jump racing 14/3/2012

[beaker1]

DIAMOND JUBILEE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE The Irish look to have a strong team this season, headed by the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Allee Garde and Soll (Daffern Seal, Four Commanders, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad and Our Victoria complete their septet) and have a reasonable record of late, winning four of the last 14 runnings, though Chicago Grey’s victory 12 months ago made him their first successful favourite for 26 years and the first outright winning favourite for 15 years. The market has spoken in favour of Allee Garde over the last two weeks; Patrick Mullins rides him in preference to Soll, so he looks the number one Irish hope. Experience has been important in this race (two of the last five winners were on their thirteenth chase start when winning the NH Chase) so Soll has to overcome inexperience if he is to win, having only had two chase starts to date. Others not to have had at least three chase starts are Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You and Daffern Seal. Entering the race off the back of a decent effort is also a must; only two of the last 28 winners failed to finish in the first four last time out. More importantly, seven of the last ten winners finished first or second on their most recent start. On that basis I would be against Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad, Our Island and Strongbows Legend. Paul Nicholls would have been hoping for a significantly better race record than just one placed horse from 13 starters (of which nine started in the first five in the betting) and his Harry The Viking in the colours of Sir Alex Ferguson has been the long-time NH Chase ante-post favourite. SHORT LIST FOUR COMMANDERS TEAFORTHREE UNIVERSAL SOLDIER BLEINHEIM BROOK LIVELY BARON CONCLUSION Plenty survive the negative stats as, amazingly, there are no five or six-year-olds to oppose this year (perhaps connections are learning?). Allee Garde and Alfie Spinner arguably have the strongest form but neither won or finished in the first two last time out. The well-fancied Harry The Viking represents a top yard with a poor record in the race, which is a concern, so maybe we could have a mini-upset or bigger; seven of the last nine winners have started at a double figure price. FOUR COMMANDERS is a full brother to no less than the Gold Cup winner Kicking King and has shaped like the four mile trip could be what he wants when running well in defeat this season in good class races. Nina Carberry’s booking also catches the eye. TEAFORTHREE hared off too quick in the Feltham but has impressed either side of that and stamina is definitely his strong suit – he looks the pick of the British challenge. UNIVERSAL SOLDIER didn’t beat a lot at Towcester last time but he did it by 52 lengths. He also looks like an out-and-out stayer so he could finish in the mix, as could BLENHEIM BROOK, who runs here in preference to three other entries at this meeting and the Midlands National on Saturday. Lucinda Russell does very well with her few Cheltenham runners at all meetings in and out of the Festival and he could be the sneaky each-way overpriced horse, coming off a convincing defeat of Lie Forrit last time. LIVELY BARON represents Donald McCain and isn’t too far behind Harry The Viking on two pieces of form; he arrives here after an easy win last time out. Court Red Handed also survives the negative trends (and was second last time out) but I have to draw the line at five for the short list. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE Since its inception in 1971, the Irish have won 16 renewals including four of the last six. Willie Mullins has been responsible for two of their last three and he runs Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark. Ireland’s most influential guide has been the Deloitte Hurdle over 2m2f at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day which Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace all contested before winning this prize, and it was won this season by Benefficent who beat Sous Les Cieux by just over a length. The result may have been different but for a mistake two out by the runner-up who shaped like he would love this extra 3f. Since 1974 only French Holly has won for horses aged seven or older, which is a statistic that counts against the likes of Baldadash, Fiulin, Natural High and Sunny Ledgend. Secret Edge is the only 4-year-old but you have to go back to Crystal Spirit in 1991 to find the last winner from that age group. Pattern-race form has been far more important than is the case for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, as only two of the last 14 winners had not contested a graded race over hurdles before; for that reason I am against Baldadash, Close House, Nagpur, Natural High, Nelson’s Bridge, Sunny Ledgend and The Tracey Shuffle. We must also concentrate on in-form horses as just one of the last 28 winners did not finish first or second last time out, which goes against Baldadash, Double Ross, Make Your Mark and Secret Edge. I don’t know what to make of Nicky Henderson’s woeful 0-23 record and especially as just two of those have finished any higher than tenth since 1990. On that basis, do I really want to back Simonsig at a relatively skinny price or his other runner, Nelson’s Bridge? That said, had Bobs Worth not been switched late in the day from the Neptune to the Albert Bartlett last season, he may well have ended that hoodoo given he posted an higher official rating in victory in that three-miler than First Lieutenant managed when winning this prize. SHORT LIST SOUS LES CIEUX MONKSLAND BATONNIER COTTON MILL CONCLUSION A five or six-year-old in the top six in the betting that finished or first or second last time out has won 24 of the last 26 runnings so I make no excuses for short listing the leading fancies that qualify. Simonsig isn’t shortlisted, however, given his trainer’s dreadful record in the race; neither is Make Your Mark who was only third last time. A bit harsh as that was in a Grade 1 race behind Boston Bob and on heavy ground he hated so I can see him go well back on better ground. SOUS LES CIEUX would be the trends pick having proved himself in pattern races, contested the best guide last time out when a bit unlucky in second, and his stable have won two of the last four Neptunes. MONKSLAND is also Irish-trained (Noel Meade, who won this race with Nicanor), has pattern-race winning form, won last time out and should love this decent ground so he too is very much a big player. BATONNIER may be best of the Brits though if they were undecided until late whether to run here rather than the Coral Cup, that could suggest that they may not quite view him as good enough but he is progressing quickly and is tough so can battle on into a top four position. I am guessing a little who may squeeze into the final slot in the top six in the betting and suspect it could be COTTON MILL who is 3-3 over hurdles and won a Grade 2 event last time out at Warwick and could just be under-rated for the John Ferguson yard. RSA CHASE Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three negative patterns, kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year which is what three big fancies in Grands Crus, First Lieutenant and Join Together will be attempting to overcome. The fastish ground would worry me for the latter as they thinking he was one for the 4m NH Chase earlier in the season and the other worry is that this race takes place on the Old Course whereas his impressive win in December was on the stiffer New Course. If the Feltham winner, Grands Crus, wins then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed. It is worth noting, however, that five horses to finish placed or fourth in the Feltham have won which brings in the third, Bobs Worth, who was also second in the Reynoldstown Chase and five placed horses from that race have gone on to win as well compared to just one winner. No RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie. The latter stat would also be against Grands Crus as it would Mr Moonshine, Call The Police and Walkon. Last year’s favourite also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience, having had just two chases over fences beforehand, whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles – not good if you fancy Call The Police. For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years, so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start but this year’s winner, Last Instalment, has been ruled out through injury so the race is represented by the runner-up and third, Call The Police and Lambro. Both are trained by Willie Mullins, who has had three winners and two seconds in this race. I bet he really wanted to run Sir Des Champs though but the owner relies on First Lieutenant instead who looks the pick of the Irish challenge going for a fourth straight win. Paul Nicholls, with two winners since 2006, has the best record of the Brits and trains Join Together. Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings and make up most of this year’s field with only Call The Police (9), Mr Moonshine (8) and Walkon (8) the exceptions. With regard to Call The Police, note that novices aged 9+ have struggled as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those – 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993. Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so Lambro, Walkon and Mr Moonshine are not for me. SHORT LIST BOBS WORTH CANNINGTON BROOK (FIRST LIEUTENANT) CONCLUSION Grands Crus may have the class to overcome his statistical negatives but I wouldn’t want to be paying at around 6/4 to find out. Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences; only Bobs Worth and Cannington Brook qualify on all counts. BOBS WORTH has placed in the right two races (Feltham & Reynoldstown), is 3-3 at Cheltenham, represents a top class yard with a victory in this race before and won the Albert Bartlett at last year’s Festival, as did Weapon’s Amnesty before he won here, so is very much the trends pick. CANNINGTON BROOK could be the each-way value. He is not flashy but that is the profile of most horses to run well in the RSA and he could not have been much more impressive that when winning easily at Haydock last time; he is certainly not one to be underestimated despite being forgotten about in the markets. Picking one more for the shortlist I would go with FIRST LIEUTENANT given he is a previous Festival winner and the Irish have won the last three runnings. He fails on stats not having run during the same calendar year but he arrives here off exactly the same break as last season before he won the Neptune. SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE Although Sizing Europe has plenty in his favour, for those wanting to steam in at a shortish price it maybe worth noting that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chase winners were beaten when attempting to defend their title the following season and nine of those started favourite or second-favourite. Should Big Zeb win, he would become only the third winner to regain his crown having lost it, following Royal Relief and Moscow Flyer. Previous Festival form is a recurring theme in these championship races, especially the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and 20 of the last 27 winners have won or finished placed at this meeting in the past – an obvious pointer to the last two winners of this race, Sizing Europe and Big Zeb. The other pair of the declared octet to place at this meeting in the past are Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, who were second in last year’s Arkle and Jewson respectively. Two placed horses in the Arkle, Buck House and Barnbrook Again, have also won the Champion Chase the following season since 1986 so Finian’s Rainbow supporters can be encouraged a little by that. The best guide by a country mile, however, has been the Tingle Creek Chase won by Sizing Europe, having featured eight of the last 11 winners. He beat Kauto Stone by eight lengths on that occasion with Wishfull Thinking back in fifth after treating it like the Prix de l’Abbaye. Gauvain fell at the eighth fence. Last season’s renewal and the Tied Cottage Chase fare next best featuring four winners apiece in the last ten years and both witnessed Sizing Europe beat Big Zeb into second. The Irish have had a terrific run of things lately, winning five of the last nine runnings; four of which were 1-2s. In fact, Sizing Europe led home an Irish 1-2-3-4 last season, underlining the strength in depth of Irish two-mile chasing of late (or highlighting the weakness of the British challenge) and they will be disappointed not to win it again with either Sizing Europe or Big Zeb. Realt Dubh gives the Irish a third winner but championship races at the Festival are very rarely won by seasonal debutants. Paul Nicholls has by far the best record of the home defence with four winners and five placed horses since 1999 and has switched Kauto Stone from the Ryanair to this race. Given that ten of the last 13 winners started at no bigger than 5/1 (29 of the last 30 started no bigger than 11/1), I don’t suggest you look too far away from the obvious and nine of the last ten winners had previously won a Grade 1 race which counts against I’m So Lucky and Gauvain. Big Zeb is up against it statistically being an 11-year-old, given that only Moscow Flyer has won aged 11 or older since 1977. SHORT LIST SIZING EUROPE KAUTO STONE FINIAN’S RAINBOW CONCLUSION Ten-year-olds have won twice in fairly recent times (One Man and Martha’s Son) so that wouldn’t put me off SIZING EUROPE. The fact that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chasers have been defeated is the niggle but he is a better horse this season than when he won last year’s Champion Chase and this is a weaker race as well, so what is not to like except the price? Personally, I think any odds-against is a good price, he is so much better than these if on his game and he has won the three key guides (last year’s race, Tingle Creek and Tied Cottage) in the last year. With Big Zeb being an 11-year-old, I have to look to KAUTO STONE and FINIAN’S RAINBOW as the horses that would be most likely to take advantage if the favourite underperforms and. Kauto Stone was second in the Tingle Creek, which has been by far the best guide, and is also trained by Paul Nicholls who has a fantastic record in the race. The worry with him would be quickening ground but he is only six whereas the big three are aged 9, 10 an 11 so he is the one with most scope to improve. Last year’s Arkle has been traditionally a good guide, though that is normally the winner rather than the runner-up but Finian’s Rainbow should hit the frame and is probably the safest each-way bet of the race. He is still improving and the small field will be in his favour. CORAL CUP The Irish have to be respected and when Carlito Brigante won very easily last season he was recording a seventh win for the raiders, which is terrific going given that they have supplied less than one-fifth of the total runners since this race was run in 1993. Their representatives this year are Carlito Brigante (off a 13lbs higher mark), Final Approach (10lbs higher than when winning last season’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle), Stonemaster (first time visor) and Silverhand (going well in this race two years ago until almost brought down 2 out and is 4lbs higher this time). The best British guide has been the Betfair Trophy at Newbury in mid-February, as it has featured three Coral Cup winners from the last seven occasions it has beaten the weather and looked a mighty strong renewal this season featuring the winners of endless big-race handicaps. Contenders from this year’s race are Get Me Out Of Here (2nd), Abergavenny (9th), Third Intention (10th) and Final Approach (18th). Six of the last nine winners of this viciously competitive handicap had also won on their last start so do not fail to underestimate the value of last-time-out victory. It is also worth recalling that fractionally under half of all handicap hurdle winners at the Festival (29-60) were won by last-time-out winners from under 20% representation. Last time out winners are Third Intention, Tenor Nivernais, Star Of Angels, Poole Master, Cape Dutch and Balgarry. Only four of the 18 winners had not won earlier in the season which puts me off Get Me Out Of Here, Spirit River, Stonemaster, Saphir River (never run in Britain or Ireland so a chance the Handicapper has guessed incorrectly with him though), Silverhand, Veiled, Megastar (though he has been suffering with a tooth abcess that he is over now) and Act Of Kalanisi. On the weights stats, no winner has officially been rated higher than 147 which is not good for Get Me Out Of Here, Carlito Brigante, Third Intention, Featherbed Lane and Final Approach. Also consider the freshness angle as three of the last six winners did not run during the same calendar year from low representation which brings in Golan Way, Spirit River (won this race two years ago), First Fandango, Saphir River and Silverhand. You may also