jump racing 14/3/2012

[beaker1]

DIAMOND JUBILEE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE The Irish look to have a strong team this season, headed by the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Allee Garde and Soll (Daffern Seal, Four Commanders, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad and Our Victoria complete their septet) and have a reasonable record of late, winning four of the last 14 runnings, though Chicago Grey’s victory 12 months ago made him their first successful favourite for 26 years and the first outright winning favourite for 15 years. The market has spoken in favour of Allee Garde over the last two weeks; Patrick Mullins rides him in preference to Soll, so he looks the number one Irish hope. Experience has been important in this race (two of the last five winners were on their thirteenth chase start when winning the NH Chase) so Soll has to overcome inexperience if he is to win, having only had two chase starts to date. Others not to have had at least three chase starts are Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You and Daffern Seal. Entering the race off the back of a decent effort is also a must; only two of the last 28 winners failed to finish in the first four last time out. More importantly, seven of the last ten winners finished first or second on their most recent start. On that basis I would be against Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad, Our Island and Strongbows Legend. Paul Nicholls would have been hoping for a significantly better race record than just one placed horse from 13 starters (of which nine started in the first five in the betting) and his Harry The Viking in the colours of Sir Alex Ferguson has been the long-time NH Chase ante-post favourite. SHORT LIST FOUR COMMANDERS TEAFORTHREE UNIVERSAL SOLDIER BLEINHEIM BROOK LIVELY BARON CONCLUSION Plenty survive the negative stats as, amazingly, there are no five or six-year-olds to oppose this year (perhaps connections are learning?). Allee Garde and Alfie Spinner arguably have the strongest form but neither won or finished in the first two last time out. The well-fancied Harry The Viking represents a top yard with a poor record in the race, which is a concern, so maybe we could have a mini-upset or bigger; seven of the last nine winners have started at a double figure price. FOUR COMMANDERS is a full brother to no less than the Gold Cup winner Kicking King and has shaped like the four mile trip could be what he wants when running well in defeat this season in good class races. Nina Carberry’s booking also catches the eye. TEAFORTHREE hared off too quick in the Feltham but has impressed either side of that and stamina is definitely his strong suit – he looks the pick of the British challenge. UNIVERSAL SOLDIER didn’t beat a lot at Towcester last time but he did it by 52 lengths. He also looks like an out-and-out stayer so he could finish in the mix, as could BLENHEIM BROOK, who runs here in preference to three other entries at this meeting and the Midlands National on Saturday. Lucinda Russell does very well with her few Cheltenham runners at all meetings in and out of the Festival and he could be the sneaky each-way overpriced horse, coming off a convincing defeat of Lie Forrit last time. LIVELY BARON represents Donald McCain and isn’t too far behind Harry The Viking on two pieces of form; he arrives here after an easy win last time out. Court Red Handed also survives the negative trends (and was second last time out) but I have to draw the line at five for the short list. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE Since its inception in 1971, the Irish have won 16 renewals including four of the last six. Willie Mullins has been responsible for two of their last three and he runs Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark. Ireland’s most influential guide has been the Deloitte Hurdle over 2m2f at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day which Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace all contested before winning this prize, and it was won this season by Benefficent who beat Sous Les Cieux by just over a length. The result may have been different but for a mistake two out by the runner-up who shaped like he would love this extra 3f. Since 1974 only French Holly has won for horses aged seven or older, which is a statistic that counts against the likes of Baldadash, Fiulin, Natural High and Sunny Ledgend. Secret Edge is the only 4-year-old but you have to go back to Crystal Spirit in 1991 to find the last winner from that age group. Pattern-race form has been far more important than is the case for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, as only two of the last 14 winners had not contested a graded race over hurdles before; for that reason I am against Baldadash, Close House, Nagpur, Natural High, Nelson’s Bridge, Sunny Ledgend and The Tracey Shuffle. We must also concentrate on in-form horses as just one of the last 28 winners did not finish first or second last time out, which goes against Baldadash, Double Ross, Make Your Mark and Secret Edge. I don’t know what to make of Nicky Henderson’s woeful 