - Top weight here but looks a real danger on all known form. There's still plenty to convince me on recent form even though we must ignore lto's no show at Kempton. I think the horse went off a little too quick that day. Previous to that, it was a very unlucky loser indeed when getting no sort of run 1f out. Was full of running that day and surely would have won comfortably. Despite that, this horse gets in here off 2lb lower today. Has had only 3 runs back after an absence so should certainly be fit enough and is entered up twice this week, a sure sign the horse is ready to strike. Step back up in trip is, for me, a real positive and that's confirmed by this horse's performances in 7f handicaps on the AW in this grade. In the last 2 years, form with the aforementioned criteria, reads 7-1-1-3-3-4. The other thing to interest me is its mark. With the jockey taking 3lb off, the horse effectively gets in here off 67. In it's last 18 AW starts, the horse has twice raced off a mark this low, winning both times off marks of 67. 5 more races in the 60's (ie, 68 or 69) have seen form of 2-3-2-7-0, with the 7th place finish the race where the horse was badly hampered. Off the other 11 races, the horse was in the money on 4 of those occasions. A real consistent type who loves going left handed on the sand, should be suited by the additional distance and races at its favourite track. To me, all is in place for a very big run. My one concern is the drift on the exchanges but I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood of money come for it later on. Great EW shot.

[Chaostheorie]

Re: Flat Racing - Sat 17th March Wolverhampton 19:20 Miss Purity Pinker 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 Still a maiden, but run a very good race in Lingfield recently. was second behind Superplex. She travelled very well, unfortunately she was forced to race wirde in the turn because Arabian Flight, who unseated his rider, came in her way and she couldn't get a clear run. The filly runs usually at the front, which is also an advantage. I think 12/1 is massive price for this horse, has value for me.