want to put an extra tick by the name of second-season hurdlers, as they have been responsible for six of the last seven winners, and a red marker through horses aged eight or older, as only one of their 99 subsequent contenders since Top Cees won in 1998 has won despite them accounting for just under one-third of the total runners. Horses aged 8+ are Get Me Out Of Here, Golan Way, Cockney Trucker, Shoreacres, Silverhand, Star Of Angels, Consigliere, Son Of Flicka and Dare Me. SHORT LIST ABERGAVENNY POOLE MASTER BALGARRY TENOR NIVERNAIS FIRST FANDANGO CONCLUSION I make it that 9 of the 28 runners survive the negative patterns but we can’t have them all so I am concentrating on second-season hurdlers to finalise the short list as they have won 6 of the last 7 runnings. ABERGAVENNY tops the list having also run in the Betfair Trophy which is a good guide to the Coral Cup. He was also third in the Greatwood Hurdle here in November so has proved he handles a competitive big field handicap at Cheltenham. TENOR NIVERNAIS would probably want more rain but is a last-time-out winner and second season hurdler for a yard already with one Coral Cup in the bag so he is of interest. FIRST FANDANGO is a second-season hurdler that arrives off a break and both of those are positive stats. Fourth to Rock On Ruby the last time we saw him, he could be one at a big price to hit the frame for each-way purposes. Cape Dutch is a novice to be respected and his Musselburgh form with Cotillion could see both go well. Knight Pass is another second season hurdler to consider who survives the negative patterns. The other pair to really catch the eye are David Pipe’s POOLE MASTER and BALGARRY given his trainer has been the man for the Festival handicaps of late and both won last time out in a manner that suggested they are well ahead of the Handicapper so a 5lb penalty may not be enough to stop them. FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE The most intriguing statistic is that all seven winners were beaten on their first two hurdling starts and it is almost an identical story for the novice handicap chase equivalent race at this meeting where all but one of its seven winners had also failed to win on their first two starts at their new discipline. For that reason I am not a fan of Sportsmaster, Kapga De Cerisy, Kie, Moujik Borget, Ulck De Linn, Dark And Dangerous, Gorgeous Sixty, Une Artiste, Ardlui or Royal Bonsai. Kazlian won his second start over hurdles but meets so many positive criteria I want to keep him on board. The problem for connections, however, is that if their horse has been beaten on its first two hurdling starts then they are likely to have to seriously pull their finger out on their final qualifying run to force their way into the race, so no surprise to see five of the seven winners enter this race directly off the back of a win (brings in Argocat, Edeymi, Kapga De Cerisy, Kazlian, Vendor, Royal Bonsai and Lemon Drop Kid). It is also worth taking on board that four of the seven winners were either French-breds or French imports and those same figures also apply to horses from the top third in the handicap. Kapga De Cerisy, Colebrooke and Dark And Dangerous won at Sandown in February and three of the last five Fred Winter winners had won at the Esher track If you don’t believe that Flat race class is a significant factor then maybe think again as three of the seven winners were the highest rated Flat horse in the race; this is a big stat considering that just one horse can claim the mantle of being the highest-rated horse in the race from the Flat (unless joint top-rated of course) and the race attracts over 20 runners. Kazlian was rated 95 on the Flat so has to be a big player being the best horse form the Flat in the race. He is trained by David Pipe, who, with a winner, two seconds and third in the last five years, has clearly set his stall out to win this race. Given that fillies have been heavily outnumbered, they have a remarkably good record, having won three of the last six runnings; Une Artiste represents them this time alongside Gorgeous Sixty and Jackie’s Solitaire, SHORT LIST VENDOR EDEYMI ARGOCAT (KAZLIAN) LEMON DROP RED CONCLUSION KAZLIAN fits plenty of stats (last time out winner, French import, best Flat horse, trainer record in race) that I still want him on my side despite winning his second hurdles start. I usually prefer horses beaten on both their first two hurdling starts for handicapping purposes. EDEYMI and ARGOCAT appeal most of the Irish who have won two of the seven runnings. I like the fact both were beaten on their first time hurdling starts but were last time out winners and also their stables as they are both very cute when it comes to laying one out for a big handicap. VENDOR is a very short price but I can’t knock him on stats and he hails from the Alan King yard that fares so well in juvenile hurdles and went close with his two runners last year. By all accounts he is as good as their Triumph Hurdle fancies which means he is at least a stone well in if true. For a likely big-priced outsider LEMON DROP RED also has that profile I like of two defeats and then a win in three starts over hurdles and he might be the each-way horse at a big price. WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER The Irish lead 14-5 heading into the 2010 renewal but Cheltenian gave the home team a second victory in as many years last season so the vice-like grip of the Irish has started to weaken. On both occasions, it was also a 1-2 for the Brits which somewhat bizarrely was also the scenario on all five occasions when the Irish were sent home with their tails between their legs. We should not lose sight of the fact that the Irish have still won almost three times as many runnings (of which Willie Mullins was responsible for six) and from only approximately one-third of the total runners. Mullins runs Champagne Fever and Pique Sous this time in search of his Magnificent Seven. Just two of the 19 winners were beaten on their previous start though that should be balanced by the fact that the vast majority of runners will enter the race directly off the back of a victory. Still, that puts me off Glenwood Present, Ifandbutwhynot, Piano Concerto, Village Vic and Horatio Hornblower. Four of the last five winners entered the race unbeaten. Irish-bred horses have also accounted for 15 of those 19 winners but French-breds finally got on the board last season when Cheltenian put an end to their dreadful record where previously only one of their 25 runners had made the frame. Bumpers are, of course, all about potential but don’t lose sight of pure form either as Liberman, Cork All Star and Dunguib were unquestionably the clear form choices of their respective years. Given the terrible record of horses that have not run since Boxing Day at the Festival as whole (just Quevega has won in the last two years), it is therefore eye-opening that five of the last nine winners were put away specifically for this race having won before the new year, which could be significant, and all but three winners had not won a bumper comprising 14+ runners in the history of the race which is against leading fancies such as New Year’s Eve, Jezki and the Willie Mullins pair of Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. Finally, just five of the 19 winners could be found outside the first six in the betting so maybe don’t stray too far past the obvious. SHORT LIST MOSCOW MANNON ROYAL GUARDSMAN SIR JOHNSON (PIQUE SOUS) CONCLUSION MOSCOW MANNON’s latest victory when winning his third bumper (under a penalty) is probably the best piece of bumper form on offer; he looks the pick of the Irish challenge. Big money offers from prominent owners have been turned down for him and he could be the one the punters come for on the day – they usually hammer something. ROYAL GUARDSMAN could give Colin Tizzard his second winner of this race in the last three years, following on from Cue Card. Impressive at Ascot last time, he has won a bumper comprising 14+ runners, is Irish-bred and strikes me as the best of the British. SIR JOHNSON is 4-4 and been saved for this since winning at Aintree in the autumn (can’t run if have had 5 runs in bumpers) where he had Royal Guardsman behind. PIQUE SOUS may not have won a bumper with 14+ runners but Walsh rides and Mullins has won this race six times which I think compensates for that and I can’t really not have at least one Mullins horse on the short list as he is chasing a seventh win in this contest.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 Some fine write up's there Mrs / Miss