0-23 record and especially as just two of those have finished any higher than tenth since 1990. On that basis, do I really want to back Simonsig at a relatively skinny price or his other runner, Nelson’s Bridge? That said, had Bobs Worth not been switched late in the day from the Neptune to the Albert Bartlett last season, he may well have ended that hoodoo given he posted an higher official rating in victory in that three-miler than First Lieutenant managed when winning this prize. SHORT LIST SOUS LES CIEUX MONKSLAND BATONNIER COTTON MILL CONCLUSION A five or six-year-old in the top six in the betting that finished or first or second last time out has won 24 of the last 26 runnings so I make no excuses for short listing the leading fancies that qualify. Simonsig isn’t shortlisted, however, given his trainer’s dreadful record in the race; neither is Make Your Mark who was only third last time. A bit harsh as that was in a Grade 1 race behind Boston Bob and on heavy ground he hated so I can see him go well back on better ground. SOUS LES CIEUX would be the trends pick having proved himself in pattern races, contested the best guide last time out when a bit unlucky in second, and his stable have won two of the last four Neptunes. MONKSLAND is also Irish-trained (Noel Meade, who won this race with Nicanor), has pattern-race winning form, won last time out and should love this decent ground so he too is very much a big player. BATONNIER may be best of the Brits though if they were undecided until late whether to run here rather than the Coral Cup, that could suggest that they may not quite view him as good enough but he is progressing quickly and is tough so can battle on into a top four position. I am guessing a little who may squeeze into the final slot in the top six in the betting and suspect it could be COTTON MILL who is 3-3 over hurdles and won a Grade 2 event last time out at Warwick and could just be under-rated for the John Ferguson yard. RSA CHASE Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three negative patterns, kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year which is what three big fancies in Grands Crus, First Lieutenant and Join Together will be attempting to overcome. The fastish ground would worry me for the latter as they thinking he was one for the 4m NH Chase earlier in the season and the other worry is that this race takes place on the Old Course whereas his impressive win in December was on the stiffer New Course. If the Feltham winner, Grands Crus, wins then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed. It is worth noting, however, that five horses to finish placed or fourth in the Feltham have won which brings in the third, Bobs Worth, who was also second in the Reynoldstown Chase and five placed horses from that race have gone on to win as well compared to just one winner. No RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie. The latter stat would also be against Grands Crus as it would Mr Moonshine, Call The Police and Walkon. Last year’s favourite also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience, having had just two chases over fences beforehand, whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles – not good if you fancy Call The Police. For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years, so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start but this year’s winner, Last Instalment, has been ruled out through injury so the race is represented by the runner-up and third, Call The Police and Lambro. Both are trained by Willie Mullins, who has had three winners and two seconds in this race. I bet he really wanted to run Sir Des Champs though but the owner relies on First Lieutenant instead who looks the pick of the Irish challenge going for a fourth straight win. Paul Nicholls, with two winners since 2006, has the best record of the Brits and trains Join Together. Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings and make up most of this year’s field with only Call The Police (9), Mr Moonshine (8) and Walkon (8) the exceptions. With regard to Call The Police, note that novices aged 9+ have struggled as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those – 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993. Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so Lambro, Walkon and Mr Moonshine are not for me. SHORT LIST BOBS WORTH CANNINGTON BROOK (FIRST LIEUTENANT) CONCLUSION Grands Crus may have the class to overcome his statistical negatives but I wouldn’t want to be paying at around 6/4 to find out. Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences; only Bobs Worth and Cannington Brook qualify on all counts. BOBS WORTH has placed in the right two races (Feltham & Reynoldstown), is 3-3 at Cheltenham, represents a top class yard with a victory in this race before and won the Albert Bartlett at last year’s Festival, as did Weapon’s Amnesty before he won here, so is very much the trends pick. CANNINGTON BROOK could be the each-way value. He is not flashy but that is the profile of most horses to run well in the RSA and he could not have been much more impressive that when winning easily at Haydock last time; he is certainly not one to be underestimated despite being forgotten about in the markets. Picking one more for the shortlist I would go with FIRST LIEUTENANT given he is a previous Festival winner and the Irish have won the last three runnings. He fails on stats not having run during the same calendar year but he arrives here off exactly the same break as last season before he won the Neptune. SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE Although Sizing Europe has plenty in his favour, for those wanting to steam in at a shortish price it maybe worth noting that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chase winners were beaten when attempting to defend their title the following season and nine of those started favourite or second-favourite. Should Big Zeb win, he would become only the third winner to regain his crown having lost it, following Royal Relief and Moscow Flyer. Previous Festival form is a recurring theme in these championship races, especially the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and 20 of the last 27 winners have won or finished placed at this meeting in the past – an obvious pointer to the last two winners of this race, Sizing Europe and Big Zeb. The other pair of the declared octet to place at this meeting in the past are Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, who were second in last year’s Arkle and Jewson respectively. Two placed horses in the Arkle, Buck House and Barnbrook Again, have also won the Champion Chase the following season since 1986 so Finian’s Rainbow supporters can be encouraged a little by that. The best guide by a country mile, however, has been the Tingle Creek Chase won by Sizing Europe, having featured eight of the last 11 winners. He beat Kauto Stone by eight lengths on that occasion with Wishfull Thinking back in fifth after treating it like the Prix de l’Abbaye. Gauvain fell at the eighth fence. Last season’s renewal and the Tied Cottage Chase fare next best featuring four winners apiece in the last ten years and both witnessed Sizing Europe beat Big Zeb into second. The Irish have had a terrific run of things lately, winning five of the last nine runnings; four of which were 1-2s. In fact, Sizing Europe led home an Irish 1-2-3-4 last season, underlining the strength in depth of Irish two-mile chasing of late (or highlighting the weakness of the British challenge) and they will be disappointed not to win it again with either Sizing Europe or Big Zeb. Realt Dubh gives the Irish a third winner but championship races at the Festival are very rarely won by seasonal debutants. Paul Nicholls has by far the best record of the home defence with four winners and five placed horses since 1999 and has switched Kauto Stone from the Ryanair to this race. Given that ten of the last 13 winners started at no bigger than 5/1 (29 of the last 30 started no bigger than 11/1), I don’t suggest you look too far away from the obvious and nine of the last ten winners had previously won a Grade 1 race which counts against I’m So Lucky and Gauvain. Big Zeb is up against it statistically being an 11-year-old, given that only Moscow Flyer has won aged 11 or older since 1977. SHORT LIST SIZING EUROPE KAUTO STONE FINIAN’S RAINBOW CONCLUSION Ten-year-olds have won twice in fairly recent times (One Man and Martha’s Son) so that wouldn’t put me off SIZING EUROPE. The fact that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chasers have been defeated is the niggle but he is a better horse this season than when he won last year’s Champion Chase and this is a weaker race as well, so what is not to like except the price? Personally, I think any odds-against is a good price, he is so much better than these if on his game and he has won the three key guides (last year’s race, Tingle Creek and Tied Cottage) in the last year. With Big Zeb being an 11-year-old, I have to look to KAUTO STONE and FINIAN’S RAINBOW as the horses that would be most likely to take advantage if the favourite underperforms and. Kauto Stone was second in the Tingle Creek, which has been by far the best guide, and is also trained by Paul Nicholls who has a fantastic record in the race. The worry with him would be quickening ground but he is only six whereas the big three are aged 9, 10 an 11 so he is the one with most scope to improve. Last year’s Arkle has been traditionally a good guide, though that is normally the winner rather than the runner-up but Finian’s Rainbow should hit the frame and is probably the safest each-way bet of the race. He is still improving and the small field will be in his favour. CORAL CUP The Irish have to be respected and when Carlito Brigante won very easily last season he was recording a seventh win for the raiders, which is terrific going given that they have supplied less than one-fifth of the total runners since this race was run in 1993. Their representatives this year are Carlito Brigante (off a 13lbs higher mark), Final Approach (10lbs higher than when winning last season’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle), Stonemaster (first time visor) and Silverhand (going well in this race two years ago until almost brought