[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 1:30 Cheltenham: Teaforthree 1pt win 7/1 & Universal Soldier 1pt win 14/1 both Boylesports Teaforthree has run some decent races this season and looks likely to stay the four miles. He has gone well on the softer going yet his effort over an extended three miles here on good to soft going when only going down by a length and a half to Join Together with some useful sorts behind looks solid course form. Teaforthree went off too fast at Kempton in the Feltham and if steadied today he looks capable of a big run. Universal Soldier was pulled up earlier in the season and has since joined Charlie Longsdon and he won a race very comfortably at Towcester. While this proved little, Universal Soldier would appear to be a horse with potential and if performing in this bigger field and under pressure he could go well at what looks like a decent price. 2:05 Cheltenham: Monksland 2pts win 6/1 Betfred Monksland looks a horse with a lot of potential. So far he is unbeaten over hurdles and his latest run when accounting for Lyreen Legend by four and a half lengths at Naas looks very good. This will be a sounder surface than he has raced on so far under rules however there is every reason to hope he will be even better on good ground. 4:00 Cheltenham: Balgarry 1pt win 8/1 & Poole Master 1pt win 14/1 both William Hill The two David Pipe runners look very hard to get away from here. Balgarry may bounce however at 8/1 its worth chancing. First time out for his new stable at Newbury he jumped eyecatchingly well, getting over his hurdles very efficiently with the minimum of fuss. He may not have stood much racing in the past looking at his race record. However, can't help but think the plan was to come on here after Newbury and the yard must be as hopeful as is realistic, that he can go well again. Poole Master looks another that has been aimed at this meeting all season. Poole Master lines up here on a four timer after picking up a penalty last time which helped make certain he creeps in here. The form of Poole Master's races this season look very decent and have been franked. This is his first step in to handicap company for Poole Master so this will be the acid test, he could well be up to it. 4:40 Cheltenham: Kazlian 1pt win 9/1 Stan James David Pipe looks to have another good chance here. Kazlian has followed a low key path and as a result he is not harshly treated here. Kazlian had multiple entries for the Festival, so this must be seen as his best chance of getting his head in front. Its hard to say what Kazlian has acheived so far over hurdles, he was useful on the flat in France, however the form has the look of untapped potential and Kazlian should go well in a very competitive race. 5:15 Cheltenham: Cool George 1pt e/w 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 1234) Cool George could be worth chancing. He won his sole start very easily and the form has stood up. Umadachar who was nine lengths back in second went on to win next time out and then last weekend pushed Call Me A Star all the way to the line in the Listed bumper at Newbury on Saturday. With some improvement Cool George could go well at a big price.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 1.30 CH~ .25 COTTAGE OAK 40/1 boylesport~Speculative punt on this horse who was a decent in bumpers before being a hurdle winner and double chase winner needed run lto will love the ground good irish trainer who plans his horses for Cheltenham! 4.00 CH~ .5 E/W SON OF FLICA 40/1 Boylesports Missed the 66's still big enough to back though. Trainer already had a winner at the meet this horse ran a cracker at the festival last year and i can see it bounce back to that form here. 2.05 CH~.25 E/W NELSON BRIDGE 28/1 SPORTING BET~Bumper and hurdle winner need to improve to win this but will do and has the champ on top. 4.00 CH~ STAR OF ANGELS .25 W BF 55.00 BF P 11.00~ Pipe has a few in this but i like this one won lto and has went close in this race before. 4.00 CH~ .25 E/W 40/1 BET Victor ~FIRST FANDANGO Could even go off bigger than 40's! Ground will suit trainers horses running well claimer takes a few lb off. Could surprise. 5.15 CH~ .25 E/W VILLAGE VIC 16/1 BET Victor~Hobbs horse should be in the mix here having just got touched off lto hoping the better ground will suit the horse.

[cpo]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 1.30 Cheltenham Allee Garde 2pts EW @ 13/2 BetVictor Keeping it simple in the first and going for the current 2^nd favourite. AG looks to have a very similar profile to Chicago Grey in the way he has been mixing it in much better company on his last couple of runs. Last year’s winner Chicago Grey came into this race on the back of a decent effort in a grade 1. AG comes here on the back of 2 good efforts in a grade 1 and grade 2 race. He fits most of the trends for the race and has one of the top jockeys on board which for me is a massive positive in a race like this. If you look at the past few years of this race, then the first 3 or 4 home have been ridden by well known amateur riders. It pays to go with experience in a race like this and AG looks set for a big run. The Mullins team had a tough first day but hopefully AG will get day 2 off to a flyer for them. I reckon Alfie Spinner is the biggest danger. 2.05 Cheltenham Cotton Mill 2pts win @ 14/1 Bet365 This looks a cracking race and although the Irish have a good record in recent years, I am siding with the John Ferguson trained Cotton Mill. I backed this horse last time out when he got the better of Ambion Wood in a grade 2 contest. That form has been given a boost recently by Ambion Wood carrying top weight to victory in a grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown. Cotton Mill travelled much the best in that race but had to knuckle down in the end to prevail by 1 length. I was impressed by his battling qualities on ground that was probably softer than ideal. Tomorrow the good ground should suit him much more and I think he has the talent to get involved. He has only had 3 runs over hurdles so there is plenty of room for improvement. Dennis O’Regan takes over from Jack Quinlan which is a plus, given his experience. Can’t wait to see how he fares in this race tomorrow and hopefully he will kick-start a good day for the trainer. There are obviously some very classy horses in this race and Cotton Mill will have to improve plenty on his latest run. Simonsig has been hugely impressive so far and he is rightfully the favourite although a little short in my eyes. Monksland and Sous Les Cieux look the main Irish contenders and Make Your Mark has to be feared. 2.40 Cheltenham Bobs Worth 3pts win @ 4/1 BlueSquare Taking a big chance on Bobs Worth here given he was beaten comfortably by Grands Crus at Kempton. I just get the feeling we may say a different horse for this race. Bobs Worth is 3 from 3 at the track albeit over hurdles and it’s probably fare to say his chasing career has been very disappointing so far. He has to improve his jumping if he is going to figure but a return to this track may just perk him up a little. There are plenty of thorough stayers in this race so I think it will be run at a good clip which should suit Bobs Worth. I don’t think he was suited by the slow pace when losing to Invictus last time out. Grands Crus is without doubt the horse to beat in this but there are a few others that could go very well. Both Join Together and First Lieutenant are capable of big runs but I am happy to side with Bobs Worth who has a cracking record at the track. 3.20 Cheltenham Sizing Europe 5pts win @ EVENS William Hill (ante-post) Sizing Europe is my banker of the week and hopefully he will deliver the goods. I think SE is the best 2m chaser around at the moment and Finian’s Rainbow and Big Zeb have it all to do. SE beat Big Zeb very easily last time out and I don’t think he will turn the form around on ground that should suit my selection more than Big Zeb. The main danger looks to be Finian’s Rainbow but he hasn’t shown enough to suggest he can dethrone the champion. 4.00 Cheltenham Star of Angels 1pt EW @ 28/1 Skybet The Pipes have 2 much more fancied runners in the race but I quite like the look of this horse. His Cheltenham record is good with a 5^th in the Triumph in 2008 and a 4^th in this race back in 2009 off a 1lb lower mark. He has only had 4 runs since that race and has had plenty of time away from the track with injury. He returned to action in December but finished a well beaten 18^th of 19 at Sandown. He was given a month to get over that race but followed it with a good win at Wincanton carrying 11-12. That was a much easier contest than this but he had the field well strung out that day. There is every chance he can come on for that run and progress again, but he will have to do exactly that if he is going to get involved in this. Connor O’Farrell takes off a handy 3lbs and I can easily see this horse running better than his current odds would suggest. The obvious horses in this race are his stable-mates Balgarry and Poole Master. Both of them have to be respected but I like the look of Star of Angels at a big price. 5.15 Cheltenham New Years Eve 1pt win 40/1 Boylesports (ante-post) I will be praying for this to win tomorrow but I still have Shot from the Hip’s champion bumper performance fresh in the memory. I remember getting that one at a massive price and he went off a 3/1 favourite on the day, only to finish 20^th! Anything can win these bumpers but I am hopeful of a big run from New Years Eve. He hasn’t beaten too much in his 2 wins but the more I watch his Market Rasen win, the more I fancy his chances. The way he pulled clear of his rivals was hugely impressive. He has a cracking flat pedigree and showed plenty of speed to pull clear. Good ground suits him and Barry Geraghty takes the ride for tomorrow.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 1.30 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ben's Folly @ 40/1 (VC) This horse is probably the last horse I should be backing in theory for this 4 mile amateur riders' race, but I think he'll run his race. He has little experience over fences - running just once over the larger obstacles, and has plenty to find on the figures, but many of these will fail to run to their marks over this new trip, whilst I think Tim Vaughan's charge is a bit better than a 127-rated animal. He racked up a hat-trick over hurdles in the summer of 2010 before being off the track for just over a year. Naturally his comeback run was simply getting him back in the action, and would come on plenty for it. He did indeed, as he bounced back from that moderate display to win off a mark of 120 in the mud at Ffos Las - showing off his stamina. He ran a cracker on his chase debut next time at Newbury in a decent race. He was put straight into handicap company and jumped well on his first try over fences. This bodes well here, and he stayed on dourly in 2nd. The front two were well clear and he was shortened up late on in the race which cost him a little bit of ground. He gave 10lbs to the winner, who scooted up next time, so the mark of my selection probably is worthy of a few lbs more. There was 19l back to anything else at Newbury. Instead of building on this, Vaughan sent him back over hurdles in February for a Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at Haydock. It was a competitive heat, and Ben's Folly was pulled-up. This run came at a time when the yard were struggling badly (1-75 in January/February). I will forgive him this run, and returning back to a staying chase will suit him. The better ground looks likely to help as well. He stays strongly and jumps pretty soundly based on his Newbury effort, and the yard are in better form now. They've had a couple of winners in March, and quite a few home in 2nd, so I'd expect a better showing from his horses now. Our Island is also in the race, but has a more inexperienced rider, so perhaps they expect my selection to do the best of their two runners. It's obviously a big punt, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go well at a price. 2.05 Cheltenham - 3pts win Monksland @ 11/2 (Bet365) The word from many quarters has been that Boston Bob would win whichever race he ran in at the Festival, and with that one heading to the Albert Bartlett, it leaves Noel Meade's runner in with a serious chance here - having form tied in with that one. Simonsig is a well-fancied favourite, still, however, and I can see why. However, a horse who supposedly has so much speed according to connections, is opposable here for me over the 2m5f trip at Cheltenham. He has been impressive to date, but his effort upped to 2m4f a couple of starts back would concern me slightly. Obviously he met a very smart type in Fingal Bay, but he didn't find that much off the bridle, and I wouldn't be piling into him at 5/2 here with those slight stamina doubts in mind. Monksland has impressed me with the manner of his wins under rules so far, and his form has worked out nicely. He's one of the top-rated horses in the field, and there are no question marks over this one's stamina. You wouldn't necessarily have had him down as a Festival winner on his hurdling debut success, when getting up late under pressure from two horses who haven't really franked the form, but this bumper winner likely needed the experience over jumps, and certainly would improve for a greater test of stamina. He built on it, as expected, when running out a smooth winner at Naas over 2m4f last time out. He travelled comfortably and picked up well after the last, once regathering his stride after a flat-footed landing. He swishes his tail a bit, but it hasn't stopped him from finding plenty for pressure, and he won readily by 4 1/2l. On this occasion, he could have won by further, but the runner-up has really franked the form since. He chased home Boston Bob next time out - going down by 2l less than behind my selection. He was in receipt of 10lbs on that occasion, so it's no real surprise, but the winner had to really dig in to get there, whereas Monksland wasn't given too much of a hard time. You may well say that if Boston Bob ran here, he would have the measure of my hope, but without him, I'm quite keen, as the yardstick won a Grade 2 last time out in good style. He does have to face better ground here today, but I hope it won't be too much of a concern. His dam enjoyed a sound surface, so I would hope he may even improve for it. The testing track shouldn't be an issue either, and I expect Carberry to be delivering a late challenge here, and has every chance of getting up. 2.40 Cheltenham - 4pts win Bobs Worth @ 4/1 (BlueSQ) I'm keeping the faith with this horse here, as conditions will be right up his street today. He has to try and reverse form with the hot favourite Grands Crus, but should get closer here, with greater emphasis on stamina. Bobs Worth was a serious staying novice hurdler last season, who won the Albert Bartlett in decent style. He faced stiff opposition at Newbury on his chase debut, in the shape of Cue Card (ran a good 2nd in yesterday's Arkle). My selection wasn't as good as his rival at most of his fences, but his stamina really kicked in after the last, and he got up in the shadows of the post under a power-packed Barry Geraghty ride. He's not quite been at home in two starts since - at Kempton and Ascot. Both flatter tracks which tend to be a bit more about speed than stamina, something which isn't Henderson's runner's forte. His jumping has remained pretty hesitant, and he has kept on fairly well in both contests without really threatening. Mistakes late on cost him at Ascot from getting close to the winner, and his jumping naturally remains a concern here. However, he returns to Cheltenham for the first time since last year's festival - and he has a flawless 100% record at the track (3-3). The nature of Cheltenham suits the horse down to the ground, and I'm sure he's going to put in his best performance of the season today. There looks to be plenty of deadwood in the race. The market believes this is a four-horse race, but I think you can narrow that down to 2. First Lieutenant hasn't impressed me hugely over fences, and has an absence to overcome. He does go well fresh, but the stats are against horses without a recent run in this race, and the yard aren't exactly flying. Join Together is another to fall foul of the recent-run stat, and looks to want an even stiffer test. Grands Crus hasn't run in the calendar year, either, so Bobs Worth must have an excellent chance considering the last 48 winners have run in the same year as the RSA Chase. I really think this is his chance, and it can all come together for him this year, back at Cheltenham, and back at the festival. 4.00 Cheltenham - 2pts win Dare Me @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) I wanted this horse to go to the County (presuming he'd get in), but here we are. Posted this last time:

3.40 Taunton - 4pts win Dare Me @ 3/1 (Hills) The fact this horse has been backed gives me hope that he'll be going for the win today, as it's always tricky judging high-class handicappers just weeks before Cheltenham. I think he's well-treated and will be a big threat in the County Hurdle if he runs, even off a higher mark than today. Was high class in bumpers, but improved again over hurdles in late 2010, with two very easy victories. He first off beat a current 123-rated horse by 12l and then won unextended by over 4l to a horse now rated 130. Looking at this literally, Dare Me goes to war off a mark of 135, and should be well capable of exploiting this. Returned after a long break at Cheltenham recently and was one of the biggest eyecatchers of the season for me. Didn't jump all that great in rear, but kept making ground after his flights, and looked a threat up the straight in a competitive affair. A final error at the last cost him any chance he had, and he faded up the hill. It was hugely promising, and with that run under his belt, should go extremely well here if not 'bouncing'.

He ran fairly well at a time when the yard weren't going great, and the two horses in front of him ran well in the Imperial Cup last weekend, offering further hope. I'd really fancy this horse over 2 miles, but this is 2m5f, and even though he has a decent chance of staying the trip, it's an unnecessary question mark as far as I'm concerned. The Hobbs' yard are going a bit better now, so I'd have hope now this horse is going to be spot on. I remain that he's still off a fair mark, and his run two-starts back was massively eye-catching for me. If he gets home, he has a big chance in my book, and I sincerely hope he jumps better than two runs ago, and does indeed get up the hill. One of the interesting ones in the field. 4.40 Cheltenham - 2pts win Argocat @ 20/1 (Bet365) It's perhaps a foolish move to sidestep the hype regarding Alan King's Vendor - who is supposedly very well treated in this race, but I think Tom Taaffe's runner is overpriced, and therefore gets the vote for me. All seven winners of this race failed to win in their first two runs over hurdles, with 5 out of 7 winners scoring on their third start over the obstacles, before moving on to Cheltenham. My selection meets this statistic, and is very interesting for me in this race. He wasn't anything particularly special on the flat - with a rating of 75 - but was an expensive purchase and has a middle-distance pedigree. He didn't achieve much on his hurdling debut, when sent off at 25/1, but made a much greater impression when 3rd next time out, behind two horses who have thoroughly franked the form since. He went down 6 1/2l on heavy ground at Punchestown - behind a 142-rated horse who ran 2nd in a Grade 1 next time (behind a 16/1 shot for the Triumph), and a 141-rated horse who beat that Triumph hopeful before the running of that Grade 1 juvenile race. Argocat goes to war off a mark of 136 having won by 4 1/2l last time, again on testing ground, from a subsequent winner, with the pair well clear. His mark looks fair on these two recent runs, and he gets 7lbs taken off by an able claimer (1-2 for the yard) for the stable who have had 1 winner from 3 runs with hurdlers at Cheltenham. The better ground should also suit this horse, so I really believe he's potentially well-in and overpriced.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Cheltenham 4:00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Spirit River (5 places) (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 14/03/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Skybet @ 19.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Last seen over hurdles when he won this race in 2010. Followed up with four starts over fences but was very poor with a Fall, Fall, 12th of 14, and 4th of 4. His win of this race was by 4 1/2 lengths. Won course debut by 6 lengths. His two other hurdle starts was at Newbury for 5th of 12 and 17th of 13 so he really likes the timber here. Jockey Barry Geraghty is booked and he was on board all hurdle runs and all but the latest chase start. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Cheltenham 4:00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Cape Dutch (5 places) (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 14/03/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] BetVictor @ 19.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Won 3 of 5 starts over hurdles; 4th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st. Penultimate start was at this course (2m110y) last November for 2nd of 17 by 6 lengths. He proved to handle the place well; Tracked leaders, challenged between horses after 2 out and stayed challenging until before last, chased winner but no impression run-in, stayed on well for 2nd. He will handle the step up in trip having won at 2m4f LTO and three runs ago. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Cheltenham 4:00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Son Of Flicka (5 places) (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 14/03/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Blue Square @ 41.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Done well here in the past and could do so here with the stable in such good form at this years Festival. The selection placed 3rd of 17 and 2nd of 23 in the 2010-2011 season. The 2nd placed effort was for a 1/2 length defeat for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle. Trainer Donald McCain had 6 runs here yesterday for a 01320U. He only has three runners today. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 [TABLE=width: 100%]