down 2 out and is 4lbs higher this time). The best British guide has been the Betfair Trophy at Newbury in mid-February, as it has featured three Coral Cup winners from the last seven occasions it has beaten the weather and looked a mighty strong renewal this season featuring the winners of endless big-race handicaps. Contenders from this year’s race are Get Me Out Of Here (2nd), Abergavenny (9th), Third Intention (10th) and Final Approach (18th). Six of the last nine winners of this viciously competitive handicap had also won on their last start so do not fail to underestimate the value of last-time-out victory. It is also worth recalling that fractionally under half of all handicap hurdle winners at the Festival (29-60) were won by last-time-out winners from under 20% representation. Last time out winners are Third Intention, Tenor Nivernais, Star Of Angels, Poole Master, Cape Dutch and Balgarry. Only four of the 18 winners had not won earlier in the season which puts me off Get Me Out Of Here, Spirit River, Stonemaster, Saphir River (never run in Britain or Ireland so a chance the Handicapper has guessed incorrectly with him though), Silverhand, Veiled, Megastar (though he has been suffering with a tooth abcess that he is over now) and Act Of Kalanisi. On the weights stats, no winner has officially been rated higher than 147 which is not good for Get Me Out Of Here, Carlito Brigante, Third Intention, Featherbed Lane and Final Approach. Also consider the freshness angle as three of the last six winners did not run during the same calendar year from low representation which brings in Golan Way, Spirit River (won this race two years ago), First Fandango, Saphir River and Silverhand. You may also want to put an extra tick by the name of second-season hurdlers, as they have been responsible for six of the last seven winners, and a red marker through horses aged eight or older, as only one of their 99 subsequent contenders since Top Cees won in 1998 has won despite them accounting for just under one-third of the total runners. Horses aged 8+ are Get Me Out Of Here, Golan Way, Cockney Trucker, Shoreacres, Silverhand, Star Of Angels, Consigliere, Son Of Flicka and Dare Me. SHORT LIST ABERGAVENNY POOLE MASTER BALGARRY TENOR NIVERNAIS FIRST FANDANGO CONCLUSION I make it that 9 of the 28 runners survive the negative patterns but we can’t have them all so I am concentrating on second-season hurdlers to finalise the short list as they have won 6 of the last 7 runnings. ABERGAVENNY tops the list having also run in the Betfair Trophy which is a good guide to the Coral Cup. He was also third in the Greatwood Hurdle here in November so has proved he handles a competitive big field handicap at Cheltenham. TENOR NIVERNAIS would probably want more rain but is a last-time-out winner and second season hurdler for a yard already with one Coral Cup in the bag so he is of interest. FIRST FANDANGO is a second-season hurdler that arrives off a break and both of those are positive stats. Fourth to Rock On Ruby the last time we saw him, he could be one at a big price to hit the frame for each-way purposes. Cape Dutch is a novice to be respected and his Musselburgh form with Cotillion could see both go well. Knight Pass is another second season hurdler to consider who survives the negative patterns. The other pair to really catch the eye are David Pipe’s POOLE MASTER and BALGARRY given his trainer has been the man for the Festival handicaps of late and both won last time out in a manner that suggested they are well ahead of the Handicapper so a 5lb penalty may not be enough to stop them. FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE The most intriguing statistic is that all seven winners were beaten on their first two hurdling starts and it is almost an identical story for the novice handicap chase equivalent race at this meeting where all but one of its seven winners had also failed to win on their first two starts at their new discipline. For that reason I am not a fan of Sportsmaster, Kapga De Cerisy, Kie, Moujik Borget, Ulck De Linn, Dark And Dangerous, Gorgeous Sixty, Une Artiste, Ardlui or Royal Bonsai. Kazlian won his second start over hurdles but meets so many positive criteria I want to keep him on board. The problem for connections, however, is that if their horse has been beaten on its first two hurdling starts then they are likely to have to seriously pull their finger out on their final qualifying run to force their way into the race, so no surprise to see five of the seven winners enter this race directly off the back of a win (brings in Argocat, Edeymi, Kapga De Cerisy, Kazlian, Vendor, Royal Bonsai and Lemon Drop Kid). It is also worth taking on board that four of the seven winners were either French-breds or French imports and those same figures also apply to horses from the top third in the handicap. Kapga De Cerisy, Colebrooke and Dark And Dangerous won at Sandown in February and three of the last five Fred Winter winners had won at the Esher track If you don’t believe that Flat race class is a significant factor then maybe think again as three of the seven winners were the highest rated Flat horse in the race; this is a big stat considering that just one horse can claim the mantle of being the highest-rated horse in the race from the Flat (unless joint top-rated of course) and the race attracts over 20 runners. Kazlian was rated 95 on the Flat so has to be a big player being the best horse form the Flat in the race. He is trained by David Pipe, who, with a winner, two seconds and third in the last five years, has clearly set his stall out to win this race. Given that fillies have been heavily outnumbered, they have a remarkably good record, having won three of the last six runnings; Une Artiste represents them this time alongside Gorgeous Sixty and Jackie’s Solitaire, SHORT LIST VENDOR EDEYMI ARGOCAT (KAZLIAN) LEMON DROP RED CONCLUSION KAZLIAN fits plenty of stats (last time out winner, French import, best Flat horse, trainer record in race) that I still want him on my side despite winning his second hurdles start. I usually prefer horses beaten on both their first two hurdling starts for handicapping purposes. EDEYMI and ARGOCAT appeal most of the Irish who have won two of the seven runnings. I like the fact both were beaten on their first time hurdling starts but were last time out winners and also their stables as they are both very cute when it comes to laying one out for a big handicap. VENDOR is a very short price but I can’t knock him on stats and he hails from the Alan King yard that fares so well in juvenile hurdles and went close with his two runners last year. By all accounts he is as good as their Triumph Hurdle fancies which means he is at least a stone well in if true. For a likely big-priced outsider LEMON DROP RED also has that profile I like of two defeats and then a win in three starts over hurdles and he might be the each-way horse at a big price. WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER The Irish lead 14-5 heading into the 2010 renewal but Cheltenian gave the home team a second victory in as many years last season so the vice-like grip of the Irish has started to weaken. On both occasions, it was also a 1-2 for the Brits which somewhat bizarrely was also the scenario on all five occasions when the Irish were sent home with their tails between their legs. We should not lose sight of the fact that the Irish have still won almost three times as many runnings (of which Willie Mullins was responsible for six) and from only approximately one-third of the total runners. Mullins runs Champagne Fever and Pique Sous this time in search of his Magnificent Seven. Just two of the 19 winners were beaten on their previous start though that should be balanced by the fact that the vast majority of runners will enter the race directly off the back of a victory. Still, that puts me off Glenwood Present, Ifandbutwhynot, Piano Concerto, Village Vic and Horatio Hornblower. Four of the last five winners entered the race unbeaten. Irish-bred horses have also accounted for 15 of those 19 winners but French-breds finally got on the board last season when Cheltenian put an end to their dreadful record where previously only one of their 25 runners had made the frame. Bumpers are, of course, all about potential but don’t lose sight of pure form either as Liberman, Cork All Star and Dunguib were unquestionably the clear form choices of their respective years. Given the terrible record of horses that have not run since Boxing Day at the Festival as whole (just Quevega has won in the last two years), it is therefore eye-opening that five of the last nine winners were put away specifically for this race having won before the new year, which could be significant, and all but three winners had not won a bumper comprising 14+ runners in the history of the race which is against leading fancies such as New Year’s Eve, Jezki and the Willie Mullins pair of Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. Finally, just five of the 19 winners could be found outside the first six in the betting so maybe don’t stray too far past the obvious. SHORT LIST MOSCOW MANNON ROYAL GUARDSMAN SIR JOHNSON (PIQUE SOUS) CONCLUSION MOSCOW MANNON’s latest victory when winning his third bumper (under a penalty) is probably the best piece of bumper form on offer; he looks the pick of the Irish challenge. Big money offers from prominent owners have been turned down for him and he could be the one the punters come for on the day – they usually hammer something. ROYAL GUARDSMAN could give Colin Tizzard his second winner of this race in the last three years, following on from Cue Card. Impressive at Ascot last time, he has won a bumper comprising 14+ runners, is Irish-bred and strikes me as the best of the British. SIR JOHNSON is 4-4 and been saved for this since winning at Aintree in the autumn (can’t run if have had 5 runs in bumpers) where he had Royal Guardsman behind. PIQUE SOUS may not have won a bumper with 14+ runners but Walsh rides and Mullins has won this race six times which I think compensates for that and I can’t really not have at least one Mullins horse on the short list as he is chasing a seventh win in this contest.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: jump racing 14/3/2012 Some fine write up's there Mrs / Miss