[TR] [TD]Sport[/TD] [TD] Horse Racing [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Event[/TD] [TD] Cheltenham 4:40 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Selection[/TD] [TD] Soliwery (5 places) (Each-way) [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Strength[/TD] [TD] 1/10 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 150]Date[/TD] [TD] 14/03/2012 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bookmaker/Price[/TD] [TD] Bet365 @ 23.00 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reasoning[/TD] [TD] Just once raced in the UK. 2nd of 6 by a head at Sandown in January. Has plenty of potential coming from top connections of owner Michael Buckley, trainer Nicky Henderson, and jockey Barry Geraghty. He is also half-brother to smart 2m1f-2m5f hurdle/chase winner Solix, 2m-2m6f hurdle winner Soliya. Solix won at Grade 3 level over hurdles in France (Gr.2 placed) and competes in the Jewson Novices' Chase today. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[devil tish]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 I must say I am sweet on Cool George in the Champion Bumper at 1715. His only run at Exeter has worked out well, and could be anything after only 1 run. 28/1 VCBet a fair price, also paying 1/3 1,2,3,4. Each Way Doubled it up with the filly Patna in the bumper at Huntingdon, which i hear is no world beater, but is above average. Defo worth a dabble at 14's getting weight from the older horses/geldings. 1/5 1,2,3.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 1.30 Cheltenham - 3pts win Soll @ 15/2 (BlueSQ) This horse doesn't really have the profile that you might like in this race, as he remains inexperienced, but he has looked a natural chaser in two starts to date, and a stamina test will suit him down to the ground you feel. A point winner, this horse stayed on dourly to extend to a 10l success over the gruelling 3 mile trip at Newcastle on bottomless ground, and was only going further clear at the finish. That was after a break as well, so he seems to have plenty of stamina in the locker, and he's shown that as well since trying fences. Was off the track for a while, again, prior to his chasing debut, and he was nailed close home by a 135-rated animal who probably just had a little bit too much speed for him. Soll is an out-and-out galloper and that's why I think today is made for him. He's a big horse, who jumps well, and keeps on going for pressure. This was seen last time out over 2m4f at Dromore. He jumped well in front, but there were a couple of rivals in behind him who looked to be dangerous for a time, but he kept on rolling under pressure, to score in the end by 4 1/2l. The trip was insufficient, even on heavy ground, and the runner-up wasn't disgraced in 9th of 20 yesterday in the novice handicap chase here. He does have to prove himself on better ground today, but it should just about guarantee his stamina will last home. I don't think there's much between the two Willie Mullins-trained horses in this race, and I prefer this one even if Allee Garde may be a slight favourite out of the two. There's only 3lbs between them on ratings, and Katy Walsh is by no means a bad rider in the context of this race. She is 3-12 at Cheltenham and should get a lovely spin round on this animal, who I think can bowl along and fend off his rivals. There looks to be pace in the race, so it may pay not to get too involved, so a sit just off the leaders may be ideal here. He has a habit of doing this - despite taking over the running early on last time - and he has a massive race in him if Walsh gets it right.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012

Secret Edge 2.05 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. Can't win on the bare form of things, but watching him race I just feel the hustle and bustle of this race will be right up his street. The course should also play to his strengths and the trip's fine, so could show improved form this afternoon. 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[cpo]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 Can anyone tell me what happened with cotton mill?

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012

Can anyone tell me what happened with cotton mill?

Jinked and basically refused when disputing with Simonsig. Unseated O'Regan. Doubt he'd have won anyway, but would have been 2nd at least.

[cpo]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012

Jinked and basically refused when disputing with Simonsig. Unseated O'Regan. Doubt he'd have won anyway' date=' but would have been 2nd at least.[/quote'] Cheers mate, just got in and watched a replay. He was still going well but like you said, I doubt he would have beaten Simonsig. Bodes well for the other Ferguson horses!

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 Finian's EW looks the sensible and safe bet here, really can't see it out of the first 3 and think it has a realistic chance of winning too. Stable in form today and as long as he doesn't go to the front too soon it should give Sizing a race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 5.15 Cheltenham - 1pt win Ifandbutwhynot @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes) Terrifically difficult heats to examine, these bumpers, but this one has form in the book, and conditions should suit better today. He's a tad overpriced, and has a good chance of trading lower in the run. This horse joined David O'Meara last October, and wasn't expected to do much in his debut in this country at Uttoxeter, but ran a very creditable 3rd after a break, keeping on having been hampered in the run. The winner is a smart 135-rated novice over hurdles and the runner-up was a decent bumper horse himself, so it was a good effort. He improved again to impressively land a Newcastle bumper on good ground by 9l - beating a subsequent novice hurdle winner on that one's next start. He travelled superbly again at Ascot last time on softer ground, but raced quite keenly, and he started to feel the pinch late on. He looked like the winner turning in, but faded to be 4th late on. However, he wasn't beaten far, and the winner won another listed event next time out, with the 2nd cruising to success on his hurdling debut. The form looks strong, and the quicker pace here and better ground looks sure to suit. He travels like a good horse, and it wouldn't surprise me if he outran his price here today. Worth a small punt, anyway.

[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 Massive price winner there Ted & George :clap Bobs Worth ran well too for the guys on him :ok